At 36% of the season the standings are still very tight. Currently league-wide the Flyers are 7th in points%, 7th in goal differential and have the 5th best record over the last 10 games. Things could still go any which way. Where do you see this team at the TDL?
December 10, 2025
Let’s go Flyers
23 comments
One thing to consider is the Flyers have relatively had really good luck on the injury front.
Risto is almost ready to come back, but Andrae has done a pretty good job in his stead.
Losing Foerster might hurt a bit.
The standings are still a royal flustercluck.
We have been blessed with 2 months of competitive hockey.
To keep this going we will need 11 Hail Marys and 46 Our Fathers from each everyone one of you.
Normally I’d say this would mean we’re very likely to make the playoffs, but even based on points % we’re in the wild card because 3 of the teams ahead of us in points % are in our division (tied with Penguins, but they have the tie-breaker).
Even with all that, right now I feel unexpectedly optimistic about making the playoffs. A cold streak can certainly change that, however. That said, I hope the team will still consider selling at the TDL. Even with the unexpectedly good year, there are still positions we need to fill for the future (1C, maybe 2C, 1D, 1G). We may be able to fill some of those holes via trades (Hughes is the only somewhat realistic target right now), and there is at least the potential for a 2C and 1G in our pipeline, but either way trading off short-term assets that can return valuable long-term pieces should be a priority still. Further, trading someone like Dvorak for something similar to Laughton’s return can help us land a 1D or 1C in trade if they become available.
At a minimum, we certainly should not be buying at the TDL outside of minor depth pieces at the absolute most, imo.
I will not believe this team is a 6-8 seed until we get through our annual west coast trip in December with a semi decent record
If they do what they usually do on said trip, and the morale drops/ losses continue, definitely sellers at the deadline
If they manage to tread water through this trip and come out of it at least .500? They should be in decent shape
I’m not really sure where I see the team at the TDL, but I do hope they sell expiring contracts for additional draft picks or talent. I don’t see Dvorak being so integral to this team that they couldn’t benefit from getting something of long term value for the short term contract he has signed.
Initially I went from thinking the team was just bad, but, I’m willing to eat crow and admit that they’re not bad I just don’t enjoy watching this style of hockey. I recognize that now. I still don’t think this team is a Finals contender and for that reason I think it’s more beneficial to still sell expirings at TDL.
Just a thought: Imagine if games were worth 3 points, with 2 points for ot win, 1 for ot loss. We’d be lower in the standings.
Danny B has a tough decision to make whether to sell or buy. I doubt he’d want to aquire a talented rental, would be a trade and sign I feel like. I have to imagine we’re still selling, but to what extent is the question.
Unless they’re ready to go on a serious run (they’re not) then they should be sellers. Holding onto a guy like Dvorak just so they can *maybe* make it in as a wild card is pointless when he could easily get them a first round pick if not more.
Schedule is about to get difficult. If they weather it till the break I’m all in. If they falter, that’s ok.
Let’s F’n Go!
Should still be sellers at the deadline.
They’ve played 17 home games and 11 on the road.
Vladar has the 6th best GAA of any goalie with 15 or more starts.
They’ve also gone to overtime 10 freaking times and won 7 of them.
Many of the above trends are likely to revert to the mean.
Inside of me there are two wolves:
The pragmatic wolf has seen this story before. He knows that this team is lacking in key areas, and aren’t good enough to seriously compete with the elite of the elite.
The other, more impulsive wolf, would go on a bloody rampage if it meant playoff hockey returned to Philadelphia.
Barring a rash of injuries, I’d probably say the only major piece we move is Dvorak. While valuable, we still should cash in on his value at the TDL, and we’ll still be in a competitive spot without him.
I’d love for them to be sellers, but aside from Tippett, who really has any value for picks/prospects we need?
Maybe if Dvorak continues to tear it up?
You heard TK recently and Michkov in the offseason, the players want playoffs and they finally have a team that could do it. I doubt Danny goes against that. If anything, I hope the guys show they’re legit and continue to improve like they’ve been doing, Michkov pops off, Risto comes back in form, and behind the scenes Danny is courting Quinn Hughes. Make trades in the offseason. We got Olympic hockey too and a lot of guys in world juniors so I’m just gonna ride the wave and enjoy hockey again.
