It's a slow Friday and I went down a rabbit hole. In the recent HoF election Hernandez made a big jump in the voters and there's a realistic possibility that we could see him elected into the HoF. However, I'm not sure why he's getting this kind of love whereas Santana put up a better career playing less time than Hernandez (15 years for Hernandez vs 12 years for Santana).
Is there something that I am missing? I grew up watching these two as a kid and thought that they were both amazing, but it doesn't make sense that Santana is on the ballot one year with 2.4% of voters compared to 46.1% of voters for Hernandez.
43 comments
Johan Santana is criminally underrated. That said, neither has the longevity for the hall in my opinion
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Santana was on a ridiculously stacked ballot while Felix has been on two weak ballots.
That’s really all there is to it.
Felix did hit a grand slam of Santana, maybe that’s it.
There seems to be growing acceptance for big hall over small hall these days. That probably helps Felix now.
Because the hall of fame is kinda stupid and we don’t need it as the framework for greatness in baseball
Before peak performance made it’s big headway into the HOF voting scene, the ballot Johan went on was *stacked.*
Here’s the players on his ballot that eventually made it into the HOF: Chipper, Vladdy, Thome, Hoffman, Edgar, Mussina, Walker, McGriff, Kent, Wagner, Rolen, Andruw.
Now include the controversial yet deserving consideration options: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Vizquel (who at the time wasn’t outed as an awful person), Ramirez, Sheffield, and Sosa.
It’s very clear that someone who had an unfortunately short impact career with a huge peak would fall off immediately before players of his kind were given stronger consideration.
Felix getting 2020s SP standards while playing in the 2000s
Yeah, no question Santana should get in if Hernandez does.
My only observation over the years is that everyone liked King Felix. He’s one of the few players where everyone had good things to say about him. That shouldn’t determine if he gets in or not though, but clearly, personality plays some sort of factor in players not getting in.
There’s a fairly good argument Johan Santana was robbed of the Cy Young in 2005 because voters cared so much about wins, and Bartolo Colon won 21 games. But if you look at every other statistic, Santana was head and shoulders above Colon that year.
If he’d won 3 straight Cy Youngs (instead of just the 2 separate awards), he’d probably have a much much greater case as he’d be in pretty exclusive company.
700 IP is a lot, despite the near-identical WAR totals I do think it makes a difference.
Johan hit the ballot at a bad time, combo of a crowded ballot and voters not being ready to vote in that type of guy at the time
I’m still pissed about Oswalt
At this point the only Hernandez I want to see in the Hall of Fame is Keith
IMO, neither belong in the HOF.
I think they should both be in. But I’m biased for Felix.
Felix has a perfect game. Santana doesn’t. I don’t think that is the reason alone, but it is something that is not listed in that particular stat sheet.
Santana’s short career led to countless comparisons with Koufax which is a brutal comparison (postseason greatness, 4 no-hitters, 300+ K seasons).
Not only was the ballot more stacked for Santana but there were a lot more recent SPs who’d been voted in. It’s a ghost town now until Greinke is up. Still 5 years until Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander hit.
David Cone and Kevin Brown were better candidates than Felix too but pitched in a HOF-rich era.
I think Santana, Cone, and Brown (albeit alleged roids and being a d*ck) should all have gotten 10 years on ballot. I mean – I’m taking any of those three guys over Helton or Billy Wagner.
Santana is my “exhibit A” for why hall of fame voting for starting pitchers is wrong. Any criteria that excludes Santana is flawed.
Neither should.
Santana was HoF eligible in 2018. That’s almost a decade ago, and the recognition that starting pitcher usage was different than it had been in the past had not fully set in at that point.
If Santana was on the ballot now, I’m pretty sure he would get in.
Johan Santana erasure will not be tolerated. I remember watching the guy pitch, he was the best at using the circle change since Pedro before him, just a nasty pitch when used correctly
felix is about as short of a career as i would consider for the hall. santana’s is roughly 75% of felix’s
Santana was basically done at 31. Another situation of a hall of fame player whos career got derailed by injury
Realistically, both probably belong in the Hall of Really Really Good
Purely timing. If Santana hit the ballot today, he’d probably be getting Felix-esque numbers. That said, there is also a difference in expectation between the era the two played in: Santana was the end of the “pitchers are workhorses” era of pitchers, where longevity and durability were expected. Felix’s career kinda bridges the gap between that era and now
This is something I wish more analysts would talk about rather than just applying today’s standards to yesterday’s starters.
Santana compares closely to Koufax, with (believe it or not) a slightly better ERA+. It’s only a matter of time before he gets in via the veteran’s committee.
Peak Johan was crazy good.
Maybe the injuries on the Mets jaded voters opinions on johan, or even joining the Mets in general? Felix had more longevity and stayed with one team his whole career. Prime johan was insane. Regardless of Johan though, Felix should probably make it.
It’s taken a while for people to adjust to the fact that starting pitchers are having shorter careers. Santana had more overlap with the long-career greats of the early 00’s.
Once they do start inducting guys with less than 150-wins it’ll be curious to see if people start making cases for guys who played earlier when pitchers were more durable. People throw era-considerations out the window if it helps their favorite candidate out.
Johan was on a ballot with Chipper Jones, Vlad Guerrero, Jim Thome, Trevor Hoffman, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Curt Schilling, Larry Walker, Fred McGriff, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner, Scott Rolen, Sammy Sosa, Andruw Jones. Even the most devoted Johan supporter would be hard pressed to find a place for Johan on their ballot with those names. The fact he got 2.4% is a miracle. Felix was competing with far worse players for votes and thus he got more. Lot fewer good players on this years ballot, so Felix can get support easier.
The writers voting now are different than the ones who voted on Johan. Felix getting traction is representative of a shift in how pitchers are judged in the modern game for the HOF. The old standards for counting stats have less sway.
Johan will get in on veteran’s committee. There’s no doubt in my mind.
Because it’s 2026 and not whenever Santana was on the ballot, which was also much more stacked? People now definitely are more positive on Johan.
Santana didn’t play long enough to end his career mediocre. Koufax was at the top of his game his last few years
If I was a voter, Johan would definitely have my support
Felix was my guy growing up, but he’s certainly not a HoFer IMO.
Aside from the Joke answer of hitting numbers against, Santana retired too early for his numbers to be looked to be looked at favorably, since most still looked at counting stats. I do wonder if Santana won the third CY if that would change things.
Billy Wagner , Harold Baines and Trevor Hoffman are in the hall of fame …
None of those guys ever came close to anything done by King Felix , Orel Hershiser , Doc Gooden or Johan Santana
If Johan were on the ballot today he’d have at least as much support as Felix (and probably would outperform him).
Johan was so good. He was the best pitcher in the AL for at least 5 years. Hope he gets another long look in the Vet’s committee. He at least deserved to stay on the ballot.
Felix hit a grand slam off of Johan, the writers and streets don’t forget.
Twins fan here who grew up watching and loving Santana: he pitched 700 less innings…I think it’s pretty obvious it’s a longevity thing, no? Probably the better comparison would be with other pitchers from the same era who have made into the HoF on similar innings.
Johan got done dirty. There are now 12 guys from THAT ballot that are now in the HoF. There also was Clemens, Bonds, Manny, Sheffield and Sosa.
Guys like Johan are why the veterans committee exists.
My guys is Felix is currently sharing a ballot with 2 other guys who will get in eventually, maybe 3 (plus the 2 that got in this year) and ARod and Pettitte who won’t due to PEDs. Makes it much easier to get in.