Dolphins vs Steelers Picks – NFL Week 15 Monday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Dolphins vs Steelers Picks – NFL Week 15 Monday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Yo, what’s up? Welcome back to another episode of the SWAS. Finishing up NFL week 15 here, Monday Night Football between Miami and Pittsburgh. As far as today, I am slightly down. Started off the day well, too. My two biggest bets hit early. Things were looking all right. Really needed Shidor Sanders to score a touchdown at the end there to give me that over. Um, and then the under in the Lions Rams wasn’t even close. Then I lost the under in Vikings Cowboys. Uh, still up on the week though because I had Falcons and over on Thursday night. So, still having a profitable week, but I need if I lose this one, then I actually slip into the red for the week. So, hopefully get this Monday Night Football game. Yeah, let’s get into it. I mean, is Cooper Russ two and a half points? I would hope Quinners put up a decent statline against Arizona State. If he didn’t, we have a real problem. You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they had the one good game against Kansas at home. When toast talks about the kicking market, it’s like some earth is flat [ __ ] Andy, true or false, this is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it’s going to be very ugly. I think this is going to be ugly. Hey, get this to us. All right, we got Miami on the road at Pittsburgh. This one opened up three and a half. It looks like the Dolphins did get hit at 3 and 1/2, but it it could have also been TJ Watt or some injury news that sparked the movement as well. Regardless, it moved down to three. We’re now at 50K limits and we’re looking at a flat three. We take a look at Juice Reel here at 3 and a half. What does it say here? 83% of the best bettors on the app are on the Miami side. But look what happens when we switch it to three. Looks like some of the sharper beters on the app are well 58% of the confirmed most profitable bers on the app actually seem to be switching on over to the Pittsburgh side at a flat three. Monday Night Football, Miami’s on the road in Pittsburgh. Let’s get into it. Uh Pittsburgh coming off a much needed huge win. Now, it wasn’t a win or go home. their season wasn’t over if they lost this game or anything, but the the current temperature in Pittsburgh uh the week before that this they kind of got blown out at home by Buffalo and there were fire Tomlin chants in Pittsburgh. Something I never thought we’d hear. So, they really needed this one and it was a huge division win. They went on the road to Baltimore. Final score was 2722. Definitely a controversial call or a non- call. Well, I guess it was a call cuz I think they called it a touchdown and then overturned it. I forget exactly how it went down, but the guy caught it in the end zone. Did he get the Did he do a football move and they ruled it a non-catch? That touchdown would have given Baltimore the lead and then obviously they never scored again. That would have given them a 28-27 lead. Harbaugh was uh less than thrilled with the call. He said the uh the current NFL catch rules are about as clear as mud. Now, you got to keep in mind with these postgame interviews, man, the game just ended. Some of these comments are made out of frustration and yeah, he probably shouldn’t have said that. In all honesty, the officials pro they probably made the right call. At least if you ask me, he didn’t make a football move. And if you interviewed me about a game where I lost a bet and you interviewed me right after, I might say some wild [ __ ] I mean, right after there’s some frustration involved. Tomlin said, “That’s why you won’t hear me calling New York postgame for explanations and things of that nature. It’s not going to change the outcome.” So, yeah, kind of a controversial call there at the end of the Baltimore Pittsburgh game, but Pittsburgh does get the win. Uh, they’re currently in the driver’s seat of the AFC North, but they can’t afford to let up because Baltimore just went on the road and beat Cincinnati. And because the Ravens won that game, remember, these two teams play again. So, if the Steelers were to lose this game to Miami, they they got to beat Baltimore or it’d be a wrap. So, I I think as it stands right now, if they beat Miami, they might have the tiebreaker because of their conference. I’d have to look into that actually. But yeah, Steelers can’t afford to let up because Baltimore went on the road and beat Cincinnati and this isn’t going to be this is not going to be an easy one either. This Miami Dolphins team is on a war path right now. They’ve won five of their last six games. Their only loss was in week nine to Baltimore. Now, they played the Saints, the Commanders, the Jets, but they also beat up on Buffalo. They went into Atlanta, beat up on the Falcons. So, this Dolphins team is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. kind of sounds crazy to even say that, but they’re playing really well. And this is a Dolphins team that’s still mathematically alive here. They’re six and seven, and I believe their playoff chances are currently sitting at less than 1%. But I it’s been less than 1% for a while, and this team just continues to hang on. Uh if you ask me, I this team’s playing with confidence right now. This team has not quit. I think this team believes that they’re going to make the playoffs. Confidence is contagious, man. So confidence can be dangerous. This team believes they’re going to make it. Now, will they actually make the playoffs? Probably not. But they’re definitely playing with some confidence right now. They’re going on the on the road to Pittsburgh where the Steelers have not lost a This is kind of crazy. The Steelers have not lost a home Monday night football game since 1991. What is that? 35 years. 