No one would ever confuse me for Tylor Megill’s biggest fan. I have long been a critic of the tall right-hander given his past performance, but I found myself coming around following his strong April showing. However, Megill has come crashing down to earth, and another rough outing has put his rotation spot in jeopardy. With the Mets falling to the Rays 8-4 on a rainy Saturday afternoon in Flushing, in large part due to his ineffectiveness, it’s safe to wonder how much longer Megill has in the rotation, and injuries to other hurlers seem to be the only thing keeping his spot in the start rotation in tact.
Following a roughly 50-minute long rain delay, the Mets took the field on a day that felt more like mid-April than mid-June at Citi Field. Things got off to an inauspicious start, as Megill hit the leadoff hitter Josh Lowe on a pitch that bounced in the dirt before connecting with him. Megill would recover to retire the next three batters, and then the three batters after that for a 1-2-3 second. He met his first real bit of adversity in the third, as Taylor Walls hit a one-out ground-rule double and came around to score on a Josh Lowe single.
Drew Rasmussen entered this game with a 2.22 ERA for the Rays, the eighth-best among all qualified major league starters. He looked tough to start, facing the minimum through the first two innings, but the Mets got to him in the third to knot up the score. That came courtesy of Brett Baty, who connected on a 115.6 mph homer to right to tie the game at one. It was the hardest hit homer by a Met all season, and the first homer surrendered by Rasmussen since May 11. The Mets then jumped ahead later in the inning, as Francisco Lindor doubled with two outs and came home on a Brandon Nimmo single.
The good vibes would not last long, as Megill unraveled in the fourth. After needing just 45 pitches to get through the first three innings, he needed 37 in the fourth and could not escape the inning, entering with a 2-1 lead before exiting with the Mets trailing 6-2. It started immediately, with Junior Caminero hitting a solo home run to lead off the frame. Things only went downhill from there, as Megill plunked Jake Magnum before a Matt Thaiss single put runners on the corners.
After Kameron Misner struck out, Walls bunted in an attempt to bring Magnum home, and Megill fielded the ball but had it slip out of his hand while trying to retire Walls at first. The error led to the go-ahead run and resulted in three of the six runs against Megill being unearned. After a Josh Lowe strikeout, Brandon Lowe singled home a run and Yandy Díaz followed suit with a run-scoring single. Megill’s controll then slipped, as he walked Jonathan Aranda and then threw a wild pitch to bring in the sixth run. A walk to Caminero then ended his afternoon prematurely, giving way to José Castillo, who got out of the inning on one pitch thanks to a brilliant defensive play up the middle from Lindor and Baty.
Tampa Bay added an insurance run in the fifth after the Mets went down quietly in the fourth. Misner led off with a single and reached second after a passed ball was charged to Luis Torrens. Walls then doubled him home to make it 7-2, and it could have been worse tha Torrens not nailed Walls trying to steal third and, after a two-out walk, threw out Josh Lowe trying to swipe second. It continues a trend of Torrens having the best percentage of throwing out runners among any catcher since the start of 2024 with at least 45 steal attempts against him.
The Mets drew two runs closer in the bottom of the inning as Rasmussen was nearing the end of his rope. With two outs in the inning, Ronny Mauricio hit a home run not far from where Baty hit his homer in the third. Lindor then single, reached base on a wild pitch, and came around on Nimmo’s two-out single. The Rays’ righty recovered to retire Juan Soto. Tampa Bay then added their eighth run thanks to a Castillo error and a Díaz triple.
After mustering nothing against Kevin Kelly in the sixth, the Mets mounted a rally in the seventh as they tried to come back. Facing old friend Cole Sulser, Torrens singled with one out, and Lindor singled with two outs to put runners on the corner. The Rays went to Garrett Cleavinger to face Nimmo, and he grounded out to third as the Mets could not score a run.
The Mets put forth another valiant effort in the eighth, but again came up empty-handed. Against Mason Englert, Alonso singled with one out to keep his on base streak alive. Starling Marte then singled with two outs to once again put runners on the corners, but Baty grounded out to end the inning. The Mets had one final shot against Englert in the ninth, but New York went down meekly.
The big story of this game will be Megill’s shaky start. After posting a 1.09 ERA through his first five starts and a 1.74 ERA through the end up April, his ERA has now ballooned to 3.95. The positive is his velocity was strong and he generated nine whiffs of his 30 four seam fastballs, but his command and his inability to record outs when the other team has runners in scoring position put him in a lot of trouble. The Mets have also lost eight of his last 12 starts, and he has just not been the same pitcher as he was in the season’s first month. Sean Manaea has at least a few more rehab starts to go, and Kodai Senga has now landed on the IL which, paired with Paul Blackburn’s ineffectiveness, could buy Megill some time. But come July, Megill’s time in the rotation could be coming to a close if he doesn’t rebound from his recent struggles.
It was also an afternoon of rare occurrences for the Mets, as they dropped back-to-back games for the first time since May 19 and May 20 against the Red Sox. It also also just the second time all season that the Mets dropped back-to-back home games, after they lost the last two games to the Diamondbacks on April 30 and May 1. This is just the second home series that the Mets have dropped this season, though they still boast an impressive 27-9 record at Citi Field this season.
The Mets will look to salvage the series finale on Father’s Day, as Griffin Canning will take the ball opposite Shane Baz.
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Box scores
Win Probability Added
Big Mets winner: Brandon Nimmo, +16.5% WPA
Big Mets loser: Tylor Megill, -51.3% WPA
Mets pitchers: -53.7% WPA
Mets hitters: +3.7% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Brett Baty third inning home run, +12.9% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Junior Caminero fourth inning home run, -13.4% WPA