Winnipeg Jets: Is This Season Slipping Away? with Murat Ates

Winnipeg Jets: Is This Season Slipping Away? with Murat Ates

[Music] the plight of the Jets right now as they sit where they do. Our good friend Marata Tesh joins us now. Marat, great to have you on the program. Although uh yikes, there are some tough conversations being had in these spaces and anywhere Winnipeg Jets fans are right now after another loss last night. Uh, I mean, we thought that, okay, they’re not going to be what they were last year right off the bat. Maybe it’ll make them better for the playoffs, but I mean, who could have possibly seen after the first month of the season that the team had in October, plunging to the depths that they are right now, not only in the standings, but also in the way they look most nights. Yeah, I it’s been such a myriad of problems, too, that has plagued them. Um, you know, Danielle Bane of TSN asked Scott Arneal today, you know, you got Connor Halabot coming back. Are the problems you’re seeing right now, were they there when he was in the net and you guys were winning? Um, or is this a brand new sort of scenario of things? And Arnel Hammed and Hod, he gave an answer, but I think that the answer is that some of the problems are new, some of them are old, some of them have changed. And the fact is that there’s just so many. The Jets, they looked pretty good against Dallas until breakdowns. They even looked pretty good first stretches against Boston until they looked absolutely awful. And um like I don’t know if there’s a sense the Cavalry is coming, Hell Buck’s coming back soon or or what the breakdowns are something fierce right now. And uh even below the standard of what you’d expect from a struggling Jets team. Yeah, I uh I mean I echo what what you just said because you know over the last couple games I mean if you were just popping in for five minutes to see what was going on there was a chance you would have seen a team that looked okay for a while. Um but the combination of how far that they have fallen off of their previous standard defensively. I mean it’s one thing talking about oh guys aren’t scoring. Defense is a whole different story. um fallen off the way that they have combined and you know and sometimes when you do that you take more penalties you take bad penalties you take penalties where you don’t want to be taking them like in the offensive zone and then combine that right now with what’s happening in the loss of Hellabuk and the struggles of the PK um and this feels like a snowball rolling down a hill that is getting bigger and bigger by the game. Yeah, they need to have something they can hang their hat on. And for the Winnipeg Jets, it used to be team defense. And it used to be gosh, it would be so easy at any given moment. Let’s say they’re even they’re in the D zone. Let’s say that they got stuck there for a second. And that didn’t happen to them a lot last year. But if you look, you could take a snapshot and you’d see the image of when you look at dice and you see a number five, like you’d see them in great shape that way. you you’d have you’d have obvious structure to how they’re playing and they protect the middle of the ice. Um you’re not seeing that right now. You’d have a PK even when we criticized it during stretches of last year because it was middling at times, especially earlier for a stretch. Um you know, they weren’t getting seamed and carved just as badly as they are right now. And um you know I I think there’s a chance Connor Halabuk saves a little bit of what Eric Comry has been letting in. But let’s be clear, the Jets have tried to stay aggressive and on their toes on the PK and they haven’t gotten the clears. They haven’t really um been effective at shutting down teams from getting their A looks and you know that’s a problem no matter who’s in net. And so if you’re not going to be able to hang your hat on those, well, let’s look over the power play where that Gabriel Valardi goal was their first in a while and they just haven’t been dominant on that front either. So I mean, you add it all up, it’s it’s problematic. And I think the biggest concern is you look at Josh Moresy playing 25, 26, 27 minutes. He’s getting probably exhausted. He’s getting beaten coverage sometimes too now when they’re chasing the game. got sorry for Leon and Connor’s minutes up there like and no the cavalry is coming in net but there’s no gamebreaker just waiting in the wings to show up and and save the flow of play otherwise they they have a lot to grow from well for sure and I mean listen in the short term speaking of the cavalry I mean that is either players from the moose or players from outside the organization which you know is far easier said than done in today’s cap world not to mention with what the Winnipeg Jets have and what Kevin Chevov has and is willing to trade. I mean, you know, at the start of this year, if I’d said, “Oh, yeah, maybe they’ll have their first round picker will be in play. Some prospects will be in play.” Well, we’re in such a different time right now with where the team is in the standings, you would be I mean, it would be a borderline negligence to do anything with an early pick this year based on where they are right now. And unfortunately, there’s sort of a pretty clear delineation between players that have value to the Jets and maybe elsewhere and then players right now that just are so far underperforming both their contract and their place on the team that that’s not really where trades come for for either. specifically to Hellabuk. Um, you know, if Hellbuck comes back in the next couple games and puts forth a Hellabakian performance and they can get a win, just a simple a start with him back in the net. How impactful could that be? Because, as I say, I’m with you. Like, there’s so many other things that are going wrong. A great goalender will mask it. it’ll maybe push it down the road a little bit, but there’s so many other things that need to change and players that need to step up and play that. I mean, to me, I can’t wait for Heli to get back, but I don’t think that that is going to be anywhere close to a cure all for what’s ailing this team. Yeah. Well, the difference is like you mentioned the negligence that would be involved in trading their first round pick. That’s fifth overall you’re talking about right now. That’s the highest Winnipeg Jets draft pick since what Patrick Line. Like that’s that is an incredible asset. And the and the it’s astonishing that Winnipeg holds on to the presumid fifth pick as of right this minute. The difference that Hellbuck makes though, it’s measurable, right? You can you can plot out even just a difference in their save percentages this season. the difference between Hellbuck and Eric Comry behind the same problematic five-on-5 team, the same problematic PK. Um, you can plot it out and there’s real goal differential to be changed by upgrading to Connor Halabuk there. He is a differencemaker and probably that difference is between a top five pick and maybe a wild card spot. I think that he’s that good. I think the Winnipeg Jets, despite being a flawed team, are good enough to be propped up by goalending as as great as hell can be. And like there’s some fans who are going to look at that proposition and call it like the wrong play. Like there there’s a there’s a fire up the the lottery pick movement happening in some corners of the internet right now. And I think Halabuk’s good enough