Derek CartyApr 21, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.
Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Tuesday’s top batter prop bets
Willy Adames | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.95 EV
Matt Chapman | OVER 0.5 RBI (+271)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.54 EV
Ernie Clement | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+118)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.01 EV
Hunter Goodman | OVER 0.5 HR (+469)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.23 EV
Kazuma Okamoto | OVER 0.5 HR (+810)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.21 EV
Tuesday’s top pitcher prop bets
Shota Imanaga | OVER 6.5 K (+116)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.09 EV
Reynaldo Lopez | UNDER 4.5 K (+104)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.05 EV
Kris Bubic | UNDER 2.5 ER (-139)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.62 EV
Kris Bubic | OVER 6.5 K (+104)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.24 EV
Ryan Weiss | UNDER 2.5 ER (-131)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.26 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Ryan Weiss
+123
45.5
1.29
+1.0
-124
-0.68
8.0
O -118
9.11
0.46
Parker Messick
-149
54.5
-8.79
-1.0
-105
-12.10
U -102
-9.65
Dustin May
-102
50.2
-0.15
-1.0
+121
-3.71
8.5
O -112
8.87
-9.65
Chris Paddack
-118
49.8
-8.40
+1.0
-158
-7.85
U -108
0.67
Chase Burns
-112
55.6
6.76
-1.0
+115
5.93
7.5
O +100
7.91
-3.64
Steven Matz
-108
44.4
-16.03
+1.0
-150
-15.45
U -120
-5.00
Kyle Harrison
-105
54.3
6.93
-1.0
+118
5.01
8.5
O -107
8.97
-6.08
Keider Montero
-115
45.7
-15.44
+1.0
-154
-14.51
U -112
-2.61
Luis Gil
-108
45.5
-12.47
-1.0
+117
-16.52
8.5
O -105
8.80
-8.02
Connelly Early
-112
54.6
3.26
+1.0
-153
1.75
U -115
-1.12
Reynaldo Lopez
-136
49.3
-14.12
-1.0
-111
-19.00
8.5
O -105
8.87
-6.87
Foster Griffin
+113
50.7
7.59
+1.0
-117
6.44
U -115
-2.22
Simeon Woods Richard
+149
40.8
1.62
+1.0
-101
0.98
7.5
O -105
7.86
-6.72
Nolan McLean
-181
59.2
-8.11
-1.0
-128
-12.26
U -115
-2.37
Shane Baz
+109
35.9
-26.31
+1.0
-137
-25.35
9.0
O -108
8.83
-19.46
Kris Bubic
-131
64.1
14.16
-1.0
+106
17.11
U -112
10.13
Jesus Luzardo
+102
46.9
-4.60
+1.0
-155
-4.45
8.5
O -108
7.92
-23.00
Shota Imanaga
-122
53.1
-3.98
-1.0
+119
-8.20
U -112
13.61
Carmen Mlodzinski
+100
50.0
0.36
+1.0
-156
-0.80
8.5
O -108
8.97
-6.59
Kumar Rocker
-120
50.0
-8.66
-1.0
+120
-12.99
U -112
-2.52
Randy Vasquez
-143
59.4
0.33
-1.0
-124
-0.84
11.0
O -110
12.58
8.95
Brennan Bernardino
+119
40.6
-10.30
+1.0
-105
-11.93
U -110
-18.04
Patrick Corbin
-105
44.4
-13.74
-1.0
+116
-19.06
9.0
O -120
9.26
-16.90
Jack Kochanowicz
-115
55.6
4.36
+1.0
-151
3.94
U +100
9.34
Sean Burke
+129
44.4
0.92
+1.0
-114
-0.45
9.0
O -112
9.55
-9.01
Merrill Kelly
-156
55.6
-8.22
-1.0
-114
-11.83
U -108
0.01
Jacob Lopez
+141
45.4
9.82
+1.0
-105
9.00
7.5
O -112
8.35
-1.84
Luis Castillo
-171
54.6
-13.74
-1.0
-124
-20.21
U -108
-7.29
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
-186
57.3
-10.79
-1.5
-105
-11.65
7.0
O -118
8.44
10.07
Landen Roupp
+153
42.7
6.21
+1.5
-115
2.36
U -102
-19.95
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
Athletics Moneyline:
The Athletics have won this bet in six straight away games. (+8.60 Units / 143% ROI). Current odds: +141
New York Mets Team Total UNDER:
The Mets have gone under in seven straight games. (+7.40 Units / 94% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +114
Kansas City Royals 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Royals have gone under in the first five innings in seven straight games. (+7.15 Units / 85% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -135