32 MLB players have a career WAR over 100 (~1 player every 5 years). Which current players will join them?

27 comments

  2. I’m always worried judge is 5 minutes away from a career ending injury or an injury that ruins his ability

  3. Mookie, Soto, maybe Ohtani if he stays healthy. Trout looking tough after last year. Judge may have too far to climb.

  5. Not Trout. Very slim odds on him with how much he has slowed down from injury

    51/49 on Judge, practically guaranteed 20 WAR in the next 3 years as a conservative estimate, the question is what about after that. He’ll be 36 then which bodes not so well. Hell though he could easily put up another 10 WAR year and then something close the year following so I’m going to say it’s more likely than not he does.

    I think Soto will make it. He’ll transition to DH at some point but because his defense and baserunning (though better now with the steals) is already terrible he’ll put up 5+ WAR for at least a decade because all his value comes from his bat, then another 10 WAR in his final stretch I can believe it

    Mookie won’t be as bad in 2026 in spite of age catching up to him. This year can be chalked down less so to age related decline and moreso his weight loss from sickness, the power differential in his batting metrics is night and day. 25 WAR though is incredibly tough. I’m inclined to say no

    I think Ohtani will make it. I think he can pitch for at least 2 more years, then it’s 6 years of DHing. I think any full two way year for him he will guarantee 9 WAR as a minimum, so 6 years to make up 30 WAR is very tough but still doable for a slugger. The big thing is that the 2 years of pitching is a fairly conservative estimate

    If he pitches for 3 years? 5 years to make 21 WAR. 4 years? 13 WAR in 3 years of DH. I think 60/40 odds Ohtani will get it, especially since he has the single minded ambition to

  6. Of all these guys I think Judge might have the best chance. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Trout finished his career around 90-95

  7. I think it’s Mookie, though he needs a couple of seasons where his hitting bounces back before his fielding falls off. Ohtani is too far IMO. Same with Judge for his age. Soto has time, but he’s also very close to needing to shift out of right field to 1B (where he’d probably be a poor fielder) or DH, which would limit his WAR a lot. I love Trout but I think based on last season he may just be cooked, and a perma-DH does not rack up WAR.

  8. Soto (age plus talent) and Betts (proximity plus talent) are the most likely.

    Trout is a case in point about how hard it can be to predict this. Six years ago, you’d think him a lock…he’s averaged 2.6 WAR since then and isn’t getting any younger

  9. The most likely answer is “none of them”. Before Pujols in 2022, when was the last time a player not associated with PED’s hit 100? Was it Rickey Henderson?

  10. Crazy to think if Judge somehow can keep going at his current pace then he can get to 100 WAR in like 4 years

  11. I don’t think any of these guys will tbh.

    Trout’s body is done, sorry to say. Even 13 more WAR is an uphill battle.

    Judge started too late and will be 34 next season, you can’t just assume he’ll continue to be a GOAT level hitter.

    Soto is young and consistent, but he’s held back by defense. Hard to reach 100 when you can’t put up 8-9 WAR seasons in your prime.

    Ohtani has a shot if he maintains this level for a few more years. But as great as he is, he’s already 31 and only halfway there. And it’s not like he’s never been injured.

    Mookie might have the best chance, but he is 33 and clearly slowing down.

  12. Somebody trade for Trout, we need a career resurgence. If Angels take on even 33% of remaining contract, just do it.

  20. I think y’all are sleeping on Trout. He’s never going to be as good as he used to, but I still think it’s very possible he puts up more than 13 WAR in however many years he has left on his contract. If he can split time at RF and DH and hit to like a .820 OPS, he could do it.

    I want to say Ohtani is too far away, but then again maybe he’ll put up like 30 WAR in the next 3 years and then we have a real conversation.

    Soto is the real wildcard. I want to say no, but he’s young, he’s signed for a long time, and he has a skill set that should age nicely. 60 WAR over 12 years averages out to 5 per year, so he needs a couple of monster years early in the contract before he gets stuck at DH permanently.

    Mookie is too old and too far out for 25 WAR.

    Judge is too old, too far out, and too injury prone for 40 WAR.

  21. If Trout hasn’t gone full-Mattingly yet and can string together 3 more good seasons…

  23. The reality is that all of them need to beat the aging curve by a bit, but Soto probably needs to beat it by the least. Him getting 5-6 war a season just with his bat until 35/36 seems a lot more possible than Judge or Ohtani getting repeated 10 war seasons until their age 38/39 seasons.

    Trout needs three 4+ war seasons to get thereq, but he’s fallen off so hard that idk if he gets there. He still probably has the best shot besides Soto.

    If Mookie can rebound as a hitter and keeps playing good shortstop, he might make it, on the back of a big defensive adjustment.

    Who the hell knows with Ohtani. Dude might blast out a CY young pitching and MVP DH season in the same year and rack up 15 war.

  24. Despite what everyone seems to think in this thread, the most likely is Trout. He’s got 5 more years on his contract, and if he just plays that out he needs to only average 2.5 WAR over that time. That is doable if he bounces back just somewhat. It is certainly an easier path than the other guys in their 30s who can only get there by staying the greatest player in MLB history for several more years.

    Or put another way, which is more likely: Trout makes the All-Star team once in the next 5 years, or Judge has 3 more 8+ WAR seasons at 34+ or older, something only done (who can say how) by Barry Bonds.

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