MASSIVE Keyonte George SHIFTS Utah Jazz Trajectory – Lauri Markkanen’s Role in the Rebuild

Keonte George’s jump this year is mammoth and it couldn’t be more important to the future of the Utah Jazz. It flat out changes everything. Next on Locked on Jazz. You are Locked on Jazz, your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. How are you? I’m David Lockach and thank you for making Locked on Jazz the number one. Oh, excuse me. Locked on Podcast Network, the number one sports podcast network. How are you? I’m David Lock, radio voice to Utah Jazz, Jazz NBA insider. This is Locked on Jazz. It’s your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz, giving you insight, expertise, geeky numbers, and hopefully making it way better to be a Jazz fan each and every day. Thank you so much for making Locked on Jazz your first listen. Thank you for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. And thank you for jumping on. We are free and available on all podcasting apps as well as on YouTube. Today’s show is brought to you by Game Time, the Game Time app. Get the Game Time app, get access to all of the games you need to go to, and by using Locked On NBA, get $20 off your first purchase. Everydayers out there, you’re the greatest. Hope you uh to the members of the everyday club. I believe you got a special leaf to lean about AJ Devans’s incredible performance against Clemson. Hope you got that. Special welcome to Derek Peterson who’s now a member of the Lockdown Everyday Club as well. Special thank you and welcome to Hank Nelson and to David Anderson, parts of the Lockdown Everyday Club. All access members, great to have you aboard. Uh and you can do that at lockdownpodcast.com everyday. All right, let’s today’s show we’ll finish with points gained as we always do on a Thursday. We will discuss a hidden success of the Jazz season that no one is talking about. We are starting with the dynamic of how Keonte George’s success this year changes absolutely everything. Let’s remember where Keonte comes into the season from. Kee at is basic a 39% shooter from the field. He is a 31% shooter from three. He statistically, as we talked about all summer, is kind of on the edge. He’s not into the like call it the the black or red where you’re like, “Oh god, there’s no chance.” He’s kind of on the edge the whole time. When you run statistical models, his effective field goal percentage, which is a more modern number, was kind of near 50, was about 48%. Um, and if you kind of looked at the history of guys whose effective field goal percentage was below 50%. You could find a few guys that busted through and made it. He’s got his effective field goal percentage up to 50% this year. Really, what he’s doing is making his twos right now. He went from making 44% of his twos to making 51% of his twos. He went from his three-point shooting is actually right on his career average, which is still not good enough. It’s at 33%. It needs to be at 35 or 36. So, you have to believe a little bit that he’s still going to get there. Um, and he’s gone from taking four free throws to taking seven free throws a game. He’s gone from averaging 17 points to 22 points a game. It’s there. It’s a little more fragile than we’re talking about to be totally honest. Um, you know, if the two-point shooting suddenly regresses at all to the 46 or 45% that he was a year ago, the two years, then the three-point shooting has not vaulted him up enough to make him efficient. So that is the biggest change, but he’s also finishing at the rim so much better. He’s changing the way he’s approaching it. And some of those misses are now becoming free throws. That’s what going to the, you know, he’s getting fouled probably on two more shots a game than he was a year ago. And so instead of having those be misses, they’re now free throws. That makes a really big difference. His rim finishing is was 59 his rookie year, 61 his second year, and is now at 69%. He’s also going to the rim much more than he did. His little short mid-range game has jumped from 42% to 48. And his long mid-range game has jumped from 34 to 41%. Those are massive jumps. It’s great. It some of them feel a little high. Um the one that’s interesting is his above the break three is sitting at 32% which is exactly the number it’s been his entire career. Um so that to me will be interesting. He does need to become a better three-point shooter than 33% for this to all come together. But as of right now, it really feels as though Keont has taken this mass shiftive jump. And that when we talk about what we talked about with Cody and Taylor, that the Jazz entered this season and they had seven guys and they had to figure out which two or three of the seven guys, not necessarily find out this year, but in this process of