Are the Edmonton Oilers BACK?

Are the Edmonton Oilers BACK?

Hello Oilers fans, Austin here and welcome to today’s video. Now the Oilers, they’ve won two consecutive games in absolute blowout fashion. They beat the Seattle Kraken 9 to4 and then they followed that up with a 6-2 victory over the Winnipeg Jets. And then it kind of got me thinking, okay, are the Oilers actually back? Do the underlying metrics show that this team is starting to turn the corner? Is there reason for optimism long-term with the club? Or is this just a flash in the pan? Is this just kind of a one-off? We’re seeing the team kind of explode for offense, but they’re going to regress. So, I wanted to take a deep dive at some of the numbers just to see where the Oilers are trending. I’m going to be taking a look at what they’ve been doing throughout the regular season and then what they’ve been doing the last 10 games. I think that’ll give us a good idea whether they’re trending up or down. So, if you end up enjoying today’s video, make sure to hit that like button and if you really like it, make sure to subscribe to the channel. It goes a long way. Thank you all so much for your continued support. My apologies for no day after discussion yesterday, but figured I’d make it up today with just a deep dive analytic video. So, these are always fun to do. I do enjoy them. Also, quick lineup note. Uh Noah Phelp was on the ice at practice today. However, uh he is not going to be playing over the next couple games. He is though able to be activated off LTI on Saturday. So, we’ll keep an eye on Noah Phillips, see if he’s ready to go maybe this weekend into next week because the Others are going on an Eastern Conference road trip. We’ll take a look at that at the end of the video. kind of what their schedule looks like coming up. In the meantime though, let’s take a look at the Oilers numbers. So, are the Engine Oilers back? Their 5v5 regular season numbers are on the left side of the screen. And then their numbers over the last 10 games are on the right. Now, throughout the regular season, the Oilers expected goals for percentage is 49.19%, just under that 50% threshold. But over the last 10 games, they’ve improved that by 1.91%. So, 51.10%. So, that is trending up. The expected goals is trending up over the last 10. Their goals for percentage this season at five on five 45.04% but over the past 10 games it is now at 50%. And scoring a whole bunch against Seattle and Winnipeg will help with those numbers of course that is an increase of 4.96%. Their scoring chances for 46.58% throughout the regular season and over the last 10 games that increases marginally to 47.11%. They are still giving up more scoring chances than they are able to produce, but just at a less frequent rate. Their high danger chances though, this is where I’m starting to see some improvement. High danger chances for 47.27% during the regular season and over the last 10 games, 50.93%. So they are over that 50% range. Anything over 50% when it comes to the scoring chances for high danger chances for expected goals for that is a good thing. and they are trending up in the high danger chances for an increase of 3.66%. That is a good sign moving forward. Their team shooting percentage at five on five throughout the regular season is sitting at 8.97%. However, as we’ve seen, they’ve been scoring a few more goals lately. That has increased to 10.59% over the past 10 games, an increase of 1.62%. Their high danger shooting percentage throughout the regular season is 12%. Not very good. They’re actually dead last in high danger shooting percentage this season. But over the past 10 games, that has increased to 16.66%, which is an increase of 4.66%. So, their shooting percentage, like I said, their their finishing is starting to improve. You’re starting to see some guys put the puck in the net a little bit more frequently. Pod Coulson had that nice goal against the Florida Panthers. He also scored against the Seattle Kraken. You see Matthew Seavoy with a uh three goals in his last two games. So Seavoy and and Pod Coulson, these players, they’re starting to um you know, they’re they’re starting to come alive here and they’re starting to put the puck in the net the way we were all hoping that they’d be able to earlier in the year. High danger save percentage this season is 73.83% which was dead last and over the last 10 games it has increased marginally to 75%. So, they’re still not quite getting the goalending that we would like to see, but it is an improvement. And their overall team save percentage at five on five, 88%, their last 10 games, that increases to 88.94%, which is an increase of 