[Fangraphs] Six Takeaways from Our Playoff Odds Release: #2 Our Models Hate the Guardians

14 comments

1. This happens literally every year. Means nothing ha

2. Theyre not wrong that our offense sucks. But yea, this happens every year

3. It will never not be funny that Austin Hedges or similar caliber backup Catcher signing has been our top FA moves for like 4 of the past 5 offseasons

4. Yeah they have us well below teams that didn’t even make the playoffs in a division where no one did anything of note so just running it back is actually not competitively at a disadvantage. You wonder how these people get paid to do this for a living.

5. Seems about right, honestly. I can see us marginally closer to .500, but we were lucky to do what we did last year and we made no effort to get better.

6. Can’t imagine why

7. you’d think they’d tweak something when they are wrong 9 out of 10 years

   but this year putting them behind the twins who sold just about everything of value other than 2 pitchers and 2 guys who are always injured is just embarrassing

8. I mean, there is a very real scenario where this offense can drag us down to 76 wins.

   We’re relying on oft injured rookies and others who have shown nothing to take a huge step forward. It’s going to catch up to us at some point. We can’t keep relying on these insane September runs and the rest of the AL Comedy Central collapsing. It’s not hard to see why most models hate this team.

9. I think this team is good enough to win the division again but this offense simply isn’t good enough to win consecutive series against (hypothetically) Seattle, NYY and LAD. Division titles are great but it’s been nearly 80 years since a World Series and at some point I’d like to see this franchise truly try to win one of those.

10. I don’t think there is any issues there the twins having a 20% chance to win the division is a joke though

11. It’s nice to see FG publicly acknowledging that their model hates the Guards. I’ve been saying that for awhile and folks typically get all spun up and pissed when I do. I’m a little surprised they don’t have Minnesota winning the ALC again, lol. 

12. Lowest spending team in the league.

13. I see them failing to calculate the Vogt’s fat cock factor or the Festa .2 innings factor

14. How in the world are Twins projected to be better than us?