the build, we’ve taken big swings. Justin Xanic talks about it all the time. We’ve got a lot of swings and the swings allow you to have to hit at 40 or 50%. And that’s the what we talked about yesterday is once a draft is dead as I call it or done then you’re at about 50% or a little bit below in hitting and the Jazz have generally drafted after drafts are dead other than Ace Bailey. So Ace Bailey doesn’t count in this group. Ace Bailey has to hit. You can’t you cannot have a rebuild have a pick inside the hot part of a draft and miss. You just that’s not an option that makes a rebuild win work. So when you look at Keonte and Bryce and Taylor in that draft, you’re hoping that one or two one probably two hits probably one when it’s a nine, a 16, and a 28. When you’re looking at Cody and Isaiah and Flip, you’re really hoping one of them hits. And when you’re looking at Walt Clayton, you’re hoping maybe he can hit. And you’re hoping you finish this thing with two or three guys that are rotation NBA players. There’s two things that are happening here with Keonte. One is he seems to be one of the seven. that suddenly alleviates some of the concerns on the fact that a 10th pick like Cody Williams does not seem to be heading in that direction or that Taylor’s injury rehab, as expected, is taking as long as it should. As we talked about on yesterday’s show, that Keonte’s burst alleviates some of that. The second thing that Keant’s burst has done is Keiant’s looking like he’s bursting like a starter, not just a rotation player. That’s a big deal cuz inside of this conversation of that two or three of these guys have to hit, you end up you’re going to need four or five bonafide big-time players, Keonte looks the part right now of a big-time player. That changes the game. That changes how the Jazz approach this moving forward. Now, if Walt Clayton or Isaiah Collier can become 24 minute a night guards, that’s a success because Keonte by having by looking like a 32minute a night guard is giving them the leeway there. So, that’s a big that’s huge in this is that he looks like a starter. Now, when you try to piece this thing together down the future, you’ve got Ace who’s a starter, you’ve got Lowry who’s a starter, you probably have Walker as a starter, you have Keonte. Okay, now we’re looking for kind of we can get specific to what we’re looking for. Is there, you know, a free agent or someone who’s a really a scoring wing guard that can match what we’re doing and then, oh, Clayton can fit in as a third guard. That’s kind of what he seems to me like the perfect Oh, we’re now That’s great. Isaiah can fit as a third. Perfect. You’re not asking them to be 32 minute. So Keiante’s jump alleviates a huge amount of pressure. Back to the Mark Dagmal conversation of yesterday. How do we find them a way to be efficient and impactful in a near narrow role and then see if they burst at the seams? Those narrow roles now also look like something like, oh, okay, that that’s a night that could be a nice player for. Same thing with Taylor. Like when we talked about Robert Cington yesterday, if Ace continues to develop, it alleviates some of the pressure of what we need out of Taylor. That’s the That’s really the biggest thing that Keonte’s done is now other players can play in this role. As long as Keonte is this bonafide starter and it sure feels like it. It’s a massive jump. It’s incredible maturity. He really It’s It’s really cool. Um and by the way, happy birthday to Ke. November 8th was his birthday. um he’s now a grand 22 years old and um so like he’s still a baby is my point on that. So I think that um that’s where that’s most the other one that’s really really big here about this with Kei is I could argue that if Keith flopped this season it would have set our rebuild back as many as two or three years. I’ll explain that next on Locked on Jess. 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It is all at the All Access Club. The All Access Club is $15 a month or $150 a year. And the Everyday Club is $5 a month or $50 a year. If you have Spotify wrapped with Locked on Jazz on it, post it on social media and at Locked on Podcast Network, you get first month for free. That’s if you have Spotify wrapped, post it on social at the national account at Lockdown Podcast and you get the first month to try it out for free on our All Access or our um Everyday Club. So, Everyday or Everyday or All Access, please join. Love to have you board. I’m super pumped about this. If Keonte George had busted, I think the Jazz had to really consider trading Lowry Markup. If we were at this point and Kante George shooting 37% from the field and 30% from three and we’re like uhoh, he can’t make shots. He’s not an NBA player. Then all of a sudden the Jazz look at their cover