DOMINATE: Green Bay Packers vs Bears: Why Protecting Jordan Love Will DECIDE This Game

DOMINATE: Green Bay Packers vs Bears: Why Protecting Jordan Love Will DECIDE This Game

The path to victory for the Green Bay Packers on Sunday against the Chicago Bears is simple. It starts with protecting Jordan Love. You are Locked on Packers, your daily Green Bay Packers podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. [Music] You were locked on Packers, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I’m Peter Bowski and I cover the Packers for the Leap, a newsletter I would love for you to subscribe to. Follow me on Twitter, Peter_owski. Follow the podcast on the social medias. Subscribe to the podcast. Wherever you get podcast, Spotify, iTunes, wherever you get podcast, you’ll find Locked on Packers, the number one Packers podcast on the internet and the show for fans who know what happened. They want to know why and how. Thanks to everyone who makes Locked on Packers their first listen every day. We hope you like starting your day with us as much as we like starting our day with you. Today’s episode brought to you by our friends at FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. And everydayers posting your Spotify wrapped, we see you. We see you. Thank you so much. Um, we had a listener, Paul. He has spent over 8,000 minutes in 2025 listening to Locked on Packers. That is like three work weeks that you spent with us. And we are so so grateful for all of you for all the time. You don’t have to spend 8,000. You could spend a,000. You could spend 15 minutes listening to Locked on Packers. We appreciate you. Today on the show, we’re going to talk about Caleb Williams, the Enigma. We are going to talk about the Bears and how much they have to change, if at all, their offensive structure to play at the Green Bay Packers. But we are going to start with what I think is the most important thing for this Packers team this week. Everything starts with Jordan Love and the pass protection because if you protect Jordan Love against this Chicago Bears defense that does not rush the passer well, everything good comes from that because he’s not going to turn the ball over from a clean pocket. Now, there was the interception against the Panthers where he, you know, tries to make a play down the field and heaves one. I can live with those. Those are fine. Especially if you make the tackle deep, like if you if you arm punt it, first down is not my favorite. But on third down, throw the ball down the field, not that big a deal. I think the Packers are going to come with a game plan where they are going to be aggressive. You can take just transport Thursday against the the Lions. Spven Johnson, it’s the Lions team. defense, a lot of similarities. Bring them, bring that game plan, port it right over. I think this Packers team is going to come out aggressive. They’re going to want to throw the football on this team because down to down, it’s not a good defense. It’s just not. And Dusty Eively had this great stat where he looked at, okay, what is their their pressure time? They have one of the worst time to pressures in the NFL when they don’t blitz. Okay. So, what do you do in a situation like that? Well, you got to blitz. Well, they have one of the worst times to pressure in the NFL when they blitz. They are 31st in time to pressure when they don’t blitz. And they are 31st in time to pressure when they do blitz. This defense is damned if they do and damned if they don’t. As long as you don’t throw them the football. And if you protect Jordan Love, he has shown he can protect the football. Three interceptions on the season. And you remember all of them. And you can probably remember also the the Carolina game where he almost throws the interception, throws the would would have been an interception, maybe would have been a pick six, but in in his opponent endzone, like it’s not like it was, you know, anything anything crazy like from his own 20 or something like that. He has been judicious with the football. He has been accurate with the football. And even if Matt Laflur wants to bring a conservative game plan, that’s okay. This is one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. So even if you’re just like run the ball, hit your shot plays, kind of bring a Ben Johnsonesque approach to all of this, that’s fine. I think they’re going to be able to hit those explosive plays. The Packers don’t need to hit the explosive plays to move the ball in this game. It can be like all the things that drove you nuts about Matt Laflur all year. they can do in this game truly. They can run the ball a lot. They can throw the ball underneath. Just possess the ball, move the ball down the field. This offense for the Bears is not good enough, not consistent enough to make you pay for that approach. And even in the game that they lost to the Panthers, they moved the ball at will in that game. I think they punted once in that game. You had the interception from