The New York Mets (45-24) welcome the Tampa Bay Rays (36-32) for a three-game series at Citi Field. The Mets are 8-2 over their last ten games, while the Rays are 6-4, so this should be a fun matchup of two teams playing good baseball right about now.
The Mets are coming off of their second straight sweep, putting away the Rockies in Denver over the weekend and then just barely managing to eke out a win on Thursday to take three from Washington at home. A narrative that has been brewing all season is one of the Nationals being a better team than would be expected; Gary Cohen a number of times has mentioned on the broadcast that his expectations for Washington were maybe not going to be reflected in a great record, but that they would be a competitive team. While the Nats are in third place in the National League East, their losing record and poor performance against the Mets this week show that even if the team is improved, they are not in the same league as the Mets.
And while the Mets are not quite firing on all cylinders just yet – see the struggles of the bottom half of the lineup – things are starting to come together for the club. The top five in their line up – Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil – are all hitting at the moment, with Lindor’s broken-toe heroics against Colorado, Alonso’s continued mashing, Soto’s back to back games with home runs, and Nimmo and McNeil (and Alonso) all having multiple home run games shows a potent offense that still has room to grow.
Starting pitching has been a strength for the Mets all season, and perhaps the best performance of the whole season happened on Wednesday night, when David Peterson tossed a complete game shutout, allowing six hits, walking none, and striking out six. This piece of the team took a huge hit on Thursday when Kodai Senga injured his hamstring covering first base and hit the injured list. With the returns of Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea on the horizon, plus the depth of the Mets’ starting pitching in both the majors and upper minors, it isn’t as if there are no good options to replace Senga. But his 1.47 ERA isn’t going to just magically show up from another starter; the Mets are going to be a poorer pitching team without him.
The Rays are currently occupying third place in the American League East and would be tied for the second Wild Card spot if the season ended today. The Yankees are the clear class of that division, but both the Blue Jays and Rays are good teams that will likely stick in the hunt for most of the season. The suddenly resurgent Red Sox two two of three from the Rays this week, after the Rays had won seven of ten before that series against the Astros, Rangers, and Marlins.
On both sides of the ball, the Rays look about middle of the pack in terms of team performance. Their offense has been led by a pair of young players who are getting their first opportunities to play every day in Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda, as well as continued success from veteran Rays Yanny DÃaz and Brandon Lowe. There is some pop in these bats – perhaps aided from the cozy confines of Steinbrenner Field – but the team has been inconsistent offensively. They are capable of big games – they’ve put up 10 or more runs eight times this season – but they’ve also been shut out seven times. They have 15 comeback wins, but the pitching has also blown 11 leads.
The back end of the Rays’ bullpen is having a solid season, with Pete Fairbacks closing out games and Manuel RodrÃguez putting together an impressive run in his first season as a key member of the relief corps.
Friday, June 13: Clay Holmes vs. Taj Bradley, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY
Holmes (2025): 73.1 IP, 65 K, 23 BB, 8 HR, 2.95 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 76 ERA-
With every subsequent start, the Holmes as a starter experiment comes into clearer focus. He’s outperforming his FIP and has gotten a little home run susceptible since going his first seven starts without giving one up, but overall, his performance is just about all fans could’ve hoped for in a first year starting. Holmes went six solid innings in his last start in Coors Field, giving up just one run on a Ryan McMahon dinger.
Bradley (2025): 74.2 IP, 66 K, 29 BB, 10 HR, 4.58 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 119 ERA-
June 1st in Houston was Bradley’s best start of 2025: seven innings, one (unearned) run, ten strikeouts and two walks. June 7th in Tampa was Bradley’s worst start of 2025: four innings, seven earned runs, two strikeouts, and two walks. Sadly for Bradley, there have been more starts like the latter than the former, with only one other start this season where he delivered fewer than two earned runs.
Tonight is Pride Night at Citi Field, so let’s take this moment to wish a Happy Pride to all of our LGBTQIA+ friends, family, and Mets fans. I’m jealous of all the folks getting the rainbow tank at tonight’s game.
Saturday, June 14th: Tylor Megill vs. Drew Rasmussen, 4:10 PM EDT on SNY
Megill (2025): 64.2 IP, 84 K, 31 BB, 5 HR, 3.76 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 97 ERA-
The Megill regression has moved on from the nosedive segment and is now in the more stable zone. Because he still has options, it looked like Megill might be the sacrifice when either Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea returns. But with the injury to Senga, it seems that Megill will be here for a bit longer. That’s not to say that Megill has been bad or ineffective for the Mets. He’s been just better than league average by ERA- and has been keeping the team in games, which is sort of all you can ask. But when his Aprils are so enticing, it can be disappointing when subsequent months are not as impressive.
Rasmussen (2025): 69.0 IP, 59 K, 14 BB, 6 HR, 2.22 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 57 ERA-
After missing most of the 2023 and 2024 seasons due to internal brace surgery, Rasmussen is picking up where he left off, putting up a 2.22 ERA thus far. Rasmussen is seeing a lot of success getting weak contact, which has resulted in a lower strikeout rate but the lowest opponent’s batting average against of his career. Some of this may be luck – he’s also getting the most hard hit balls of his Tampa tenure but they don’t appear to be falling/scoring – but in his first healthy season in some time, Rasmussen is making the most of the opportunity.
Sunday, June 15th: Griffin Canning vs. Shane Baz, 1:40 PM EDT on SNY
Canning (2025): 64.1 IP, 61 K, 28 BB, 8 HR, 3.22 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 83 ERA-
Tuesday night’s start was one of Canning’s worst of the season – four earned runs, two home runs, seven hits, and two walks – but the process that got him to this point in the season continues to work. The start before that, against the Dodgers, was a masterful shut out performance over six innings, scattering just three hits. His revised pitch mix has been keeping hitters off balance and his confidence on the mound is leading to good results.
Baz (2025): 70.2 IP, 65 K, 26 BB, 13 HR, 4.97 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 129 ERA-
Shane Baz had a good April, a bad May, and so far is off to a more mediocre June. This is his first full year starting in the bigs, and there is obviously a period of adjustment when taking on that workload, especially as he’s still just about a year removed from returning from Tommy John Surgery, after suffering a myriad of elbow injuries earlier in his career. He’s been more home run prone this season – a bad trait coming into the current power-surging Mets’ lineup – but is also getting more ground balls than he historically has in the past.
Poll
How will the Mets fare in their three-game series with the Rays?
17%
One Man’s Dream – the Mets sweep!
(6 votes)
76%
Happy Talk – the Mets take two of three.
(26 votes)
0%
The Masquerade is Over – the Mets win one of three.
(0 votes)
0%
Mercy, Mercy, Mercy – the Mets get swept.
(0 votes)
34 votes total