and they’re like, “Okay, Keontee is probably not going to make it. We’re not sure on Taylor because injury. Bryce is, I think, gonna had a real chance to make it, but to be one of the seven, but he’s probably a rotation 20 minute a night player who can shoot it coming off the bench and really score it. Really good like bench scorer. Not sure on Isaiah’s shooting. Flip seems like maybe, but probably Kelly Olen. So, that’s a 15 to 20 minute a night guy as now. I think Flip could do more. We’ll see. But just let’s say that’s where you you’re analyzing the franchise. If you’re Justin and Austin, Cody, you can’t bank on that right now. you’re not your own wall. And so suddenly you’re looking like, “Oh, we got maybe three guys, but they’re all 20 minute night guys. We don’t have a starter. We don’t have And now you suddenly put Lowry into the marketplace wondering if you can go get as offtalked about a Jaden Ivy. Maybe you’re talking Jonathan Kaminga. I don’t really think so, but maybe. Maybe you’re talking any of these other spots because you now need a piece. You now really need another swing to make sure that you’re going to have a 25 to 30 minute a night player out of those seven guys. But the fact that Keonte looks to be that 25 to 30 minute a night player means you’re not under the same urgency or frankly desperation or concern that you have to go trade Lowry Markin. And if you trade Lowry Markin, it might turn out to be the right move somewhere along the way. I don’t think so. But if it does turn out, you set it back two or three years. The way this thing accelerates quickly is you have Lowry, you have Ace developing. You have Keiante who turns out to be a starter. You have Walker who’s proven to be a starter. You’re fiddling a funneling a few pieces in with cap space. And let’s go. And you draft another kid and let’s go. And Walt develops and one of the Kyle develops and you’ve got three of your seven. I just picked random guys. And you go. You trade Lowry to get two or three other pieces and some draft picks and you’re going to have to get some pieces for 40 million. It’s not an easy trade to make. We’re we’re not we’re not totally there yet. You’re not you’re not going anytime soon until that kid hits whoever you just whoever you just got. Right. If you trade for let’s just use Jade Ivy because he’s off talked about. If you go trade for Jay Knville, Jay Kny better be ready to go. I mean like go like Lowry go like top 30, top 40 player in the NBA. Go. Key’s looking like he’s going to be a top 100 player in the NBA, which I was not entirely sure I expected out of any of these kids. But that presence of key doing that I think alleviates the one scenario where you really are in trouble in development and probably have to go sign go really consider trading Lowry. I don’t think you have to that that to me is not if there’s a trade that’s so good you can’t say no then maybe you have to do it for the development of the franchise. But it’s not as though you look at it right now and say wow even with Lowry we don’t have enough our young pieces coming around. I don’t know. One of them came around. All right, let’s get to the hidden gem of the season, which I think will be hard for a lot of people to grab. I saw Jazz Notes wrote an article on this. I thought it was interesting angle about SPI and how somewhat SVI playing is a sign that other guys haven’t progressed. I think that’s fair. I don’t think anyone expected SP to start this much. SPI is one of the grand successes of this season because the way the league works now, you have two things you have to do. The the salary stuff is very restrictive and you’ve got to find a way to get 240 minutes of basketball. And if Fee has proved anything, he is 20 to 25 minutes of a solid NBA rotation player. He is also on a 2-year non-g guaranteed contract at a re at a club option at an incredibly good number. So is making 3.6 million this year. He is not guaranteed, but he makes 3.8 next year and he makes 4 million the year after that. The Jazz have him signed up for two more years. What the Jazz have created out of a 28-year-old Steve Mkuke this year is that they now have two more years of guaranteed salary at a incredibly reasonable number in this league and he is a rotation player when this all works like when you start to build your nine-man rotation of this taking off. Let’s go optimistically. It’s Keiante, it’s a free agent we sign. It’s Ace Bailey. It’s Lowry Mark. It’s Walker Kesler. It’s one of our younger players, Kyle Filipowski. Let’s go with Kyle. And he’s under three million. He’s at $3 million as well. We sign a a sixth man who’s really good. We one of our Walt Clayton comes around. It’s Fim Kylook and maybe Ysef Nurkage. Like that’s your 10-man rotation to get you 240 minutes. Nerkage is a little different because he’s unrestricted free agent. You got to figure out what you’re signing him. He’s 31 years old. He’s got his deficiencies. Backup center shouldn’t get paid. all sorts of problems there. So maybe that’s not the answer, but you got the concept. But Mail is a part of that 10-man rotation at 22 minutes a night in a way that is a great finding for the Jazz. Yeah. Would it be nice if Bryce Sensible, Cody Williams, or somebody else had developed so fast that SE Muk didn’t have to start? Yep, it would be. But in the meantime, Syuk is a massive success for this season. Trying to find off the NBA scrap heap, if I’m without being rude to SV, but that’s kind of where he was. Trying to find a guy off the NBA scrap heap who you can have under player contract control for now three years, but two more years at a number under 5 million is pretty awesome. I mean, Kyle Anderson is a $9 million player. George Yang’s an $8 million player. To get someone at three in this business is almost impossible. So, that that’s some that’s a great find by the Jazz front office. Actually, if they can find one or two more, that’s worth doing. And they’ve tried, right, Jaden Springer. We’ve tried all these guys, but that’s what you do. You take swings of these guys, and most of them don’t pan out. Jaden Springer’s not in the league anymore. We had like three versions of Jaden Springer last year. I can’t think of who they all are, but late first round draft picks. It don’t pan out. You give him another shot. Steve’s just a guy’s been bouncing around. Somebody had him in Boston, knew he was a good dude. Now he’s turned out to develop and play and he’s shooting 36% from three and he’s defending his ass off and he executes perfectly and he’s cheap and that actually really matters. So that’s a hidden success of this season. That’s a big deal cuz you don’t have to you don’t have to fill out that piece of your puzzle right now. And I by the way didn’t include Bryce Sensible on that rotation of players. Probably very easily could. And again, so this is we’re we’re getting closer, but it goes back to Keys jump makes this all very very possible. All right, points gained. We’ll look at Keont’s jump over the three years in points gained. I’ll explain points gained a little bit to you and then we will roll uh and look at the rest of the league as the Spurs up and the Lakers last night in Oklahoma City just humiliated Phoenix. Oklahoma City’s absurd right now. It is next on Locked on Jazz. Today’s edition of Locked on Jazz is brought to you by Quo like status quo. Quo is uh I’ve said this a lot of times uh when doing talking about Quo. is the company that I super wish we had uh when we started locked on because um well we didn’t and so I just used my own personal phone number all the time. 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Um, for those of you who are not on YouTube, I suddenly looked down at my phone and saw it was still timing at an hour and 33 minutes. The morning yoga was good. It was only 30 minutes, not an hour and 33. Anyway, um, points gained. Points gained is our exclusive offensive metric. By the way, October 20th, Orlando Magic game, Kevin Pelton coming into town. We’re doing a special statcast on Jazz Plus. So, Scotty G will be doing radio and I’ll be doing Statcast. All right. Um, points gain is our official our exclusive offensive metric and it counts two really two things. One is the efficiency by which you use a possession and two and that is based on points per scoring opportunity. two, how often you get a shot off because actually getting a shot off in the league is hard. So, let’s look at Keonte George in the 2324 season in Keonte George’s rookie year. Keonte George’s points gained. So, this means, and I’ll see if I can explain this adequately for you, in Kee George used 12 scoring opportunities a night. And in those 12 scoring opportunities, Keonte George was minus 1.1 points below what average offensive scorers would do with those 12 possessions. Okay, so Keont is a minus 1.1 in his first year in 12 scoring opportunities a night. That’s actually not terrible for a rookie guard, just to let you know. Like it’s not terrible at all. that that actually was a pretty encouraging sign um in some ways because rookie guards are usually really bad and we can look at this year and you’ll see that the rookies show up there all the time. Then the next year, Keante was a minus 1.1 in 15.5 scoring opportunities. So he used three more scoring opportunities a night, went from 12 to 15. He was still minus 1.1, which actually means he’s a little bit more efficient because he’s using more scoring opportunities, but it didn’t show any development. Again, not terrible. And this was where I kind of was on Kee the whole time. Like