Nice write-up before the projections that basically boils down to… who the fuck knows what will happen with this team.
Last paragraph is a nice summary:
The easiest thing for people to do is set this past season as a baseline and understand that this team isn’t going to be much better in 2026. But using last season’s record as a baseline is generally a poor idea, as there’s a good argument that a lot of the 2025 Twins underperformed their actual ability. It’s the same kind of shortcut reasoning that caused people to underrate the Blue Jays going into this season, assuming that the Jays had to build up from their actual 74-win total in 2024 rather than from something closer to 81-83 wins, which was about Toronto’s true talent level. The 2025 Twins were better than a 70-92 team, but they do have some problems with their offense that they may or may not address between now and next season. If the season started today, the Twins look like a roughly .500 team, with their expected win total somewhere in the 78-84 range, but they’re close enough to good that if they were to hit their upside scenario, they could be an interesting contender. How much the Twins end up pushing that upside scenario, rather than simply deciding not to make the team worse, is something I just don’t know yet.
Also count me in for a 13HR – 63 RBI and 1.9fWAR rookie season from Kaelen Culpepper.