to change that. I think if you’re trying to maintain some positivity or some optimism about the Winnipeg Jets, the other thing that Halibu’s return does is it buys them time. They got a lot to sort out. They have an awful lot to sort out and they need more from so many players. Scott O’Neal told me in backtoback yesterday and today, maybe the day before that, when I’m asking him questions about the roster construction, he keeps repeating, “Well, we need other guys to step up, too. We need we have other players that need to make differences.” And they need time to figure that stuff out for various reasons individually. that middle six, that bottom line, like there’s a lot there that needs to be delivering more and maybe Connor Halabuk helps the team tread water until they catch something amongst that group. Um, Hella Buck aside, um, because he is a one of one and will certainly help, but we’ve seen what’s happened with this club even before he was out and it was going in the wrong direction rather quickly. Um, I remember asking, I think it was you after the Anaheim game about a month ago, what must Kevin Cheoff be thinking, you know, in the building last night watching his team look the way they did against a younger, faster team? Well, fast forward right now. I think the thinking at the time was, “Oh, that was ugly. We’ll figure it out. We’ll get better going forward.” I mean, we’re now another month, a month where the Jets have been playing at a level that is 32nd in the National Hockey League. Um, what do you think is I is is is being contemplated right now of the limited options that they have to try to stop the bleeding and to get more out of in particular a forward group that has been um consistently underwhelming and a many players that you know seemingly have no answers to you know what they’re expected to do and the ability to do it. Well, I’d love to give you an answer that gives the, you know, the diehard fans in the chat right now something to feel good about, but I don’t have that answer. I don’t think that like I I think that whatever level of misery they’re experiencing as they’re looking at the the play of the Winnipeg Jets right now, I mean, if you look at the decisions they’re making, they have to believe the answers are coming from within the room or else there would be more commitment to change. you know, the the tweaks to the top line, the tweaks to the lines, the shuffling of the of the chairs, so to speak. Those are things that you that that you do when Alex Aalo is a placeholder for Gabriel Valardi to make that return someday. This is not a revolutionary line shuffle from that group. When you hear Scott Arneil asked about calling players up from the moose as he was today, like what other roster moves do you contemplate? and he says, ‘Well, you know, that was easier to do when we had injuries to make room. Right now, that’s not easy to do. That means that he believes the answers are in the room. This is a veteran team that’s all in on those veterans. They’re not making the revolutionary change of putting Gust of Nyquist on waiverss like I saw someone suggest like these are not that’s not coming down the pipe. The cavalry isn’t coming from the moose. And there’s also a huge movement saying, “Hey, play the kids. Play the kids. The kids aren’t performing. you you you want Brad Lambert to step back up to the NHL and somehow be the inspiration that changes changes the dynamic here. Well, look at his scoring rates in the AHL. That’s not a top six impact player at any level. Uh certainly not one that’s going to be the boost at the NHL level. So when you then have that being a trade chip that everybody knows is a trade chip, you’re not getting a top six boost via Lambert Hanola and a second and even that second round pick right now is in the top 40 based on how the Winnipeg Jets are in the standings. And you might not want to trade that if you’re the Winnipeg Jets either. So like is there something coming down the pipe? It’s hard for me to believe that. Um, I do think they do need a bit more jam in that middle six. I I love the idea of a Mason Marshment type uh disturber who can play with skill, but the Seattle Kraken aren’t making that move until JJ Schwarz is healthy. And then even then, they’re not doing it for for Lambert and Han and whomever you want to throw in there. So, that points us back to I believe the Jets believe the answers are in the room or they’re willing to at least ride it out and see what misery they end up with if they’re not. Uh, I got bad news. Um, the second round pick that we were just talking about that’s right now in the top 40, that’s already been traded. Uh, as has the second round pick in 2027. Um, and I believe those were both part of last year’s deals with Brandon Tannon Tanv and uh, and Luke Shen. So, it’s the first pick. I mean if anything and it’s crazy to talk about this at the 30 game mark Morat but I mean we are getting into an area that this would be advanced. I mean but in around Olympic time I mean if things haven’t changed significantly all of a sudden the fact that they traded those picks away might be some targets of what they’re trying to add if in fact they get to the point that this is a season that is basically lost. And I can’t believe I’m saying that 30 games in, but it is very hard not to read the tea leaves and look at the standings and realize that that at some point is going to be reality if things don’t change significantly. I am embarrassed that I forgot those picks were moved. The second went out as part of as part of the package for Luke Shen who is getting smoked on the Winnipeg Jets third pair. Um that is a problem. the Winnipeg Jets gave that pickup. And if the fourth round pick is also inside the top 100, two top 100 picks for a player who doesn’t have the pace to play and impact the game on a third pair that’s largely been sheltered. I mean, no wonder he’s dropping the gloves. He’s he’s a gamer. He’s trying. He’s doing his best to make an impact, but the game has passed him by. There’s a speed element and a puck movement element that the Winnipeg Jets don’t have and they paid richly for it and that may in and of itself mark the end of what had been a hot streak for Kevin Shovel day off and we gave him his roses during that period of time where he was getting Nino Nether Rider for a second round pick. I think it’s worth saying hey there have been some major misses on on his part in in recent in his more recent transactions. That’s a problem. If they thought they had everything and just needed a tiny bit of playoff experience, well, it’s clear that they don’t have the horses and the playoff experience that they added may not even be an everyday NHL player at this stage of their career. That’s a problem and part of why we’re talking about a whole host of problems. And I’m not ready to say wasted season or anything like that yet, but some people are. And you know, I’m not thinking that that’s unreasonable either. That’s I’m embarrassed. I forgot. And it it really is emblematic of everything I think that’s going on in Winnipeg right now. I mean, I I mean, here here’s the reality. We’re 30 games into the regular season, which means there’s 52 games more on the on the SCD, including tomorrow night against Washington. The team is one game under 500. I mean, realistically, I think at this point to to to be in the playoffs, sometimes the playoff line has been as high as 100 points with all the three-point games, but