some of the numbers aren’t good, but it wasn’t horrific. And then this year, Keonte now using 19 scoring opportunities a night is at 0.1 league average. It’s really good. It’s good for a guard. Not like really really good, but it’s good for a guard. And it’s where I’m saying he’s still teetering a little bit. Like if some of these numbers that in 20 some odd games have suddenly become, you know, go away a little bit, like the two-point shooting or some of these other things, then yeah, we you could see Kee’s numbers slide pretty quickly. Um, and really he needs the three-point shooting to get up to 36%. Kind of as I said earlier, some of these are intuitive. Um, because then he would be getting closer to a 1.0. All right. if we’re talking guards in the NBA and what they do in points gained. So, for this season, so Shay Gilus Alexander is at 4.9. He’s absurd. That’s usually there’s 10 guys in the league that are there’s three or four guys over three and there’s about 10 guys over two per night. This is how many points you score more than average players in the NBA would with your scoring opportunity. So, two is a lot. So, the guards in the NBA right now are Shay Gildas Alexander 4.9, Austin Reeves 3.8, Tyler Herro and limited time 2.7, Norman Powell 2.7 might be why the Clippers are struggling. Donovan Mitchell 2.6 Steph Curry 2.5 Anthony Edwards 2.4 AJ Green very underrated 2.2 Luca Donets 2.1 which is really good for him in his career. Jamal Murray 2.1 James Harden 2.0 Sam Merrill 2.0 don’t underestimate the shooter Denny Adva 1.9 Isaiah Joe 1.6 pure three-point shooter Iotaumo 1.6 six. Cam Spencer one Memphis Cam Spencer 1.5. And this is where we would like to get Kee, frankly. This is the air. Lowry’s at a 1.3 just to put in perspective. He’s basically a guard. Um, a powerful one. Zack Lavine’s at 1.2. Trey Murphy’s at 1.1. Looking for This is where the guards fall off. Dear De’Arren Fox is 1.1. That’s where you’d like to see Keith. And if he can get his three-point shooting up to that level, then he he would get there. So that’s the next step for him while nothing else slips off. But we’re seeing that progression. For the Jazz this year, Walker was 3.7, Lowry’s 1.3, Sv Mai Lucas. 4. Isaiah Collier’s point4, which is really good for Isaiah. Key’s.1 Kevin Lo’s even. Kyle Anderson’s even. Kyle Felpowski is a minus.2. Walter Clayton’s a minus.2. That’s really good for a rookie. Bryce Sensah minus.5. That’s interesting, right? So, we want Bryce Sensah to be that shooter in the AJ Green, Sam Merrill type. He’s only shooting 34% from three though this year. He’s got to up that number. Taylor Hendricks minus.6. Ace Bailey minus.7. Just never goes to the free throw line on Ace Bailey. Um, Ace Bailey, where’s my percentage of possessions? Ace Bailey scoring the free throw line at 3.9% of his possessions which is a stunningly low number. Um uh Sim Kyuk is lower but like that’s why Ace is not efficient. Cody Williams is one point minus 1.5 and Ysef Nerkitch is minus 1.6. Um one thing on Keonte percentage of possessions going to the free throw line is rookie year was nine which was a pretty big number. Again, it was why you kind of always felt like there was a chance this was coming around. Then his second year was a 10.5. I talked about this a lot in the summer that that had increased. And this year, Keonte is going to the free throw line 13.4% of his possessions. That’s huge development. That’s how he’s becoming more efficient. That’s how he’s doing it. So, pretty cool to see. All right, that is Locked on Jazz today. Thanks very much for tuning in. Tomorrow is an Ask LJ edition. Every dayers in the all access club get first questions in. So I’ll send you a note out and then you guys send me your question. Those on Discord, you can send them to me on Discord or you can send them to me um through our text line. Just text me and let me know. Uh if you’ve not joined the Everyday Club, it’s at lockedonpodcast.com everydayer. Again, all access gets one-on-one communication with me, in-game notes, scouting report notes on Memphis, all sorts of other stuff. When I get my prep done, you’ll get and you guys are going to have to share with me. You get the all access exclusive episodes. you get the all access um leaf to lean breakdowns of college basketball and of the draft coming up for you. That’s all in our all access program. So make sure you check that out um at lockdownpodcast.com everyday and adfree lockdown sports today and discord coming to you for $5 a month. The other is 15. Thank you very much for tuning in. I am David Lock. Tomorrow we do the Ask LoJ edition on a Friday from beautiful Memphis, Tennessee. Right now, we send you the first ever national 247 channel, Locked on NBA. And if you’re on audio, check out Locked at NBA Game Night.