I’m confident they will make the playoffs based on one comment. Between periods one recent game that they were losing, Seeler stood up in the locker room and said something like, “If we want to make the playoffs, we have to win games like this one. Let’s fucking go!” And they came back and won that game. Unlike many recent Flyers teams, this team believes they can and will make the playoffs, and I think they will continue to do what it takes to rack up the points to get there.
Stay the course, stick to the plan. When the trade deadline comes up we should still be selling if its a piece that doesnt fit the plan. You could make cases to both keep and trade dvorak, but we’ll need assetts. Its wonderful the team is competetive. Its awesome to watch decent flyers hockey again. But we’re still missing key pieces. Key peices that are instrumental to a deep playoff run and are also very very difficult to acquire.
If we happen to gain a #1 D or #1 C we will again have holes because the sale price will be high. They wont be as deep, but lets not pretend that possibly losing foerester or york/drysdale or a top prospect wont need to be addressed following an aqcuisition.
If you want a top-level data-driven opinion, the Flyers are over-performing their skill level and poised for a tumble back down the standings based on their current play…. BUT there’s still reason to hope that they may justify their current success with future improvement as they develop under Tocchet.
*Note: all of the following stats are 5-on-5, because a) it’s the best predictor of future performance and b) the Flyers are solidly and unremarkably average (or perhaps remarkably so, if you consider the previous years?) on both the PK and PP on a per/60 basis.*
The Flyers are a bottom-third team in Expected Goals Percentage (21st out of 32), which is the best, single-stat open-source predictor of future performance. They are also 20th out of 32 in Shot Attempt %, which is a measure of their useful possession compared to their opponents, and is also a strong predictor. The fact that these two stats are so well-correlated indicates that they’re probably an accurate, top-level picture. So that doesn’t look great, but I’ll break it down a little further:
The two things they’ve got going for them are:
1. they’re a relatively strong team defensively. They are 5th overall in limiting shot attempts against, 9th overall in limiting expected goals against, and that has helped them stay at a respectable 12th overall in actual goals against per 60 minutes, despite having a decidedly lackluster team save percentage at 5-on-5 (22nd out of 32).
2. Despite not creating a lot of quality chances (25th and 20th in chances/60 and high-danger chances/60 respectively), they are quite good at capitalizing on the chances they do create- their 5-on-5 shooting percentage is 10.27% which is the 8th best in the NHL, and a full 2 percentage points higher than it was under Torts.
So in the analysis, they are generally good at keeping their games relatively low-event, which gives them a better chance to beat the odds and defeat stronger opponents by playing hard and capitalizing on the chances they create. Their high shooting percentage isn’t down to just one or two guys having unsustainable results- they have 9 players at 10% or above and their 5-on-5 scoring is evenly spread between 5 or 6 different players. This indicates that Tocchet’s systems play (which focuses heavily on possession and getting puck to the middle of the ice rather than on shot volume) is probably boosting their scoring ability significantly over their tenure with Tortorella.
However, they have a number of players shooting at what is probably an unsustainable level compared to their career highs, most notably Sean Couturier at 16.7% and Tyson Foerster at a whopping 25%! And this is reflected in their top-5 PDO of 1.005. This indicates that if nothing about their play style changes going forward, they’re probably due for some regression to the mean, which, in this incarnation of the Eastern Conference, would mean going from a top-10 team to a bottom-10 team in short order.
The light at the end of the tunnel, which fuels my emotional, fan-optimism that they’re Actually Good^(TM)
is the fact that Tocchet’s systems are among the more complex among NHL coaches, and the team has shown steady improvement as the season has progressed, both visually *and* statistically as they’ve learned how to implement his vision for their play. At this point, it’s a question of where their actual intellectual ceiling is- they may stop improving this month and fall into the bottom-10, or they may continue to take leaps forward all the way up to March, and end up as a respectable playoff team, if not a legit contender.
As a short answer to the question: relatively competitive enough that they wont sell and won’t buy rentals. I think Danny has been and will remain aggressive to find longer term additions, but I doubt he sells Dvorak and I doubt he’s giving up anything above a 3rd or 4th for a rental.