let’s be conservative and say that the playoff line is going to be 95 points, which it could definitely be higher, but in in the West right now, the wild cards are higher in the East. So, let’s say it’s 95 points. To get to 95 points at the end of the year, you need to have 13 more wins than you do regulation losses. Well, the Jets are minus one in that right now. So, in 52 games, you’re talking about needing to have four to be 14 games above 500 over 52 games to be in that threshold. Um, you know, you do the math, that’s what, 30, 16, and six. That seems like a really tall task for this hockey club right now. Even if you come back and get the best of Connor Hella beginning hell tomorrow night, it all points to the amount of help that the Winnipeg Jets need to to make a playoff push. You need Hella Buck to come back and be great. You need some magic to happen in their special teams which have gone cold. You need help in the standings cuz what you’re projecting right there does sound like a task too far. I also saw a projection. I think it was Dom at the Athletic who was putting his Western playoff cut line in the 80s and like my memory we just proved isn’t perfect, but it was a uniquely low cut line, especially compared to the East where a whole bunch of teams are are on pace for higher than that. So, you need kind of a miracle in just how the competition suses itself out. And then what are you playing for there? like you’re playing for a miracle against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round at this rate because you’ve squeaked into the playoffs. You haven’t buried other teams like you did last year. And there’s a lot of people who would say that that’s like if you’re just trying to optimize the cup window that the Winnipeg Jets have in front of them, it may have been better if they tanked. And that on a win now team that’s spending all kinds of money on veterans. Look at the veterans they signed in the off season. The cap hits attached to some of them. If Taves hits his games played bonuses, like that is a stunning miss. And it it makes us wonder when they sat down in the summer and asked themselves, well, what’s gone so well for us in the last little while? What do we have going for us? And what do we need? They might have gotten those questions wrong. Um, and Hus, I’m going to say something crazy. I I don’t I’m not out on them being a playoff team, as astonishing as that record is. I am out on them doing something in the playoffs, I think, at this stage, without something just striking. But somehow I think Adam Lowry is going to get a bit more step in his game. Taves is going to stay on the fourth liner, prove he doesn’t deserve to be there. I’m going to see some incremental steps from Perfetti and Samberg who started the season hurt. I’m going to see not a sea change. I’m not selling transformative excellence top to bottom of the roster, but I think there’s enough players who aren’t at their absolute best right now who will improve that I could see the Winnipeg Jets plus Connor Halabuk squeaking their way in. You know what the You know what the funny thing is, Morat? And I’m already hearing myself say this in oh I don’t know about March 28th or something like that. If if if they are able to um pull themselves out of where they are with some of the things that you mentioned and getting back in the mix and to a point where you know they could very well be a wild card team. I can hear myself now convincing myself, hey, it was a terrible first half, but to be where they are right now, they’ve been really good over the last two, two and a half months. Fire it up, get the white zone, and get ready to go. I mean, I I get it. You know, we live in the moment, and the moment right now is really really down for people that follow this hockey club. Um, but I am sort of with you. there’s so much more to that get to get out of many of these players that we’ve seen before that that’s certainly not out of the question. I mean, I will say this for what it’s worth. I mean, the people that I always kind of follow are the betting companies. Um, you know, with what the risk that they’re taking on particular teams, the Jets yesterday going into last night’s game at 500 were still a minus 120 favorite to make the playoffs compared to the other teams around them. Now, that will certainly change if this continues. Uh, but um it the the point is well taken. Um, you know, from what we’ve seen to what we know this team is capable of um especially with the return of Connor Halabach, like I can’t imagine it staying as dire as it is. But I will ask you, Mara, at what point if this continues, does management completely change course and sort of realize that this is a lost year and punt on the season to both hopefully get a better draft pick, maybe recoup a few more assets, knowing that this core is still going to be here and still talented and still able to do good things. if the mix and surrounding cast is different and better. Yeah, I think the answer is going to be slower than Winnipeg Jets fans want the answer to be. I’m anticipating early new year meetings on behalf of management and pro scouting and all of that. Maybe intensifying during the Olympic break, assuming there is an Olympic break. Um like that’s the chapter of the season where I mean that’s only a month and a half away at this stress at this stage, isn’t it? And so presumably in that scenario, you’ve gotten Connor Halabuk back. You’ve given yourself time to have a miracle or not. And remember like they’re still going to have over half the season left to play with Connor Halabuk back at the rate that he’s seems to be progressing. So that’s that’s hopeful. But if you’ve given that some weeks and it’s not working, the problems are too big, he can’t even paper them over, nobody stepped up, none of these pro like suggestions I’m making of improvements incrementally, none of that’s happened. I think it’s in advance of the of the Olympic break. And I think that’s a time probably you start to see um management teams from around the NHL sort of pick lanes to to a certain degree depending on the standings. And then it’s it’s go time between then and and the trade deadline to actually make the sales, actually move the bets for picks, actually do the sorts of things that commit yourself to to acknowledging that this was not your year. I think one of the worst things that Winnipeg could do would be to stand pat and finish five points shy of the playoffs, not even getting that chip in a chair, not even getting a chance at a miracle um for their troubles. And they’ve got to be honest with themselves when time runs out. And I think for me that’s you know late January and in in and around then I think you’ll have a clearer picture. Yeah. I mean uh listen um you know we have seen it before the line year in particular where they probably weren’t intending on being there and then there was a bunch of guys that had nagging injuries that were shut down for the end of the season and it sort of helped them move into that spot and then obviously they won the lottery and moved up and ended up picking second overall. Um it is a pretty stacked draft from uh many of the experts. So that’ll be something people will be uh talking about. But the fact that we’re even talking about high draft picks at this point with the expectations going, I think speaks to um just how shocking and and and sad it’s been uh to see the way this team has played. [Music]

