Last things first, the Cubs lost in extra innings, dropping their record in such games to 3-5. On a Saturday morning ahead of another day game, I won’t waste a lot of words on my thoughts on ghost baserunners. Across every team who entered play Friday night at .500 or better, teams were 56-55 in extra innings. So it’s pretty random baseball. Ignoring the Rockies who are basically the worst at everything, NL Central foes St. Louis and Cincinnati have the worst record in such games at 1-5 each. The Angels at 4-0 are the best in baseball. The Rangers are the only team who hasn’t played extras. In fact, no other team has played fewer than three.
That’s everything I’m going to say about extras. Those are the accepted rules for extra innings, they don’t look to be changing imminently. So you have to win with what’s in front of you. The Cubs didn’t do that. It was one of those games that simultaneously feels like an understandable loss and a lost opportunity.
With Paul Skenes starting, despite his poor overall W-L record, you understand taking a loss. He’s always a tough customer and Friday was no different. An overcast, rainy day is not the kind of day you want against a guy who will probably win multiple Cy Youngs in his career. Already this year, we’ll get a duel of old school win loss record and sabermetrics. He’s pretty clearly the best NL pitcher at this point. But, at some point if you don’t win games there are going to be some voters who question the numbers. It goes beyond pitcher wins. With Friday’s team win, the Pirates are just 7-8 when Skenes starts. Twice in 15 starts has he allowed more than two runs. He’s flat out dominated.
A few days ago, I noted that I dipped the Cubs DEFCON down to 4 indicating that I do see some cracks in the façade. I remain fully confident, but I can’t ignore that the Cubs have gotten very homer dependent for the offense over the last couple of weeks. They aren’t stealing quite as many bases, aren’t sustaining rallies the same way and aren’t applying the same pressure.
It’s not hard to understand. They’ve faced a lot of top tier pitching. They’ve seen a lot of pitchers executing. Everything builds in both directions. When starters are more effective and get deeper, you see more leverage relievers. You see less back of the bullpen guys. You see less guys in hero mode trying to gut out innings. The other team has a plethora of options to throw at you, mixing and matching outcomes and strategies. It’s all running against the Cubs right now.
All of that said, the Cubs sit at 5-6 in this 11 straight game situation. They’ll be favored to win the back two games of this stretch. They can still come through with seven wins. But, they are far from a certainty at this point. The sign of a good team? Even when things aren’t ideal, they are still scrapping together, winning when it’s there and stacking game and series wins.
This one felt like one they should have won. Skenes and all, they managed eight hits and three walks, more than the six and three that the Pirates put together. The Pirates clustered theirs better. The Cubs had a couple of key baserunning situations not go their way. The net result was an irritating loss.
Pitch Counts:
Pirates: 160, 39 BF (10 IP)
Cubs: 140, 37 BF (10 IP)
Here you see all of the metrics look favorable for the Cubs. They made the Pirates work harder in this one. They just didn’t end up with anything to show for it. The process was good in this one, but the execution was not. It’s easier said than done, but if you can control the slug for this Cubs team, you really neuter them. This is another one of those rhetorical statements though. Everyone struggles if they can’t get slug.
None of the Pirates pitchers who threw Thursday threw again Friday. Carmen Mlodzinski threw 25 pitches. We might not see him available Saturday. Otherwise, it feels likely the Pirates will have a full compliment of pitchers again Saturday.
Brad Keller and Daniel Palencia threw back-to-back for the Cubs. I have trouble imagining we see either on Saturday. That’s rough. None of the five relievers the Cubs used threw more than 18 pitches. So the Cubs should have plenty of arms available, with just a little worry about top arms being available.
Three Stars:
This has to be Cade Horton for my money. 5⅔ innings, three hits, one walk and no runs. Very strong outing. Exactly what you need when you are lined up against the other team’s best pitcher. Big step in his career development.
Kyle Tucker had a double a walk and scored the only run. That double could have been a real game changer. I liked the send in wet conditions. It didn’t work.
Ian Happ had a single and two walks. He had good at bats all day long.
Game 70, June 13: Pirates 2, Cubs 1 (42-28)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Cade Horton (.286). 5⅔ IP, 21 BF, 3 H, BB, 0 R, 4 K
Hero: Daniel Palencia (.131). IP, 3 BF, BB, K
Sidekick: Ryan Brasier (.085). IP, 3 BF, H, K
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Brad Keller (-.210). IP, 5 BF, H, R, K
Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.173). 0-4, RBI, DP
Kid: Matt Shaw (-.150). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: With a runner on first and no outs in the ninth, Daniel Palencia coaxed a ground ball to third. The Cubs went around the horn, relying on a replay overturn to come up with a huge double play. (.180).
*Pirates Play of the Game: With runners on first and second and no outs in the tenth, Adam Frazier and Ke’Bryan Hayes completed a double steal. (.161)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
0%
Daniel Palencia
(0 votes)
0%
Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(0 votes)
0 votes total
Yesterday’s Winner: Jameson Taillon (128 votes) over PCA (62)
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +23
Jameson Taillon +17
Drew Pomeranz +13
Pete Crow-Armstrong +12
Shōta Imanaga/Miguel Amaya +11
Matt Shaw -7.5
Seiya Suzuki -12.5
Ben Brown -14
Julian Merryweather -15
Dansby Swanson -21.33
Up Next: The third of four games in the series at Wrigley Field Saturday afternoon. Matthew Boyd (5-3, 2.89, 74⅔ IP) starts for the Cubs. Boyd is 3-1 with a 3.05 in his last seven starts (41⅓ IP). Boyd faced the Pirates on April 30 in Pittsburgh. He threw five innings, allows six hits, three walks and two runs. He did not earn a decision.
It’s been a while, but the Cubs finally face a non-first round talent. Mike Burrows (1-1, 5.00, 18 IP) will be making his fifth start and fifth appearance of the year. He was an 11th round pick of the Pirates in 2018. He had just one MLB game in 2024, a relief appearance. He’s topped out at less than 80 pitches in his four starts and it hasn’t been trending in the right direction. His two June starts, though, have seen him throw 9⅔ innings and allow two runs on nine hits and three walks.
This is a lopsided matchup. Hopefully the weather is at least neutral too. I’m probably rooting for neutral. But if the weather is too far one direction or the other, it could nullify some of the advantage. The same way a cold, rainy, overcast day led, at least in part, to Cade Horton going toe to toe with Paul Skenes.