0.94%. Again, the same percentage over the past 10 games. It’s not where you want it to be. I would say the Oilers metrics have been improving in every area, um, including goalending. and you’re starting to see that result in some extra goals and some extra wins. Yes, the Oilers are 54-1 in their last 10 games. But if these last 10 games are anything to go by, you can start to see the numbers. They are trending up. Would I say the Oilers are back though based on what I’m seeing here? No. I don’t think there’s a significant amount of data um showing that they truly are back. I would say that their recent success is mostly just being able to finish a little bit better and they’re getting a few more saves. Stewart Skinner. He’s only given up three goals in his last three starts. So that’s a great sign for Others fans. Stuart Skinner’s game is also starting to trend up. This is also kind of around the time that Stu does heat up. He’s usually very hot in that December, January, February months. We’ve seen that historically in the past. So, if Steu is able to provide a few more saves, if the team’s able to put the puck in the net a few more times, and if they’re able to at least play above water in terms of the high danger chances and the expected goals for uh the Oilers have enough high-end talent on the team where, you know, their game-breaking talent, McDavid, Dryidle, these guys, I can see the Oilers continuing to win some games here, but we do have to take a look at what’s going on for the rest of December and the rest of this home stand as well. The Oilers are currently in the middle of a fivegame home stand. They’ve won two out of three so far with two games to go. They need to win at least one more of these games at on home ice within the next two for myself to call it a success, but I would I would opt like three out of four points in the next two games or seven out of 10 points on the home stand. If we take a look at this home stand so far, they lost that first one in Minnesota 1 to nothing. I thought they had a good effort against the Minnesota Wild though. Follow that up big blowout against Seattle. Follow that up big blowout against the Winnipeg Jets. Now, the Buffalo Sabres, they will be on the second half of a back-to back tomorrow night. They are playing the Calgary Flames tonight and then tomorrow, the Oilers face Buffalo. The Oilers have to find a way to beat the Sabres. No offense, Sabres fans, no disrespect, but this is a team that Edmonton should uh be able to beat and should beat tomorrow night. There is absolutely no excuses. Yes, Buffalo absolutely dominated Edmonton back in November, defeating the Oilers by a score of 5 to1. That would be completely unacceptable, especially on home ice. the Oilers should be able to beat the Sabres. And then Detroit, that’s going to be the tough one. That’s going to be the game where I’m not sure if the Oilers are going to get the job done. Detroit has been playing well this season. Their advanced metrics have been pretty okay. And uh that’s going to be a tough team. Lots of speed in that lineup, lots of talent. And um you know, Tom Mlen, former Oilers coach, he has that team playing good hockey right now. The the Detroit Red Wings, they’re able to win some games. And then the Oilers go on an Eastern Conference road trip. They play Toronto on Saturday. That’s going to be a great game, hockey night in Canada. I’m very much looking forward to that. I’ll be doing a live stream for that game, by the way. Keep an eye out for that. And then on Sunday, back to back, they’re in Montreal, 5:00 p.m. Mountain. I’ll also try and get a live stream for that game on Sunday as well. Can’t guarantee that I’ll get one on the Sunday, but for sure I am going to be doing a live stream during the Leafs game because that is a I mean, I always look forward to the Oilers and Leafs. Then you have Pittsburgh and Boston. Two tough games. Pittsburgh’s been playing great. Lots of smoke regarding Tristan Jarry to Edmonton lately. I don’t really think any of those rumors are true though, unless it’s coming from Elliot Freiedman or the Oilers official Twitter account. I would not put too much stock into Oilers trades right now. Boston, I think they’re playing way above their weight class right now. They are winning hockey games, but their underlying metrics are putrid. They are due to regress. Minnesota, we’re starting to see a little bit of regression here. They went and lost in Vancouver the other night. Uh probably not Walstead’s best night, but the offense for Minnesota has been struggling. And then the Oilers will follow that up with a couple games in the division. You have Vegas, you have