34 years since the Steelers have lost a home Monday Night Football game. Now, kind of an asterisk here. Uh, the reason I say that they lost a Monday night home game in 2020, but it wasn’t a Monday night football game. It was a game that was rescheduled due to COVID. So, they did lose a home game on Monday night in 2020, but it wasn’t technically a Monday Night Football game. So, a little bit of an asterisk here, but in terms of home scheduled Monday Night Football games, the Steelers haven’t lost one of these since 1991. 34 years since the Steelers lost a home Monday Night Football game. Now, in terms of to his history against Pittsburgh, he’s actually only played them once in his career. He’s 1 and0. They won that game 16-10. I think it was in 2022. Game was in Miami, though. He’s actually never played a game in Pittsburgh in his life. Uh obviously, we need to talk about we’re talking about uh Pittsburgh in December. We know it’s going to be cold supposed to be 14° Fahrenheit at the time of kick. 8 mph wind, so not too windy, but we know the lore here when it comes to Tua in cold weather. Tua in outdoor games below 50°, 2-7 in his career, 35-1 against the spread. You already know that’s always going to be a talking point with the Dolphins when we get into late November and December. Two can’t win cold weather games. We’ve been talking about it for years. And yeah, it’s true. Two-7 in his career. He did just win one though. It Well, in fact, two and seven in his career. Both wins were against were against the Jets, too. So kind of asterisks next to both wins here. Both of his cold weather weather wins were against the Jets. So that’s a concern. But he did just win one in cold weather just last week. He went on the road to Metife and the Dolphins offense looked great. 34 points, 6.1 yards per play, over 58% success rate. Granted, it was against the Jets. But I got to say, the way the Dolphins are playing right now, and I don’t necessarily mean playing well, they are playing well, but the way McDaniel is running the offense right now, it’s not like the Miami offenses we’ve seen from the last few years. This is one of the most physical downhill rushing attacks in the NFL right now. In the last eight games, they’re averaging 5.4 4 yards per carry, over 154 rush yards per game, 42.9% success rate per rush, and they’re matched up against a Steelers defense that is struggling against the run right now. The Steelers are actually a bottom 10 run defense this year. They’re 24th in success rate per rush, 26th in EPA per rush. And you look at their last five games, they’re allowing over 157 rush yards per game, over 4.7 yards per carry. Now, they did play Baltimore, Buffalo, the Bears can run the [ __ ] out of the ball this year. The Bengals can run the ball a little bit. Chargers. Okay. So, maybe they played some tough competition here, but check this out. And I didn’t write it down if it was the last five games or the last six games. I don’t know exactly, but in the last five or six games, the Dolphins lead the NFL in rushing, and the Steelers are dead last in rush yards allowed. So, you got a Dolphins rushing attack that looks unstoppable right now. And you got a Steelers defense that seems to really be struggling against the run. And this is a Steelers defense that’s dealing with injuries right now. TJ Watt with a collapsed lung. He needs surgery now. I’m reading that he might only miss a game or two. So, it doesn’t look to be that serious. Sounds pretty serious to me. It It was very unexpected, too. I didn’t even know he was injured and then popped up on Twitter that he was getting surgery for a collapse collapsed lung. He won’t be playing in this one. Still no Deshawn Elliot. James Pierre the corner is also out. They are getting Kyle Duggar back at safety, which definitely helps. But Derek Harmon’s on the injury report, too. He might not even play. So, in addition to struggling against the run recently, the Steelers are also dealing with key injuries on this side of the ball. And the Miami offense is in great shape right now. I mean, they’re completely good. Well, they’re not completely good to go. Obviously, there’s some key injuries, but none of them are new. Those offensive linemen have been out all year. Tyreek Hill’s been out for a couple months. None of these injuries are new in terms of the Dolphins offense we’ve seen for the last month. It’s the same unit out there. In fact, they’re even healthier because their right tackle, Austin Jackson, he got injured in week one. He missed nine or 10 games. He just came back a few weeks ago. So, this is about as healthy as the Dolphins offense has been all year. The way they’re running the ball, the way the Steelers have been struggling against the run, yeah, I think the Dolphins are going to be able to run the ball in this game. Now, obviously, I’m not in love with the idea of trusting Tua on the road in cold weather against Pittsburgh. I I get it. But the way Miami is running their offense right now, there’s not a ton of pressure on Tua. In his last six games, he’s averaging over 182 pass yards per game. He’s not dropping back to pass that frequently. Check this out. In his last four games, the most pass attempts we’ve seen from Tua is 23. In the last four games, he dropped back to pass. He had 23 pass attempts. That was the most we’ve seen from him in the last four. Miami is straight up running the football. They’re physical. They’re a physical downhill run game. And Tua, look, he hasn’t been terrible. He hasn’t been great, but they’re not really asking him to do a whole lot here. So, even though I don’t trust two in this cold weather on the road in Pittsburgh, the way Miami is running their offense right now, I think they can move the ball on this Steelers defense. We just saw Buffalo go on the road to this same building and run the ball all over Pittsburgh. I think Miami could do the same thing. Now, two is not