Jordan Love where he pressed a little bit too much trying to get the ball down the field, but Savon Williams fumbled in plus territory and they missed a field goal. Well, this just my opinion. Don’t do that. Don’t do that. But you can’t call the game worried about that kind of stuff. You have to come out and say this defense cannot stop us if we play our game. That was the whole point of bringing up what happened with Evan Williams and what he said because this team knows if they play well, we saw it against the Lions. Like they’re coming in with so much confidence. I know the Bears are too, but the Bears are still the little brother. And if you come out fast and it’s going to be freezing cold. I mean, it’s going to be single digits by the end of the game. You can make them go, “Okay, this is the same old stuff. Same old Packers Bears. And I’m not saying this is going to be a blowout by any means. I have not predicted that once. Bears fans are acting like just because I’m posting statistics that I’m saying this is going to be a blowout. The reality is the stats in just about every category favor the Packers. That’s not my fault. I didn’t invent math. I I I didn’t invent these statistics. It’s just the reality. It’s not a very good defense. They don’t pressure the quarterback well. Down to down, play to play. And the run defense stinks. What more do you need to know? They turn the ball over at an incredible rate. And I go back to 2022 when I had to fight with Vikings fans all week. All week. That 2022 Packers team, nothing to write home about. They weren’t very special. They weren’t particularly good. They beat the brakes off that Minnesota Vikings team. And that Minnesota Vikings team is the fakest team of all time. Like they really are the fakest team of all time. I don’t think the Bears are that fake because I think what they do running the ball is real. And I think the turnover stuff is real. But six and one in close games, these fourth quarter wins, I mean, winning the game because you blocked a field goal or winning the game because you returned a kickoff. the the Lions or the the Bears won a game earlier this year on a on a 50 plus yard field goal where they returned the kick and they gained nine yards of offense on the final drive. That’s not Caleb Williams being clutch. That’s you getting lucky on a kick return and then making a field goal. Like that’s what this team is. And at some point the bill is going to come due. And maybe it’s not maybe it’s not this week. Maybe it’s not. But in two weeks it’ll come due. Like the Packers are going to are going to win one of these games. I’m telling you right now, they are going because they are just the better team. The matchup favors the Packers. And the longer this week goes and the more I look at it and the more I watch the film, I just go, this is this is the Lions game. Only you have a less accurate quarterback, you have a less consistent offense on the other side of the ball, and you have a worse defense. And the Packers just scored 30 on the Lions. Now, the field conditions is what is going to give me pause here. But that’s why I say if you protect Jordan Love, he’s going to put the ball where it needs to be. He was electric last week. Electric. And now you’re going to put Matthew Golden and Jaden Reed back in this offense. Maybe you’re going to put Marshon Lynch back or Marshall Lloyd, not Marshall Lynch. Marshon Lynch would be a hell of a player in this offense. Marshon Lloyd back in this offense. And maybe you don’t this week. And I can understand not. It’s going to be freezing cold. Uh it’s going to be pretty cold in Denver. It’s going to be pretty cold in Chicago. So, at some point, you just kind of kind of throw him into the fire if you feel like he can give the offense something. Maybe you have a package of plays for him this week. I think that would make a lot of sense in a lot of ways. I think 21 personnel with him and Chris Brooks where you’re trying to throw little screens or you’re trying to, you know, get him out on a route and have Chris Brooks be the pass protector. Every number I look at, especially for the Packers offense, makes me go, “This is a mismatch. This is a mismatch.” And Matt Laflur has consistently had answers for Dennis Allen. You want to play man coverage against the Packers? Good luck. Here’s every switch release and every double move in the book. And if you can’t rush the passer, you’re you’re not going to beat this team. Well, the Bears can’t rush the passer. And even when they blitz, they they kind of can’t rush the passer. They resorted to allout pressure, some zero cover zero stuff against Jayen Herz. Jaylen Herz is the most blissed quarterback in the NFL this year. I just don’t think that plan works against Jordan Love, who is by by, you know, whatever metric you want to look at, the best quarterback against the Blitz this year. He’s also the best quarterback from a clean pocket this year. The teams that have been able to make him uncomfortable have