Maybe I’m missing something but his stats aren’t mind blowing. And I understand the game discrepancy here (that also matter though.) However plate appearances are similar.

In half of Tucker’s seasons (4/8) he’s never played over 100 games. His most home runs was 30, twice. Only top 10 in MVP in voting once. Never scored 100 runs and has only had 100 RBIs once.

I’m cherry-picking a bit but nothing jumps out and says “I gotta have this guy.” Now the Dodgers needed an outfielder and they can afford to piss away money however they please. He’s a “good” player and a nice outfield addition. (And I know it’s not my money…)

But the fact he’s given the second highest AAV contract is kind of egregious. He’s making less than Judge, Soto, Guerrero… everyone except Ohtani who’s two players in one.

ESPN has him ranked the 50th best player in the MLB.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/playerratings

24 comments

  1. He has 30/30 potential but struggles to stay healthy. He’s probably not the greatest player to have as your #1 guy like on the Cubs but having him as your 5th best guy makes him a lot more valuable for the Dodgers.

  3. Yeah homie, that’s why $60 mil a year for 4 years is fucking stupid.

    That’s why it’s annoying, and why everyone is saying we are headed for a lockout, possibly an extended one. Because now, this also makes every other free agent this year an overpriced headache.

  4. beli fell off a cliff a few years back and has had a resurgence but i’m sure teams are scared of him falling back to how he was at the end of his dodger tenture

  5. Nice try Scott Boras. Now that you got Tucker signed you are going to argue Bellinger is just as good as Tucker. We ain’t fallin for it.

  6. He was the best available FA. In a limited marketplace, even flawed options look more appealing. Everyone knows its an over pay. All free agency is an overpay. Thats just how its always worked. Hes still a really solid player, thats kind of all he is though.

  8. Tucker is a 4.5 to 5.5 WAR machine…basically every year. He’s the epitome of consistent extremely good/excellent. He played half a year in 2024 (his best year) and still put up 4.7 (he might have been MVP that year if healthy all year)

    His biggest knock is he tends to miss a bit of time nearly every year to an injury (yet still cumulative WAR in that range.)

    Bellinger is very up and down and inconsistent year to year. He’ll have an 8 WAR, then some 1.5 to -1.5, then 4.8, then 2.2, then 5.5. So in an up year Bellinger is great for sure, but its only half his career.

  9. I partly agree, but part of this may be your perception of him. He get’s promoted as a big bat power guy, but what makes him great is his high OBP combined with his power. People care more about OPS and OPS+ than a lot of those other stats.

    Yes, his AAV is high, but I think teams are starting to dislike the 10-12 year deals when you are just paying an aging player $35M a year for the next 4 years and not getting much out of him. Rather pay him $60M a year now and not have to pay the big contract later.

  10. I don’t understand people thinking the Dodgers signed him to carry the lineup… 🤔

  11. Tucker played half the season with a fractured hand and strained his calf right in September and played through it, probably because he was about to hit FA. Additionally there isn’t going to be a better player on the market for 2 years. Was it an overpay? Absolutely but that’s just what the market dictates. Better to overpay for prime years than to be paying 30 million a year for his age 35-39 seasons.

  12. He’s exactly the kind of guy who is underrated, but now teams rate underrated guys exactly right.

    One of the best hitters in baseball for the past five years. Very consistent. Good fielder. Relatively young. Been hurt frequently but not chronically.

    I’d say if the various factors, the dearth of other guys available, the Dodgers’ resources and need, and the fact that this is his prime, not his decline, are the biggest reasons.

  13. He’s had a 4-5 WAR every year since Covid. He’s dependable and a good hitter. He’s also entering his age 29 season.

    There’s more risk with Bellinger who was non-tendered not long ago, has a more concerning injury history (that’s already taken away his MVP level power), and is older.

  14. Tucker is a good player, and fills a position of need for the Dodgers too. They probably overpaid, but that’s because they can. Would imagine he opts out after 2 and looks for a longer deal elsewhere, while the Dodgers bring one of their young prospects up.

    Trouble with Belli is you don’t know whether you get the good version or the bad version.

  15. Kyle Tucker has a 140 OPS+ for his career. Bellinger has topped that mark twice … the last time being in 2019. Bellinger also had a .715 OPS away from Yankee Stadium last year, after posting a .751 OPS in 2024. Tucker’s baseline and upside are way higher offensively. And, for what it’s worth, his injuries are semi-fluky, and might not be too worrisome.

