The Bat X (slide 1) and OOPSY (slide 2) projections are out now and I thought it would be interesting to share and discuss. For context Bat X is generally considered one of the best projection systems for position players and OOPSY is a newer projection model that incorporates more of the advanced statistics (notably bat speed and tracking). OOPSY also has a strong reputation, tho it doesn’t have the lengthy track record of the Bat X.

I found it interesting how the Bat X does not like the Mets’ younger bats (who collectively shown pretty strong analytical improvement in the second half) and Carson Benge while OOPSY is high on the entire team.

It’s perhaps notable that the other projection systems that are out now (Steamer and fangraphs depth charts) look closer to the OOPSY projections, but Bat X is generally viewed as more accurate than each of these systems.

Regardless the difference in projections being essentially a 4th place team vs. an elite offense is massive which drew me to posting this.

25 comments

  2. BatX has the longer track record

    OOPSY has preformed better the last 2 years

    One thing of note is that BatX’s formula is not really built to project rookies/younger players while OOPSY’s is because more equipped as it bases itself off the AAA Statcast data

    OOPSY is the better system to use for a team that has a lot of young talent on it, BatX tends to be better for a team that is very veteran heavy

  4. If the bat is right we’ll be the 2022 Washington Nationals with Soto (Soto) and Bell (Lindor) and a whole lot of nothing else, so I’ll choose to believe oopsy

  7. if Alvy has a full season, there’s almost zero percent change he’s below average WRC+. I expect Baty and Vientos to be above league average as well.

    Benge at 105 for OOPSY may be too high. I’d take league average bat from Benge in a heartbeat for a rookie centerfielder.

  8. Plus I’d love to see when ATC comes out. Individual systems are nice, but composite rankings is always better than a singular system by itself

  9. I’m pretty firmly in the “deal Vientos” camp at this point, while also solidly in the “why the fuck did we sign a 2b to play 1b?” camp too.

  12. High on Baty, neutal on Semien (by that I mean I think he’ll average out to a wRC+ of 100ish), and down on Alvarez and Polanco. Alvarez actually has to stay healthy for me to have faith in him and Polanco feels like it could be another Christian Walker scenario where he just sucks because he’s in his mid-30’s now.

    Also, the BatX has Benge striking out at a 27% clip, which feels excessive for a guy who’s average K rate was 17% last year.

  17. Baty was a consistent enough hitter in the second half of the year last year that I would be surprised if he regresses as much as the first slide indicates. Even the second slide might be underrating him a bit. He finished 2025 with an xWoba .334 even after a rough start to the season so a woba of .321 or higher in 2026 seems well within reach for him.

    Alvarez I’m less confident in because he’s a catcher, but assuming he can stay healthy enough he should also do better than the first slide. Maybe somewhere between the first and second slide is realistic for him.

  18. I’ll take the over on Baty. The system is looking at a guy who was awful for most of his career and isn’t going to think that maybe he figured something out last year. Baty should be a productive bat this year and the projections aren’t going to pick that up fully.

    But yeah, I think we do need another bat. Tucker would be awesome. I think our lineup is full of young guys and we could easily beat these projections. But let’s not rely on that if we don’t have to. Tucker is available and fits a clear need. Let’s get him.

  20. This team is going to be in very rough shape if Baty, Vientos and Alvarez don’t pick it up.

  21. I’m expecting Baty to have a big year, he finally blossomed after all star break.

  22. The “kids” really need to step up this year. We need 2024 Vientos and Baty (last 100 games 2025) to make some noise.

  23. I’m too high. I read that as “Mets Hitler” and I was gonna say oh c’mon, Stearns ain’t THAT BAD

  24. this feels like wild underestimations on Baty, Alvarez, and Benge. when Alvy is healthy he’s insane, Baty has gotten consistently good, and I feel like people are biased from Benge’s AAA injury numbers…

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