Bill Belichick’s Patriots won with a relentless attention to the minutiae.
Sure, the details could refer to the air pressure in footballs. To hand signals from opposing coaches. Or, as former Eagles analytics staffer Ryan Paganetti explained on social media yesterday, the video boards in front of kickers.
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Patriots field goal trick: Kickgate?
Yes, Belichick had a field goal strategy. Here’s how it worked: When opposing kickers lined up at Gillette Stadium, the video board displayed a reverse view of the kick, placing an off-center set of yellow uprights behind the real ones. See a few examples:
Diabolical. And perfectly legal, it seems. I couldn’t find a rule against it.
It also looks like it worked. Gillette Stadium opened in 2002 but didn’t add those video screens until 2010 (and Belichick’s tenure ended in 2023). Here are some kicking stats from 2010-2023:
84.3 percent: That was the league average for all field goals, per TruMedia.
83.9 percent: The average road percentage was nearly equal. Away games were more difficult for kickers, but only slightly.
77.6 percent: That’s the opponent’s rate in road games against Belichick’s Patriots, 6.3 percentage points lower than typical road kicks. 👀
I checked a few other variables. Gillette Stadium often has rough weather, but the same is true for stadiums like Buffalo’s (opponents averaged 83.3 percent) or Chicago’s (81.9 percent). None came close.
Also, New England’s kickers were subject to the same weather as their opponents. They just don’t appear to have seen the deceptive screens.
Nor were they similarly affected. Patriots kickers hit an above-average 88.2 percent of their field goals in Gillette Stadium.
Maybe opponents had a tougher time against Belichick’s defense and had to settle for more field goals? That’s not what home/road splits show. Per TruMedia, when the Patriots played road games, opponents made 81.5 percent of their field goals, about 4 percent better than in New England.
(I also looked at some other 2010s Patriots home games, seeing other road kickers facing the video screen with extra uprights. The screen was different for New England’s kicker. You can even see examples of both in the “on to Cincinnati” game.)
“It is the perfect encapsulation of the Patriots dynasty,” Ryan wrote. “No detail was too small, and no possible edge was left unexplored.” Let that inspire you today. Find that edge!
Why (not) the Rams?
“If I read one more story about the Rams as the Super Bowl favorites …” you’re not alone. Enough already. We get it.
This is not about that. The opposite, actually. Before I explain more, here’s where all 32 teams stack up in Super Bowl odds, as of last night.
Donald’s return didn’t change much, actually. “His coming back was very much anticipated, so we definitely had priced it in already,” one sportsbook director told The Athletic.
The Rams went from +550 to +500 at major sportsbooks like DraftKings, which implies about a 17 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. That’s a lot, but remember, it also gives them an 83 percent chance of not winning it.
Still, they are the betting favorites, well ahead of the second-place Ravens and Bills (+1000 each). I asked Mike Sando — now entering his 29th season covering the NFL — about what history suggests might happen here. It’s … sort of good news, depending on who you ask.
Sando’s Pick: Rams unlikely to flop, but …
These Rams feel like a dream team. How did previous teams like this fare?
💬 Only 10 NFL teams over the past 15 seasons have been stronger preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl than the 2026 Los Angeles Rams (+500, or 5-1).
For all the warnings about “Dream Teams” like the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles falling short, that notorious team was +800 (8-1) before finishing 8-8.
These Rams are in a higher stratosphere, and history says they will not exactly implode.
Those 10 other teams that were +550 or better to win the Super Bowl since 2011 all reached the playoffs.
They averaged 12.4 wins in the regular season, even with seven of them playing in the 16-game-schedule era. Five made it to the Super Bowl.
The less good news: All five Super Bowl entrants from that list lost the big game (2024 Chiefs, 2020 Chiefs, 2017 Patriots, 2014 Seahawks and 2011 Patriots).
Still, it’s a solid list and generally encouraging for the Rams.
The biggest question I have for the Rams entering the season is whether they’ve improved enough on special teams, where Seattle enjoyed a nearly four-touchdown EPA advantage in three games against the Rams last season, offsetting L.A.’s combined edge on offense and defense.
Sando also had NFL execs rank the NFC, noting the Rams went 1-2 against Seattle last season … with an ugly, -26.7 EPA differential on special teams. Oof.
Extra Points
🗣 Jayden Daniels exclusive. Go inside the Washington huddle, where the third-year QB is still learning. “For all intents and purposes, Daniels has never huddled play-to-play in his pro career.”
🏈 Jaguars, again? Liam Coen has bigger plans for Year 2. He borrowed one tactic from Sean McVay.
👎 NFL’s worst QBs. Saad Yousuf ranks the league’s 10 worst quarterback situations. Sorry Cleveland.
💬 ICYMI. As noted above, Sando had NFL execs rank the NFC. WARNING: The Cowboys are fourth.
▶️ Most-clicked: The wild videos of Daejon Love, the 35-year-old man who pretended to be a 49ers receiver.
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