Utah Jazz’s future pivots on Keyonte George’s breakthrough season, with his dramatic rise in efficiency and scoring redefining roster expectations. Can George’s leap as a 22-year-old guard speed up Utah’s rebuild and lock in a path to playoff contention?

David Locke spotlights how George’s improved shot selection, increased free throw rate, and starter-level impact relieve pressure on fellow prospects and reshape the team’s strategy around Lauri Markkanen, Ace Bailey, and Walker Kessler. The conversation covers the potential fallout if George hadn’t progressed—including tough decisions about Markkanen’s trade value—and highlights Svi Mykhailiuk’s emergence as a rotation asset on a bargain contract. Key topics include player development trends, statistical milestones, and how Utah’s talent swings could define their cap management and sustainable success. Will the Jazz’s young core meet expectations, or is another shake-up looming?

0:00 — Keyonte George’s Mammoth Jump
2:10 — Statistical Breakdown: Keyonte’s Improvement
7:10 — Impact on Jazz Rebuild & Lauri Markkanen Trade Implications
17:19 — Hidden Gem: Svi Mykhailiuk’s Role/Value
24:29 — Points Gained Analytics & League Comparison

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7 comments
  1. Hard to believe the jazz will try to win next year….kinda ‘pie in the sky when you die’ prediction…sigh …Laurie for Young and this season’s pelican pick is what I like.

  2. Svi's game shouldn't exactly drop off rapidly. There is no reason he won't be able to contribute off the bench once we're done building a winning roster. People are just mad because they think playing young players a million minutes indiscriminately is all it takes to magically develop them. It works in 2k!

  3. Looking back in 5 years, I would rather have gotten a top 4 pick this year and not have Lauri than Lauri and nothing from the draft. so, does Lauri staying here the whole season win us enough game to seriously risk it? If so, trade and move it back a few years. Ideally is we keep Lauri and a high end pick, but that feels like a big risk right now.

  4. Key 🔑 is showing promise and is worthy to be in the nba. Not convinced he will always be with the Jazz.
    All teams have to make moves from time to time. The Jazz reset the team a few years ago because it was built in a flawed way. Too expensive and didn’t have any picks to grow and develop. No way Jazz could be viable long term. With that said, the nba new cba and parity in basketball 🏀 gives all fans false hope. That’s good entertainment 😢

    I can see the Jazz getting lucky 🍀
    For now the Jazz can mess with other teams as they over spend and chase titles. Hehehe 😝
    Winning long term like the Thunder reset take patience and luck and lots of persistence.
    The lottery is fools gold 😮

    Best to be lucky and hopefully 🤞 jazz can get a nice deal unexpectedly. Time to go big game hunting. Yes 🙌

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