Calgary, then you have Calgary again near the end of the month, Winnipeg and Boston. Once again, I would say in the Oilers next 12 games, they have 12 games left in the month of December, I would say seven wins minimum would be acceptable. Eight wins is optimal and anything more than eight wins in their next 12 games, I would call that a success. And that’s where I would say yes, the Oilers are back. But if I’m going to answer the question posed at the start of the video, are they currently back? Is the team back right now? Is this a reason for optimism? Are they going to go on a huge run to the playoffs like we’ve seen over the past two seasons? To me, it’s still early to tell. Um I don’t think the numbers are showing enough for me to uh be very, you know, incredibly confident in the group. I do think that they are starting to turn the corner. You can see those numbers starting to trend upward, which is a good sign. and uh as long as they keep playing like they have over the past couple weeks here. Basically started on that road trip against Washington and since that game against Washington to now, uh Edmonton’s effort has been there in every single game except that uh horrible loss to Dallas where they lost 8-3. That’s kind of been the outlier here. In general though, the team has been playing better hockey, more inspired hockey, more emotional hockey, and most importantly, more exciting hockey. This team throughout the regular season has been very boring to watch. So, I am very happy that they are at least more exciting to watch as of right now. And that’s uh that you know, as a fan, that’s all I asked for, right? It sucks when the team is losing and they’re boring to watch, but now that the the excitement level is ramped up, the goal scoring is ramped up and we’re starting to see certain pieces fall into place. Matthew Seavoy really solidifying that top six spot. You had a guy like Clattenberg get called up, provided a lot of energy, had a goal against Dallas in that blowout. He’s currently out with an injury now. Hopefully, Clattenberg is a-okay. And then speaking of reasons to be optimistic and excited, the AHL team right now is absolutely on fire. There’s one player in particular who I have been very excited about in Bakersfield right now, and that is Quinn Hudson. Don’t be surprised to see Quinn Hudson called up at some point over the next few weeks here, maybe even into the new year. Undrafted. He’s 23. He has 13 goals in 21 games in Bakersfield, but he has been on an absolute tear over his last, I don’t know, 10, 11 games. It’s been unbelievable what Quinn Hudson’s been doing down there. Uh Mariala, he’s also been doing great, 19 points in 21 games. You have uh Josh Samansky, 16 points in 21 games. You have Lepin, 15 points in 21 games as a defenseman. A lot of uh a lot of fans who are a lot smarter than me were really high on Lepin during preseason. We’ll see if Lepin is able to kind of carve a spot on the Oilers defensive core at some point in the next year or so. I think because we’re starting to see Brett Koulak’s game drop off. Lepin is a left shot Dman. Maybe he could step up at some point. And then another player that I’m also looking forward to seeing maybe get to play some games with Edmonton this season is Roby Yarventi. He has just been riddled with injuries over the past couple seasons. He was pretty highly touted at one point earlier in his career. He has 14 points in 17 games, nine goals with the Bakersfield Condors. So, just a quick little look at what Bakersfield is doing right now. Reasons for optimism. My apologies, my voice. Reasons for optimism. Colin Chuck has that team playing very well down in Bakersfield. Much more exciting hockey. And it’s nice that the Oilers NHL team and that the Oilers affiliate team at the same time, they’re both trending upwards, which is great to see. Lots of confidence here and lots of excitement in oil country. So, thank you all so much for watching. Truly appreciate your support. Make sure to hit that like button, subscribe if you’re not yet subscribed, and tomorrow morning, I’ll have a pregame report up before the game against the Buffalo Sabres. Cannot wait for that. We’ll see you soon. Tell them that you love them. And as always, fight like a kid, fight like Ben. Let’s go Oilers. We’ll see you soon, Oil Country. Take care.

The Oilers are coming off two huge blowouts, which begs the question: Are the Edmonton Oilers back? I take a deep dive into the analytics to see if this is just a flash in the pan, or if there is some sustainability to the teams’ play as of late. #oilers #edmontonoilers #nhl

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