been able to get home with four. The Chicago Bears team can’t do it. They can’t do it. And I look at it and I go, I think the coaching matchup is pretty even offensively. I think Ben Johnson’s a really, really, really good offensive coach. I think Matt Lafler is a really, really good offensive coach. The Packers have the better quarterback. They have the better defense. They have the better team. They are six and a half point favorites for a reason. And Caleb Williams has just not been the guy this year except in the fourth quarter. And I want to talk about the mystery of Caleb Williams next on Locked on Packers. NFL Sundays move fast. One big play and suddenly everything feels different. That’s what makes live betting with FanDuel so exciting. You’re not just watching the game, you’re reacting to it in real time. With FanDuel, you can place bets as the action unfolds. Every drive, every momentum swing, every highlight moment. Live betting at its best. When the game starts to shift, a receiver gets hot, a defense tightens up, or the momentum flips after a turnover. FanDuel lets you jump in in the moment. Live spreads and moneylines adjust instantly. Player props update as guys heat up. So, if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit FanDuel.com and place your live bets all season long. FanDuel, the game was fast and so can you. I don’t know what to make of Caleb Williams. because I see him make these spectacular plays. The the touchdown last week to Cole KT was awesome. Rolling to his left, a perfect pass off platform, all that good stuff. And then he will from the pocket take a three-step drop and just air mail a throw by five 10 yards. It’s just like what is what is that? He’s been spectacular this year avoiding sacks. some of the highlight plays. I mean, he reminds me right now and and maybe Bears fans will take this as slander. What’s up, Bears fans? Of Kyler Murray because the the the wild plays are there. The escapability is there. He can make plays with he he’s chaotic when he runs. He kind of reminds me of Kyler who like is got this weird gate to him. Caleb has the same sort of weird gate to him, but he’s fast and he’s slippery and he’s he’s tough to take down. But the downtodown consistency is just not there. One of the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. If you if you look at um adjusted completion percentage, so taking away just just aimed passes when he’s trying to throw to someone. So take away throwaways, take away drops, he is 40th out of 42 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage. He is one spot behind JJ McCarthy. The only quarterbacks he’s better than in adjusting completion percentage, Davis Mills and Dylan Gabriel. He’s just not an accurate quarterback. That is right now. And maybe he will become accurate. And and Bears fans, they they want to tell me all day, look at Josh Allen, look at these other quarterbacks. He he can become accurate. Maybe that’s true. right now he’s not an accurate quarterback. So, what what defensively do you do? Are you going to just make him play quarterback? Are you are you going to stop the run like add a add a guy in the box and say, “We’re not going to let you run the football, Caleb Williams. We dare you to beat us. We don’t think you can.” Because I I kind of think that’s the right way to do this. I kind of think that’s the way you handle Caleb Williams right now. You don’t have to blitz him. You don’t have to send extra pressure because even when he has time to throw, he will air mail throws. They’re going to get some explosive plays in this game. It is what this offense is built on. That being said, and we’re going to talk about this in in a in a little bit, the Packers have one of the best explosive play defenses in the NFL. Now, it’s it is the case and these things can be true simultaneously and I know Bears fans look it’s it’s hard to keep track of all this stuff and they don’t know what good quarterbacking looks like unless they’re watching the Packers and that’s been true from you know time in memorial unless you’re a 70-year-old Packer or 70-y old Bears fan you have. You don’t know what good quarterbacking looks like. You’ve never seen a good Bears quarterback really in your life. It’s also true that in the fourth quarter he has made some spectacular plays and some spectacular throws to ice games as he did against the Eagles or to come back and win games. Now they they have they have had some good luck in some of these close games. They’ve also made some clutch plays. And so it is both the case that Caleb Williams has not been an accurate or consistent passer. Ben Johnson has said as much like they are winning in spite of the passing game. I don’t think that is suddenly going to change. Not not in December, not this late in the season. I just it it seems unlikely to me that that will be the case. Especially Roma Dunce has been hurt. He’s been playing hurt. Um if you listen to his dad, uh he’s been open a bunch and and you know Caleb