"solidly above average"… So you're saying there's a chance 😁
Pretty spot on assessment in my view of the current roster. Still a good bat and SP away from being a real contender. AJ's on it!
"solidly above average"… So you're saying there's a chance 😁
Pretty spot on assessment in my view of the current roster. Still a good bat and SP away from being a real contender. AJ's on it!
6 comments
Background info:
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/projection-systems/szymborski-projection-system
Key Aspects of ZiPS:
Developer: Dan Szymborski (in early 2000s), a prominent baseball analyst.
Function: Predicts future player statistics (hits, home runs, strikeouts, etc.) and overall value (like WAR) for upcoming seasons.
Usage: Found on FanGraphs, often alongside other systems like Steamer, and provides data for fantasy baseball and team management.
Methodology: Combines historical performance with aging curves, park factors, and other variables to generate detailed, data-driven forecasts.
Related links:
https://baseballpastandpresent.com/interviews/dan-szymborski/interview-dan-szymborski
http://www.astroscounty.com/2016/12/zips-projections-over-time.html
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2025-zips-projections-are-imminent
Honestly, if we got 90 wins last year with King being a non-factor, Darvish being ineffective, and Cease essentially being an expensive innings-eater (I don’t care if his FIP was great, only Toronto will benefit from that now), I don’t see why we can’t repeat or improve that with the rotation we’re rolling with in 2026.
Barring injury, I think Pivetta and King are going to completely ball out in their platform years, I highly doubt ZiPS’ negative outlook on Pivetta next year.
Innings Musgrove will pitch returning from TJ couldn’t be worse than Darvish with half an elbow and JP Sears is a career 4.53 ERA pitcher, practically matching Cease’s ERA last year (4.55).
If we get a depth arm or two beyond the question mark that is Waldron to supplant the cromulent innings Bergert and Kolek contributed last year, we’re so golden imo
“ZiPS isn’t as excited as Steamer is about the bullpen, but it does see it as a solid B/B+ squad.”
lol
Why they so low on Laureano
Imho, ZiPS seems about right for most of our guys, but I’d say it’s off for the below players.
too low: Pivetta, King, Vasquez, Morejon, Adam, Laureano
too high: X, Campy, Wagner, Tirso
What this looks like trended.
https://preview.redd.it/t2fx5bywqdcg1.jpeg?width=280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=03b323bd703035631fa29d59ac0744e4c6487821
2024-25 are actuals. Looking very similar to last year, with big step down in relievers. Suarez was 1.9 WAR. But then we will have a full year of Miller.