How I think the state of the team will fair by then is a different question. Vladar has been an interesting development, and at a minimum I don’t consider him to be “artifical inflation” of the team’s performance the way a lot of people do. Zegras/York/Drysdale look to be a legitimately solid upper half of the lineup trio and a group we can start to build around a bit more. TK and Sanheim still have some gas in the tank and are guys I still think will be net-positive pieces (especially with the leadership elements they provide) for the next handful of years.
The two biggest issues I currently see are the Michkov dilemma and what to do at Center. We are at the point where I am legitimately concerned with the relationship our head coach on a large deal has with the most important player in the organization, which is something that’s held a dark cloud over the entirety of this season’s success IMO. I also think Couturier is hanging on by a thread to be a top-9 C and Dvorak is going on a career-bender this season, neither are probably going to be sustainable over the course of multiple years and with the coach refusing to play Zegras down the middle, I have a ton of questions as to how that plays out.
The final thing I’ll say about this team right now: I’m sure many are already exhausted by the Quinn Hughes dialog, but I can’t stress enough how huge of a situation that has the potential to be for us. Without going into full-blown galaxy brain mode, I truly believe we’re probably the frontrunners to acquire him this season *should Vancouver move on from him before the TDL*, and adding him would completely change the DNA of this roster. If that happens, it’ll be the first time in about half a decade that I’d truly, honestly believe in this team’s plan to return to contention
Rumor is that they rebuffed the Canucks when they were trying to get Tippet for Sherwood. I think they’re buyers at the TDL, but maybe seeing what they could get for draft picks and long term prospects verse shaking up the roster.
Which to me, means Quinn Hughes is not happening.
Buy buy buy if we’re doing this we should make a run
Beginning of season I thought for sure we’d be retaining and selling at the deadline. If we’re on the fringe with low term guys I would still like to see gaining a few more pieces and attempt another higher draft pick. Need to find a way to get a 1C/1D and then we start cooking
Stanley Cup or Bust. If the Flyers Win it all this year I’ll get a tattoo of Danny Briere sitting naked on top of the cup. Id give no fucks
23 comments
One thing to consider is the Flyers have relatively had really good luck on the injury front.
Risto is almost ready to come back, but Andrae has done a pretty good job in his stead.
Losing Foerster might hurt a bit.
The standings are still a royal flustercluck.
We have been blessed with 2 months of competitive hockey.
To keep this going we will need 11 Hail Marys and 46 Our Fathers from each everyone one of you.
Normally I’d say this would mean we’re very likely to make the playoffs, but even based on points % we’re in the wild card because 3 of the teams ahead of us in points % are in our division (tied with Penguins, but they have the tie-breaker).
Even with all that, right now I feel unexpectedly optimistic about making the playoffs. A cold streak can certainly change that, however. That said, I hope the team will still consider selling at the TDL. Even with the unexpectedly good year, there are still positions we need to fill for the future (1C, maybe 2C, 1D, 1G). We may be able to fill some of those holes via trades (Hughes is the only somewhat realistic target right now), and there is at least the potential for a 2C and 1G in our pipeline, but either way trading off short-term assets that can return valuable long-term pieces should be a priority still. Further, trading someone like Dvorak for something similar to Laughton’s return can help us land a 1D or 1C in trade if they become available.
At a minimum, we certainly should not be buying at the TDL outside of minor depth pieces at the absolute most, imo.
I will not believe this team is a 6-8 seed until we get through our annual west coast trip in December with a semi decent record
If they do what they usually do on said trip, and the morale drops/ losses continue, definitely sellers at the deadline
If they manage to tread water through this trip and come out of it at least .500? They should be in decent shape
I’m not really sure where I see the team at the TDL, but I do hope they sell expiring contracts for additional draft picks or talent. I don’t see Dvorak being so integral to this team that they couldn’t benefit from getting something of long term value for the short term contract he has signed.
Initially I went from thinking the team was just bad, but, I’m willing to eat crow and admit that they’re not bad I just don’t enjoy watching this style of hockey. I recognize that now. I still don’t think this team is a Finals contender and for that reason I think it’s more beneficial to still sell expirings at TDL.