Josh Allen. Uh, but I really think the Dolphins can run the ball on the Steelers and have some success. Now, on the other side of the ball, do we trust Pittsburgh to move the ball against this Dolphins defense? Obviously, if we’re looking at the year-long data, Edge goes to Pittsburgh offensively. They’re 18th in success rate, 15th in EPA per play. Dolphins defense 24th and 23rd. But just like the Dolphins run game, this defense has turned over a new leaf. They’re playing on a whole different level right now. Check this out. The Dolphins have not allowed more than 17 points in a football game since October. They haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a game since October. And I have concerns about this Steelers offensive line, specifically at left tackle. Check this out. So, their original starting left tackle is Brderick Jones. He got injured in week 12. So, back in week 12, Brderick Jones, their original starting left tackle, gets hurt. Calvin Anderson comes in as the backup. He plays the rest of that game. That’s in week 12. That week, he gets injured during practice. So, in week 13, Andress Pete starts at left tackle. So, now they’re down to their third string left tackle, Andress Pete. In week 14, which is the following week, Andress Pete gets a concussion and is now out with he’s in concussion protocol. So now the starting left tackle for the Steelers in this game is Dylan Cook. They had to bring him up from the practice squad. He has 13 career snaps in the NFL. That’s who’s starting at left tackle for the Steelers in this game. Dylan Cook, 13 career snaps. He he comes from the practice squad. So yeah, I’m a little concerned about the Steelers at left tackle, which is a pretty important position. I don’t know if you’ve seen the Sandra Bulock move. I’m joking. Left tackle’s a pretty important position and dude’s got 13 career snaps here lined up against a Dolphins defense that’s playing really well. And we’ve really seen the Steelers run game fall off. In the last two games, they’re averaging 35 rush yards per game, 2.2 yards per carry as a team. So, the Steelers haven’t really been able to run the ball recently. Are we expecting them to run the ball here against Miami? Cuz we were talking about the the Dolphins defense has come around, the Dolphins run game has come around. Look at specific look specifically at Miami’s numbers against the run. Through the first six games, they were allowing 5.7 yards per carry, over 169 rush yards per game. In their last seven games, they’ve been one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Four yards per carry, 34.3% success rate per rush is great. This defense has been rock solid against the run. And this is a Steelers offense that hasn’t really been able to run the ball the last couple weeks. This is also a Miami defense that’s in great shape injury-wise. There’s no injuries on this Dolphins defense. Storm Duck is out, but he’s been out for several weeks. And they’ve got Ashton Davis, they’ve got Roswell Douglas. They’re pretty deep in the secondary. So, no, I don’t think Pittsburgh’s able to run the ball in this game. Now, in terms of Aaron Rodgers, it’s tough to say. He looked great last week on the road in Baltimore. And the Steelers were unusually aggressive with Aaron Rodgers in this game. Actually, I I think they took a deep shot on the first offensive play to DK Metaf. And we actually saw him connect on another big throw to Metaf shortly after that. So we saw them taking some deep shots, which is not what we’ve seen from the Steelers. For the most part this year, we’ve seen a pretty conservative offensive game plan from Pittsburgh. Last week on the road in Baltimore, we saw the Steelers get a little bit aggressive and it was successful. Rogers had 284 yards, pass rating over 103. So maybe the Steelers come out aggressive throwing the ball downfield in this one. I suppose there’s a path there. I I don’t want to get too over the top with it though because just a couple weeks back in this same building, Aaron Rogers was really struggling. Home game against Buffalo, 117 passing yards in the game, 65 pass rating. Now, I believe this was his first game back from injury if I’m not mistaken, so maybe we cut him a little bit of slack, but the way the Dolphins defense is playing, they’re locking down the run. Their numbers against the pass in the last three games are elite. And this is where I guess we can poke holes in Miami’s defense. 6.1 yards per pass attempt. An average opponent pass rating of 664 in their last three games. That’s great. They played who? Mariota, Tyler Shuck, Brady Cook mostly in the Jets game. So maybe Aaron Rogers is a step up in competition compared to the quarterbacks they’ve seen in the last few weeks. But I mean, don’t forget Miami beat up on Josh Allen just about 3, four weeks ago. What was that, a month ago? So yeah, I’m on Miami in this one. As you probably could have deducted from what I was saying, I actually still think it’s bettable now. I’m on plus three and a half. I bet it early. I think it’s still playable at plus three. I would make the game two and a half. So, I actually think still think it’s playable at plus three. Think this is a close game. I think the Dolphins are able to uh control the clock and hold on to the football on the ground. I’m not in love with the idea of backing Tua in the cold weather, but here we are. Dolphins plus three and a half is my bet. I’d probably still bet it at plus three, honestly. Thanks for watching. Live shows at midnight Eastern time as always. If you’re able to make it, we’d love to see you in the comments. Have ourselves a nice Monday night. Remember to bet responsibly. See you tomorrow.

Kyle Kirms shares his breakdown and picks for the Week 15 Monday Night Football game between the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers.

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