Jurickson Profar can return from his 80-game drug suspension on Sunday, June 29th. The Atlanta Braves never really replaced his 2024 Padres production in their left field this year. How much of those 2024 numbers were drug-enhanced and what would a “clean” Profar look like going forward?
As far as the effects of human chorionic gonadotropin and their absence on a professional athlete, I have no idea. It’s not a cop-out, I just literally don’t know. I’m not a doctor, I’m a baseball blogger who probably looks exactly like you think I look minus 80 pounds and without the Snickers bar wrappers. But since I look at data, I can look at that and determine how suspended MLB players perform before and after their 80-game mandatory vacation.
Player
Date
Result
David Rollins
27-Mar-15
Quad-A reliever before and after
Ervin Santana
3-Apr-15
3.2 WAR in 2014, 3.5 WAR in 2016
Jenrry Mejía
11-Apr-15
replacement level SP before, out of baseball afterward
Andrew McKirahan
20-Apr-15
replacement level RP before, out of baseball afterward
Cody Stanley
12-Sep-15
promising 4th round pick, out of baseball
Abraham Almonte
26-Feb-16
replacement level OF before and afterward
Daniel Stumpf
14-Apr-16
reliever prospect before, replacement level afterward
Chris Colabello
22-Apr-16
Good year in 2015, out of baseball afterward
Dee Gordon
29-Apr-16
Never really hit well after 2015 season
Josh Ravin
2-May-16
Quad-A reliever before and after
Alec Asher
16-Jun-16
Quad-A reliever before and after
Starling Marte
18-Apr-17
3.7 WAR in 2016, 4.1 WAR afterward
David Paulino
1-Jul-17
Quad-A pitcher before and after
Jorge Bonifacio
10-Mar-18
replacement level OF before and afterward
Jorge Polanco
18-Mar-18
average MI with good years in 2019 and 2021
Robinson Cano
15-May-18
great hitter cooked afterward, but
suspended in age 35 season
Welington Castillo
24-May-18
below average C cooked afterward,
but suspended in age 31 season
Steven Wright
6-Mar-19
Quad-A pitcher before and after
Frankie Montas
21-Jun-19
1 great season before, 1 great season afterward
Tim Beckham
6-Aug-19
marginal SS before and after
Paul Campbell
3-May-21
Quad-A pitcher before and after
Gregory Santos
29-Jun-21
marginal pitcher before and after
Hector Santiago
29-Jul-21
marginal pitcher before, out of baseball after
Ramón Laureano
7-Aug-21
average OF before, below average afterward
Pedro Severino
5-Apr-22
marginal pitcher before, out of baseball after
J. C. Mejía
17-May-22
Quad-A pitcher before, 2nd suspension in 2023
Fernando Tatís Jr.
12-Aug-22
great hitter before, above average after
Here’s the list of MLB players that have 80-game substance abuse suspensions since 2015, with a brief description of their production before and after the suspensions. The time away, and perhaps the substance going away, doesn’t seem to make any difference in their career trajectories. Most of these players were replacement-level, or below-average, or Quad-A types who perform exactly the same way after the suspension. There are a few exceptions. Ramon Laureano was an average outfielder before his suspension and was more below-average afterward. Cody Stanley was a 4th round pick and looked on his way to a decent career. He was out of baseball afterward. But for the most part, it doesn’t matter.
When there is a drop-off, like with Robinson Cano and Welington Castillo, it’s because they are in their 30s and on the back end of their career. Jurickson is 32 years old. If he’s cooked already, then the suspension reenforces it. But if he was cooked, he probably doesn’t get signed over the winter.
I think he still have a minor step down from what he would have done in 2025 otherwise. The big question is, which Jurickson Profar is the right one, the average bat and poor defense from 2012-2023, or the terrific bat and horrid defense from 2024? If he’s the player he was from 2023 prior, then he’s done and serves as a 30MM Braves lesson learned. If he’s 2024 Jurickson Profar, then he’s fine. So has he made a change in his approach in 2024 or was it the juice? I’ve identified a few things which appear to be sustainable.
Here’s are Profar’s plate discipline numbers from 2024, his career to date, and what the rest of baseball is doing in 2025. As a rule, he’s always been more patient and doesn’t swing as much. He definitely doesn’t chase as much. The o-swing percentage (number of swings outside the strike zone) is much lower (24.9% career vs MLB average 31.3%). He brought that percentage down to 22.4% in 2024. The z-swing percentage (swinging at strikes) ticked higher to 67.0%. The contact numbers are higher than the average hitter as well and those didn’t change.
Just those changes helped him make an enormous leap in production as shown in his swing profile. He added 18 runs to his production by having excellent plate discipline to help him not to chase pitches well off the strike zone. He also picked up another 14 runs by actually killing strikes and adding power. Let’s look at the places he was hunting for pitches.
These blobs of ink show us where the ball is when Jurickson swings before 2024 (left) and during 2024 (right) when he is htting left-handed. This shows that he is looking to attack at strikes that are away but ignore balls inside. He’s swinging at inside balls half as much and swinging at away strikes as high as 25% more.
Here’s the profile from the right side. It shows a similar approach: cut inside ball swings in half while increasing swings at away strikes. It suggests that he changed his hitting stance and is leaning over the plate more. This is a typical plate appearance from a double in 2023.
He strikes this ball well. He’s using a closed stance and reinforces it when the pitch approaches. It looks… wonkedy. That’s not a word outside of my circle but he appears unbalanced here. He’s reaching for the ball more, it appears. This is a typical plate appearance from a double from 2024.
Here you can see Jurickson start with an open stance. He will bring his foot in front and point it slightly to the shortstop side of second base as the pitch is made. This is helping him clear his hips and generate more power. Everything looks much cleaner here and more aligned. This ain’t juice, this is excellent technique. I imagine the Braves hitting approach could break this, but I don’t know that anyone is still listening to Tim Hyers as this point anyway.
These are ZIPS projections for the life of his contract. I see the numbers where they get them, but these feel a bit bearish to me. If his changes to his hitting approach in 2024 continue going forward, he can easily beat these. But even with these, the Braves will get an offensive boost over their current left field residents.