The New York Yankees (42-27) and Boston Red Sox (36-36) tussle in the Sunday finale of a three-game AL East series. The first pitch from Fenway Park is slated for 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Boston leads 4-1

New York is closing out a six-game road trip with this contest. That voyage has been a mixed bag so far: before dropping two straight games against the rival Red Six at Fenway (losing 2-1 in 10 innings Friday and 4-3 Saturday) , the Yankees had won 3 straight at the Kansas City Royals. The Yanks lost 2 straight at home to these Sox last weekend before starting the road swing, so they have lost 4 gaes in a row to Boston.

The Red Sox have won 4 games in a row and 6 of their last 7 contests. After struggling mightily in 1-run games for much of the season, the Crimson Hose have won 3 straight games on that slim margin.

Yankees at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Brayan Bello

Fried (9-1, 1.84 ERA) is making his 15th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 88 innings.

Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 10-2 win at Kansas City Royals TuesdayCareer vs. Red Sox: 2-0, 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 9 H, 3 BB, 18 K in 2 startsHas allowed 2 ER or less in 13 of 14 startsOwns a 2.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in road starts since 2023

Bello (2-1, 3.96 ERA) is making his 11th start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 52 1/3 innings.

Last outing: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 10-8 loss vs. Tampa Bay Rays MondayCareer vs. Yankees: 3-3, 2.54 ERA (46 IP, 13 ER), 40 H, 16 BB, 36 K in 8 starts

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Yankees at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:52 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Yankees -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Red Sox +155 (bet $100 to win $155)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (-118) | Red Sox +1.5 (-102)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictionsPrediction

Yankees 6, Red Sox 4

The New York offense has faltered, scoring just 6 runs over its last 3 games. In and around that stretch, the Yankees flew from K.C. to Boston and had an odd-hours arrival Friday morning. After a weekend with a Sunday night game against Boston, peg the Yanks as suffering some extra levels of fatigue.

The pitching match-up swings this one to the visitors. Yes, New York has plated just 6 runs over its last 28 innings, but that stretch was preceded by a 5-game span (June 6-11) that saw the Yanks tally 39 runs on the strength of a .904 OPS.

YANKEES (-185) is a solid play, but some bettors may feel comfortable with lesser outlay on the front end.

NEW YORK -1.5 (-118) is a play with solid value. The Yankees have lost 2 straight games on 2 other occurrences over the last 3 weeks. In both previous cases, New York staved off a 3-game streak.

Fried has been excellent in starts after losses, and he owns an 0.94 ERA in day games and has solid numbers across 2 lifetime outings at Fenway.

When looking at starting hurlers and match-ups, its a must to look past their career ERA against a franchise. That is not always indicative of their performance history against a current collection of batters. Bello vs. New York is such an example. His 2.54 ERA vs. the Yanks is belied by current Yankee bats owning an aggregate .925 OPS against him (per ESPN).

New York has underplayed its 5.36 RPG and 3.84 RPG allowed. Look for a bounce-back with a cushion on Sunday.

Before the Under prevailed the last 2 nights, the Over had been 6-1-1 over the previous 8 series matchups at Fenway Park.

Boston does have an effective attack against southpaws. Its .795 OPS against port-siders ranks second in the league. Mix in some fade to both starters and a contest coming on the heels of some heavier usage on the back ends of both bullpens. And figure the Yanks as getting past their travel weariness

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-115).

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