Just a thought: Imagine if games were worth 3 points, with 2 points for ot win, 1 for ot loss. We’d be lower in the standings.
Danny B has a tough decision to make whether to sell or buy. I doubt he’d want to aquire a talented rental, would be a trade and sign I feel like. I have to imagine we’re still selling, but to what extent is the question.
Unless they’re ready to go on a serious run (they’re not) then they should be sellers. Holding onto a guy like Dvorak just so they can *maybe* make it in as a wild card is pointless when he could easily get them a first round pick if not more.
Schedule is about to get difficult. If they weather it till the break I’m all in. If they falter, that’s ok.
Let’s F’n Go!
Should still be sellers at the deadline.
They’ve played 17 home games and 11 on the road.
Vladar has the 6th best GAA of any goalie with 15 or more starts.
They’ve also gone to overtime 10 freaking times and won 7 of them.
Many of the above trends are likely to revert to the mean.
Inside of me there are two wolves:
The pragmatic wolf has seen this story before. He knows that this team is lacking in key areas, and aren’t good enough to seriously compete with the elite of the elite.
The other, more impulsive wolf, would go on a bloody rampage if it meant playoff hockey returned to Philadelphia.
Barring a rash of injuries, I’d probably say the only major piece we move is Dvorak. While valuable, we still should cash in on his value at the TDL, and we’ll still be in a competitive spot without him.
Fuck it
https://preview.redd.it/eil5ltetxe6g1.jpeg?width=894&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7850e5a18a4df46296f8aa0bd480d8b897b577e6
I’d love for them to be sellers, but aside from Tippett, who really has any value for picks/prospects we need?
Maybe if Dvorak continues to tear it up?
You heard TK recently and Michkov in the offseason, the players want playoffs and they finally have a team that could do it. I doubt Danny goes against that. If anything, I hope the guys show they’re legit and continue to improve like they’ve been doing, Michkov pops off, Risto comes back in form, and behind the scenes Danny is courting Quinn Hughes. Make trades in the offseason. We got Olympic hockey too and a lot of guys in world juniors so I’m just gonna ride the wave and enjoy hockey again.
I’m confident they will make the playoffs based on one comment. Between periods one recent game that they were losing, Seeler stood up in the locker room and said something like, “If we want to make the playoffs, we have to win games like this one. Let’s fucking go!” And they came back and won that game. Unlike many recent Flyers teams, this team believes they can and will make the playoffs, and I think they will continue to do what it takes to rack up the points to get there.
Stay the course, stick to the plan. When the trade deadline comes up we should still be selling if its a piece that doesnt fit the plan. You could make cases to both keep and trade dvorak, but we’ll need assetts. Its wonderful the team is competetive. Its awesome to watch decent flyers hockey again. But we’re still missing key pieces. Key peices that are instrumental to a deep playoff run and are also very very difficult to acquire.
If we happen to gain a #1 D or #1 C we will again have holes because the sale price will be high. They wont be as deep, but lets not pretend that possibly losing foerester or york/drysdale or a top prospect wont need to be addressed following an aqcuisition.
If you want a top-level data-driven opinion, the Flyers are over-performing their skill level and poised for a tumble back down the standings based on their current play…. BUT there’s still reason to hope that they may justify their current success with future improvement as they develop under Tocchet.
*Note: all of the following stats are 5-on-5, because a) it’s the best predictor of future performance and b) the Flyers are solidly and unremarkably average (or perhaps remarkably so, if you consider the previous years?) on both the PK and PP on a per/60 basis.*
The Flyers are a bottom-third team in Expected Goals Percentage (21st out of 32), which is the best, single-stat open-source predictor of future performance. They are also 20th out of 32 in Shot Attempt %, which is a measure of their useful possession compared to their opponents, and is also a strong predictor. The fact that these two stats are so well-correlated indicates that they’re probably an accurate, top-level picture. So that doesn’t look great, but I’ll break it down a little further:
The two things they’ve got going for them are:
1. they’re a relatively strong team defensively. They are 5th overall in limiting shot attempts against, 9th overall in limiting expected goals against, and that has helped them stay at a respectable 12th overall in actual goals against per 60 minutes, despite having a decidedly lackluster team save percentage at 5-on-5 (22nd out of 32).
