There were some retirement rumblings around Sonny Gray this year but he’ll be back, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. “My family and I have talked about it and it’s an easy decision,” Gray said in a text message to the Globe. “I still want to win a World Series, whether that is [with] Boston or with whoever wants me.”
Gray will soon turn 37 but he is still a very effective pitcher. He just gave the Red Sox 169 innings over 29 starts, allowing 2.72 earned runs per nine innings. His 21.8% strikeout rate was essentially league average for a starter this year while his 6.7% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate were both better than par. He got a bit of help from a .283 batting average on balls in play and 83.2% strand rate. His ERA is perhaps a bit misleading but his 3.47 FIP and 3.92 SIERA suggest he would have still been effective with more neutral luck.
The only reason his status was somewhat questionable was due to his personal life. Gray mentioned in September that he would “be done in a heartbeat” if his family wanted him to give up the sport and be a full-time dad. It seems that the family discussion didn’t last too long. The Red Sox were eliminated less than two weeks ago but the Gray family has already made a decision about next year.
Gray will be heading to free agency in a few weeks. His contract with the Cardinals originally had a club option for 2027 but that was converted to a mutual option as a condition of him waiving his no-trade clause to be dealt to Boston. It has been over a decade since a mutual option was triggered by both sides, so it’s fair to assume a player will become a free agent in such situations.
He should be in high demand, as effective starting pitchers always are. His market will be interesting to watch due to his personal preferences. As mentioned, he has flirted with retirement. He also seems to have a preference for East Coast clubs so that he can be near to his Nashville home. The last time he was on the open market, he signed with St. Louis, one of the MLB cities closest to his home. He did approve a trade to move further away, so it’s not as though he has set strict limits, but it’s hard to say how willing he is to go to the West Coast.
Based on his performance, Gray has a case for a two-year deal at a hefty salary. Even if their late 30s, pitchers can be paid well if they continue putting up numbers. Max Scherzer got a three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets for his age-37 to age-39 seasons, though he just posted a 2.46 ERA with a 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate. Justin Verlander got two years and $86.67MM for this age-40 and 41-seasons, though he was coming off a 1.75 ERA season with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate. Gray isn’t quite in that league.
Merrill Kelly just got two years and $40MM last winter for a deal beginning with his age-37 campaign. Gray has a case to beat that. Kelly’s 2025 numbers were somewhat comparable to Gray in 2026 but Kelly’s 3.52 ERA was higher and his track record was more of a solid mid-rotation guy whereas Gray has long had front-end upside. Gray could perhaps seek a two-year deal worth $50 to $60MM in total.
That’s if he is looking to max out. Perhaps he would prefer to limit himself to a one-year deal so that he can reconsider retirement a year from now. His geographic preferences might also limit the field. If he does in fact prefer East Coast teams, that takes a few clubs off the board. Some of the East Coast teams are also potentially off his list. He infamously didn’t enjoy his time pitching for the Yankees in New York, for instance.
He also didn’t leave Boston on a great note this year. He was pulled from his start in the Wild Card round after 70 pitches in 4 2/3 innings. Afterwards, per Tim Healey of The Boston Globe, he expressed dissatisfaction with not having more trust. When asked if he would be willing to return to Boston in 2027, he said simply “I don’t know.”
His message to Speier today was more open but it’s hard to say if that’s genuine. As a free agent, it would be in his financial interest to express as much openness as possible. More viable landing spots would drive up the bidding. If he stated he were not willing to play in Boston, that would only hurt his earning power.
The Sox could certainly use him. They have three rotation spots accounted for by Garrett Crochet, Payton Tolle and Ranger Suarez, though Crochet isn’t exactly a sure thing after injuries wiped out most of his 2026. Beyond those three, the Sox have guys like Jake Bennett, Brayan Bello, Johan Oviedo and others in the mix but Gray would certainly be an upgrade over that crew.
There are many other options, as there are very few clubs who couldn’t use more starting pitching. There has been plenty of speculation over the years about Gray ending up in Atlanta due to that city’s proximity to Nashville but he hasn’t ended up there yet and there are other clubs with somewhat similar proximities. It’s also possible he prioritizes winning over geography this time, since his message today mentioned the World Series as his main goal.
Photo courtesy of Paul Rutherford, Imagn Images