has has missed him on a bunch of throws. I think he’s you know he’s got a 45. Adun has a 45% uncatchable throw rate in on targets to his direction. So that’s a that’s a Kyler Murray aka Kale Williams uh problem. But in these fourth quarters he’s made plays and the Packers know that because in the fourth quarter of both games last year he went down and led last last minute drives that could have won them both of those games and did win them the second game. about, you know, Malik Willis and and all that stuff, right? I understand the second game the Packers were not necessarily trying to win. Jordan Love gets hurt. Christian Watson gets hurt in that game. Josh Jacobs doesn’t play in the second half. They sat a bunch of guys and did not really try and win that game the same way that they like they like they tried a little at first. They were losing. Jordan Love gets hurt. They kind of stopped trying and then all of a sudden they’re they’re like in a position to win the game and and the Bears go down and and Jeff Hafley has a brain fart. Matt Laflur has a brain fart at the end of the game. I I don’t know what happened there. I called it one of the most embarrassing losses of Matt Lafllor’s tenure because of the way the game ended. But the Packers blocked a field goal to win the game against the Bears the first time around. And it was because Caleb Williams drove them down into field goal range to kick the game-winning field goal. When the game is just go make a play, Caleb Williams can do that. And that’s what makes him such a difficult quarterback to make sense of. because he’s got he’s got a little bit of that Jameus Winston in him. Not the interceptions part, but the variance part. He’ll make the greatest throw you’ve ever seen into a window that doesn’t exist. And then three consecutive plays after that, he’ll make decisions where you’re just sort of like, “What is what is that?” Or he’ll make throws where he’s just like, “What is that?” He’ll bill from a clean pocket, throw the ball away. He’ll air air mail a hitch or an out. And it’s just sort of like what what what am I watching? It doesn’t make sense from a Packers perspective. What you have to do then is make it so number one, ideally at the end of the game, it’s just not close and you know they’re they’re they’re playing for aesthetics at the end. That would be ideal. But the other piece of this is you have to make it so he’s got to actually play quarterback. He’s got to sit back and and make plays from a muddy pocket with pressure in his face. You’ve you’ve got to be able to do that. And and he made the the throw that he made. I think it was to Roma Odun at the end on fourth down where he just kind of throws the ball. Odun makes a great play along the sideline. Well, if you don’t have Odun, now you’re making that throw to like Zakias or Burden or someone else. And it’s just not the same sort of proposition. Those guys, that’s not what those guys do. And so I think the Packers have a I wouldn’t say difficult decision because again, if you just just do nothing and let him play, he’s going to make the mistakes. He’s going to make the unforced errors like in tennis, like he’s going to have the forehand and just miss it. Like he’s going to miss it out. And I don’t think you have to do anything that special. I don’t think you have to show him all sorts of funky looks. I don’t think you have to try and confuse him. But the Packers can do that, too. They’ve been doing this the last couple weeks where they’ve been showing funky pressures. They’ve been dropping Micah Parsons. They’ve been overloading one side knowing that the the protection is going to slide to Micah Parsons. And so now you’ve got a free rusher. They’ve been trying to manufacture things in a different sort of way rather than just play fourman rush in the middle of the season. They played way too much fourman rush rather than saying let’s use Micah Parsons as the the ultimate queen on the chess board and allow his gravity to affect the game. We saw that against the Vikings. We saw that against the Lions. And here’s the thing, the Packers just played this game. They just played Ben Johnson’s offense. Now, called by Dan Campbell, so it’s a little different. I think Ben Johnson’s going to have some specials in this game. He’s going to have some trick plays in this game. He’s going to have some some counters, some counter punches in this game. No doubt about it. But that’s what you have Xavier McKini for. That’s what you have Evan Williams for. to be there when you need them to prevent those plays from becoming the the touchdown that can swing the momentum in Chicago’s favor. There’s also the cold weather part of this. That ball is going to be a brick to throw. So, if you’re an inaccurate quarterback, an inconsistent quarterback with your ball placement, it is now harder to make those plays. And the the Bears have been one of the league leaders in drops this year. Top 10 in drops. I mean, depending on who is charting these things, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, something like that. Now, even accounting for the drops, Caleb’s completion percentage is is bad. He’s under 60% on the year, but the adjusted completion percentage is not much better even if you account for the drops because he’s just not been accurate enough. So, I don’t think the Packers are going to have to do anything that special. He’s not going to throw the ball into harm’s way. He has one of the lowest um tight window throw rates in the NFL this year. He’s been throwing to open receivers most of the time, the vast majority of the time, and still missing guys. So, you don’t even have to play the stickiest man coverage to to, you know, get him to make offtarget throws. But it’s a rookie left tackle. Micah Parsons is going to be over there a lot. They’re going to slide the protection that way a lot. Michael Parson is going to get doubled a lot. So Rashan Garry, Chris Brooks, if he plays, Kings leaning Barre who played really well last week. This front is coming off one of the best pressure performances of the season. Jared Goff played really well under pressure. He made some big throws with guys bearing down on him. But guess what? By the end of the game, this defense wore out the Lions. They they the metaphor I’ve been using is they have been a boa constrictor. They just gradually squeeze the light out of you, life out of you, light the light, too, until you’re gone. And I think you’re going to see that in this game from this defense. Now, how much do the the Bears make adjustments to the way that they play to attack where the Packers are weakest? We’ll talk about that next on Locked on Packers. The Packers run defense is the best run defense in the NFL against outside runs. The Bears, for as for as cute as it looked, all of the angles that they created, the pre-nap motions that they they created, all the things that they forced the Eagles to do to react and and you got to spin that safety this way because we know when you’re going to spin the safety this way, we’re going to we’re going to react this way. It’s just outside zone. What the Packers have done an excellent job of this year is twofold. They pursue with so much speed. Edin Cooper, Quay Walker has been back practicing, was upgraded to full a full full participant on Thursday in the pads. So, you know, it it seems like he’s on track to play in this game. Their speed makes them a a nightmare for teams trying to run outside. And we saw it last week. Like the Lions could get nothing going. Now, the Lions offensive line this year especially has just not been as good as the Bears offensive line. So, you still have to win your matchups at the point of attack. But the Packers have so many players with speed and instincts. Evan Williams is not a speed player, he’s an instinctive player. Eden Cooper is both. He’s got that speed to get to the outside. But what they do really well is they play discipline on the backside in ways that they did not a year ago or the year before that or the year before that or the year before that or the year before that. DeAndre Swift made his made his money last week with a lot like there were there were just like Mac truck size holes to run through, but he also cut back a number of times to create explosive plays. The Packers are not letting teams do that. They are playing discipline on the backside. So you try and cut it back. You hesitate for a second and all of a sudden you’ve got a linebacker or you’ve got a defensive lineman or a safety on top of you and they rally to the football with purpose, with force, with ferocity. So do they want to become the Bears a more insideheavy team inside zone power? Those sorts of things. The Packers below average this year on inside runs. Elite on outside runs, not as good on inside runs. We saw the Panthers give them a steady dose of inside zone and power and all those things. It’s not who the Bears are though. Most of the time they are calling outside runs. So, how much does Ben Johnson want to get away from what he feels like this team does best? What they did last week with a plum? How much do you want to change that if you’re Ben Johnson? The passing game has a similar set of circumstances. teams have been willing to check the ball down. Kell Williams doesn’t really do that. It’s not that he can’t, it’s just not really the structure of the offense. They they don’t get into five and seven step drops from the gun. it is under center play action and then on on third down it’s you know there’s they’re trying to get the ball down the field and then they they’ve been having to because of you know some of the the issues with their left tackle either keep a tight end in or use that running back in six-man protections. The Packers middle of the field intermediate parts of the field that is where they are vulnerable. Well, the the Bears are 30th in EPA per play on intermediate throws. This is where some of the accuracy issues comes in. This is where some of the Caleb Williams, he’s not a a big guy. He’s not Jordan Love in the pocket, 6’4. He’s 6’1, 6’2. And so, the middle of the field, the access is just not the same when you’re a shorter quarterback. That’s just the reality. Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, those guys are really good players. They did not throw the ball a ton to the middle of the field because they just couldn’t see the middle of the field the same way. How much do the Bears want to adjust what they want to do? Jared Goff hit on a number of plays in breakers, those sorts of middle of the field throws. What what the Bears would rather do is hit that big over or that seam route or that bender. That’s what they want to do. Not intermediate throws, not in that 10 to 19 range, but in that 20 plus range. this offensive passing game is created to to make explosive plays. Well, the Packers, as I mentioned, and as I’ve mentioned all year, have been one of the best explosive play offenses in the NFL. So, what you have to force this Bears team to do is what they might want to do, what the average team might want to do anyway that can run the ball the way that they can. Just run the ball down the field, hold the ball, possess the ball, and make this like the Panthers game where it’s seven, eight possessions in the game and and hope that you can create the turnover or two that’s swinging. It’s just not This is their 30th in short pass rate. They don’t throw the ball quickly. They’re not a quick game team. They’re not just going to throw little slants. They’re not just going to throw little bubble screens. That’s just not really what they do. Well, it’s not what the Packers defend well either. So, how much do you want to change who you are trying to be? How much of this is an ego thing for Ben Johnson? Do you want to show, hey, we can do what we do against this team? because there is value in that going into the week and changing everything about what you want to be, who you are. That’s not a way to inspire confidence in your team. Now, I think some teams their ethos is we’re chameleons. That was the Bill Bich. We can we you know they what was Jonah Gray, maybe that sounds right to me. um he had like 40 carries in a game and was cut within two weeks because they just felt like, hey, we can we can run the ball this week and next week we’re going to throw it 50 times. That was part of their their their mantra as a team, part of their philosophy as a team. I don’t think that’s the Bears. I don’t think that’s Ben Johnson. Ben Johnson is going to do what he does now. He’s gonna he’s going to give you the counters. Okay, you think we’re going to run outside zone. Here’s the boot from outside zone and here’s the play over the top. Packers have been really good defending that stuff. So, how do you strike that balance? I don’t I don’t think there’s an easy answer there. I really don’t. But again, the more I look at this, where the Packers are vulnerable, the Bears don’t thrive. Where the Bears are best, the Packers have good answers. And then on the other side of the ball, the Bears can’t do the things defensively that have given the Packers problems when the Packers have had problems this season. And so for all those reasons, I feel like this is a game where the Packers can win. They can control the game. And this feels like the Detroit game all over to me where the Packers, they will be in control of the game. The Bears will make their runs. They’ll make some big plays. They’ll score some points. But ultimately, it will be a game where the Packers feel like they were in control from start to finish. and they will show that the NFC North still goes through Green Bay and they are a true blue Super Bowl contender. We will be live after the game to break it down. 30 minutes of locked on Packers live on YouTube and then 60 minutes of our Lockdown Packers squad show to bring it all to you. So follow me on the socials. Make sure you subscribe wherever you get podcasts. Get that uh notification when we go live on YouTube by subscribing on YouTube so you can stay locked on Packers.

The Green Bay Packers have a clear path to victory over the Chicago Bears: protect Jordan Love and exploit Chicago’s defensive weaknesses. Peter Bukowski examines why the Packers’ passing attack is poised for success against a Bears defense ranked near the bottom in both pass rush and run-stopping. Can Green Bay’s offensive line keep Love clean and capitalize on explosive plays, or will turnovers level the playing field amid freezing conditions at Lambeau?

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Peter Bukowski, co-founder of The Leap, brings you a daily look at the Green Bay Packers year round with Locked On Packers! Go beyond the latest injury news into what you’re seeing on the field, how it works, and how it might change with new players or against a division rival. It’s the podcast for fans who know what happened, they want to know why and how!

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