The Winnipeg Jets are spiraling — and the questions are getting louder.

Andrew “Hustler” Paterson is joined by Murat Ates of The Athletic for a deep dive into what’s gone wrong with the Winnipeg Jets this season.

From defensive breakdowns and special teams struggles to the looming impact of Connor Hellebuyck’s return, Murat explains why this feels bigger than a slump, and why help may not be coming from within the organization. They also discuss the Jets’ draft position, trade options (or lack thereof), management decisions, and whether this season could quietly slip away if things don’t change fast.

👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments: Fix it… or face reality?

👍 Like | 💬 Comment | 🔔 Subscribe for daily Jets coverage

Topics:
Jets’ alarming drop from October form (00:00)
Defensive structure completely breaking down (01:55)
Why penalties and PK struggles are compounding the problem (02:35)
Can Hellebuyck actually save this season? (05:27)
The danger of trading a potential top-5 pick (06:14)
Are the answers really “in the room”? (09:27)
Why call-ups and line shuffles won’t fix much (10:00)
Jets’ asset problem: picks already gone (12:00)
Criticism of recent Kevin Cheveldayoff moves (13:58)
Is this season already slipping away? (15:01)
What it would take to make the playoffs from here (15:28)
Tank vs push debate — and the uncomfortable middle ground (17:14)
When management may be forced to change course (20:25)
Late January as the true turning point (22:24)

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