2. Despite not creating a lot of quality chances (25th and 20th in chances/60 and high-danger chances/60 respectively), they are quite good at capitalizing on the chances they do create- their 5-on-5 shooting percentage is 10.27% which is the 8th best in the NHL, and a full 2 percentage points higher than it was under Torts.
So in the analysis, they are generally good at keeping their games relatively low-event, which gives them a better chance to beat the odds and defeat stronger opponents by playing hard and capitalizing on the chances they create. Their high shooting percentage isn’t down to just one or two guys having unsustainable results- they have 9 players at 10% or above and their 5-on-5 scoring is evenly spread between 5 or 6 different players. This indicates that Tocchet’s systems play (which focuses heavily on possession and getting puck to the middle of the ice rather than on shot volume) is probably boosting their scoring ability significantly over their tenure with Tortorella.
However, they have a number of players shooting at what is probably an unsustainable level compared to their career highs, most notably Sean Couturier at 16.7% and Tyson Foerster at a whopping 25%! And this is reflected in their top-5 PDO of 1.005. This indicates that if nothing about their play style changes going forward, they’re probably due for some regression to the mean, which, in this incarnation of the Eastern Conference, would mean going from a top-10 team to a bottom-10 team in short order.
The light at the end of the tunnel, which fuels my emotional, fan-optimism that they’re Actually Good^(TM)
is the fact that Tocchet’s systems are among the more complex among NHL coaches, and the team has shown steady improvement as the season has progressed, both visually *and* statistically as they’ve learned how to implement his vision for their play. At this point, it’s a question of where their actual intellectual ceiling is- they may stop improving this month and fall into the bottom-10, or they may continue to take leaps forward all the way up to March, and end up as a respectable playoff team, if not a legit contender.
As a short answer to the question: relatively competitive enough that they wont sell and won’t buy rentals. I think Danny has been and will remain aggressive to find longer term additions, but I doubt he sells Dvorak and I doubt he’s giving up anything above a 3rd or 4th for a rental.
How I think the state of the team will fair by then is a different question. Vladar has been an interesting development, and at a minimum I don’t consider him to be “artifical inflation” of the team’s performance the way a lot of people do. Zegras/York/Drysdale look to be a legitimately solid upper half of the lineup trio and a group we can start to build around a bit more. TK and Sanheim still have some gas in the tank and are guys I still think will be net-positive pieces (especially with the leadership elements they provide) for the next handful of years.
The two biggest issues I currently see are the Michkov dilemma and what to do at Center. We are at the point where I am legitimately concerned with the relationship our head coach on a large deal has with the most important player in the organization, which is something that’s held a dark cloud over the entirety of this season’s success IMO. I also think Couturier is hanging on by a thread to be a top-9 C and Dvorak is going on a career-bender this season, neither are probably going to be sustainable over the course of multiple years and with the coach refusing to play Zegras down the middle, I have a ton of questions as to how that plays out.
The final thing I’ll say about this team right now: I’m sure many are already exhausted by the Quinn Hughes dialog, but I can’t stress enough how huge of a situation that has the potential to be for us. Without going into full-blown galaxy brain mode, I truly believe we’re probably the frontrunners to acquire him this season *should Vancouver move on from him before the TDL*, and adding him would completely change the DNA of this roster. If that happens, it’ll be the first time in about half a decade that I’d truly, honestly believe in this team’s plan to return to contention
Rumor is that they rebuffed the Canucks when they were trying to get Tippet for Sherwood. I think they’re buyers at the TDL, but maybe seeing what they could get for draft picks and long term prospects verse shaking up the roster.
Which to me, means Quinn Hughes is not happening.
Buy buy buy if we’re doing this we should make a run
Beginning of season I thought for sure we’d be retaining and selling at the deadline. If we’re on the fringe with low term guys I would still like to see gaining a few more pieces and attempt another higher draft pick. Need to find a way to get a 1C/1D and then we start cooking
Stanley Cup or Bust. If the Flyers Win it all this year I’ll get a tattoo of Danny Briere sitting naked on top of the cup. Id give no fucks