    That said, his contract is definitely a product of the FA market looking sparse for the next few years. He’s probably the best position player on the market from now through 2028, and that’s crucial. The relative certainty of his offensive ability plus FA scarcity is a hell of a winning combination for his wallet.

  16. This sells Tucker short. He had a bit of a down season with nagging injuries. Look at his statcast last 5 years, hes flaming red in every category, no weakness on the batting side. Hes a very complete and solid bat with no flaws. His profile will also age well

  17. The dodgers- with Glasnow, Snell, et all- have shown that they’re not concerned about guys that can play 150+ games. They’re looking for marginal gains, especially in the postseason.

    So when you post this- do you notice that Tucker’s OPS+ is about 15% better than Belli’s? THAT 15% to the Mets might be winning 95 games instead of 92- which is worth $50m a year to them; but to the dodgers it might be the difference between winning a game 7 or not; which is worth $60m a year.

    The higher the stakes, the finer the margins.

    But also you’re comparing a low year for Tucker and a high year for Belli.

    If you average the past 3 years, Tucker’s is 151.3, Belli’s is 122.6. Go past 5 years (which include some REALLY bad years for Bellinger) and suddenly Belli’s below 100 and Tucker’s is 146.

    A lot of teams (almost EVERY team) can’t afford a $200m miss. They need to factor in the risk that a guy always misses a third of the season. The dodgers true advantage is they can afford the lottery ticket because *if* he’s there in October, and they win ANOTHER ring, then they will continue to have more revenue than everybody else

  20. Dodgers spent stupid money because they’re going fully all-in *this year* because they too have to know a lockout and some kind of harder salary cap/floor is right over the horizon. That’s why Tucker has an option out after the <probable> lockout season. They realistically know this super-team isn’t built to last.

  22. Saying Tucker played fewer games in 4 of his 8 seasons is a bit disingenuous. In 2018 and 2019, he played a total of 225 games in the minor leagues. Then in 2020, he played in 58 of the 60 games scheduled. He missed a significant amount of time in 2024, only playing 78 games (while putting up 4.7 WAR). Even including 2024, he still averaged 132 games per year.

    As far as Tucker versus Bellinger, Tucker has put up a minimum of 4.6 WAR each season for the last 5 year, while Belli only has 2 seasons out of the last 5 with that amount of WAR. There are also some concerns that Belli’s offensive numbers are helped out by the dimensions of Yankee’s stadium and wouldn’t translate to another field. Also Belli is about a year and a half older than Tucker.

    In terms of Tucker’s value in general, there are a few things going on. As others have mentioned, being the best available free agent counts as a lot. Also, salaries in general have been escalating so it’s hard to compare a contract signed in 2026 with one signed even a few years prior. And finally, comparing average annual value of a 10+ year contract to a 4 year contract leaves a lot out. The Dodger’s are only paying for Tuckers age 29-32 seasons.

  23. 4.7 WAR in 78 games in 2024, similar first half last year befoe playing through a broken finger. Ceiling of a 8 WAR season if he stays healthy, floor of 4-5 if he gets hurt again.

  24. You said it yourself, you’re cherry picking. You say he hasn’t played over 100 games in 4/8 seasons, this is just plain wrong. Two of those seasons he also played over 100 minor league games, and a 3rd was 2020 when he played 58/60 games in the COVID year. 2 Years ago was the only season failed to hit 100 games because of injury. Since he became a full time starter he’s been worth 27.3 WAR and, outside of the COVID season, his lowest WAR was the 4.6 he put up last year. Bellinger since COVID has had only 2 seasons above that 4.6, and since his MVP season has put up just 11.8 WAR, and 9.9 came in 2 seasons. In the other 3 seasons combined he’s been worth 1.9, including a truly awful -1.6 WAR season in 2021.

    Bellinger was MVP at 23, but has never really been close since then. Tucker was 5th in 2023, and would have challenged Judge in 2024 if he hadn’t got hurt, 4.7 WAR in 78 games. Bellinger’s best season over the last 4 years he slashed .307/.356/.525 with a 139 OPS+. Over the last 4 years Tucker has slashed .272/.366/.502 with a 144 OPS+. So Bellinger’s best recent season is what Tucker has averaged the last 4 years.

    I’m just glad the Mariners signed Julio when they did, because he’s a freaking bargain based on the money being thrown around these days.

    ETA: Fixed a critical typo on Bellinger’s WAR since Covid.

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