The Weekly Nutshell:
The first week without Pablo López and Zebby Matthews pushed the rotation from concern to full-blown crisis. What had been Minnesota’s greatest strength is now a staggering weakness. Both the replacements and holdovers struggled to keep the Twins competitive in a stretch where they were blasted twice at home by a slumping Texas lineup, then swept by a Houston team that looked superior in every phase.

Even when the starters began settling in late in the week, the offense and bullpen took turns unraveling — evoking that earlier portion of the season when nothing could go right. We’ve learned this team can turn things around quickly, so there’s no call for despair. But the return to very bad baseball, paired with a steady drain of top-end talent due to injury, is unsettling.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/9 through Sun, 6/15
***
Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 36-35)
Run Differential Last Week: -30 (Overall: +7)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.0 GB) 

Last Week’s Game Results:

Game 66 | TEX 16, MIN 4: Soft Underbelly of Pitching Staff Sliced Open

Woods Richardson: 4.2 IP, 7 R (6 ER)

Game 67 | MIN 6, TEX 2: Festa Bounces Back, Buxton Comes Up Big

Game 68 | TEX 16. MIN 3 : Ober Melts Down, Twins Again Battered by Bad Offense

Ober: 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 BB, 4 HR

Game 69 | HOU 10, MIN 3: Astros Tee Off on Paddack in Another Blowout Loss

Paddack: 4 IP, 12 H, 8 ER, 1 K

Game 70 | HOU 3, MIN 2: Houston Dominates on Mound, Walks Off Durán in Ninth

Game 71 | HOU 2, MIN 1: Lineup Remains Dormant, SWR’s Strong Start Wasted

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NEWS & NOTES

In a blowout loss to open the week, Jorge Alcalá’s inability to competently soak up a couple meaningless innings proved to be the final straw. Pitching with the Twins already in a deep hole, Alcalá could do nothing to slow down the Rangers offense, yielding six runs (five earned) on five hits and a walk, while somehow inducing just one swinging strike on 40 pitches. One of the worst relief outings we’ve seen all year.

The Twins had seen enough. They were ready to cut the right-hander loose to make room for bullpen reinforcements, but — for the same reason Alcalá hung around as long as he did with the Twins — a buyer came calling, hoping to take a flier on the reliever’s undeniable talent. Boston skipped the waiver line by trading to Minnesota an A-ball lotto ticket in 21-year-old infielder Andy Lugo.

Desperate for bullpen depth, the Twins snagged left-hander Joey Wentz off waivers following his recent DFA by the Pirates. His multi-inning length capability is handy given the way things have been going. López went to the 60-day IL to make room on the 40-man roster for Wentz, whose presence may well be temporary. He’s pitched just once so far for the Twins, and did not look impressive at all, allowing two runs on two hits and three walks in one inning of work.

Vibes were already pretty bleak by the ninth inning of Friday night’s game, with Minnesota playing out the string on its third crushing defeat in four days’ time, but they managed to take another turn for the worse when Royce Lewis came up limping as he ran out a base hit in a lost cause. It’s the left hamstring, again.

Lewis landed back on the injured list, although this strain was deemed “mild” and he’s expected to miss less time than the previous injury, which cost him the first 34 games of the season. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. was recalled to take over the vacated roster spot.

It is noteworthy that the Twins did NOT opt to go with José Miranda in what would have been a straightforward swap of right-handed hitting third basemen. That feels like a damning indicator, given how badly the lineup could use a boost. But unfortunately, Miranda has done nothing in Triple-A to warrant a call-up. He showed signs of awakening with homers in back-to-back games at the start of June, but has since gone 6-for-44 with one double, sinking his OPS to around the .600 mark. Keirsey Jr. can’t hit but at least the team is confident he can provide value in other ways. That’s a big limitation standing in the way of Miranda, Edouard Julien and Mickey Gasper. 

As a final note, Michael Tonkin’s rehab stint ended and the Twins weren’t ready to activate him, so he accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A. As long as he can stay on the mound with a somewhat functional shoulder, he will undoubtedly be called upon soon enough.

HIGHLIGHTS

It was an ugly week for the Twins. Byron Buxton is the biggest reason why it wasn’t uglier. He put on a show in their lone victory on Tuesday night at Target Field, saving two runs with a dazzling catch in center field and then launching the longest home-run of his career, a go-ahead three-run blast that traveled 479 feet to center and put the Twins ahead for good. Buxton completely flipped the script on a game that was (familiarly) heading the wrong direction. He also doubled twice and stole two bases on the week.

Buxton has been far-and-away the Twins’ best player this season. His 2.3 fWAR lead the team by a wide margin (no one else has more than 1.6), and now that he’s adding patience into his offensive repertoire he’s grown into even more of a well-rounded threat. Beyond his impact in the box score, Buxton has simply been a joy to watch, flying around the field and destroying baseballs with an athletic skill set that few in the world can match.

All of this added to the malaise on Saturday when Buxton was forced to exit a close game after being hit in the elbow by a pitch. Losing him on top of López and Lewis would be almost too much to take, but it does sound like he’ll be okay. Buxton was in the original lineup on Sunday before being scratched with lingering pain – still, word is that he’s structurally okay and should hopefully be back in the coming week.

Willi Castro has fully shaken off a slow start and risen to join Buxton has one of the team’s most valuable bats. His OPS dropped to .600 on May 14th with an 0-fer in Baltimore, but in the month since then Castro has slashed .368/.444/.655 with six homers in 26 games. He was a rare spark plug for the offense this past week, notching 10 hits in 23 ABs and driving in four. The utilityman has been playing outfield almost exclusively of late – and looking pretty rough out there, to be honest – but you wonder if that will change with Lewis going down and being replaced by Keirsey Jr.

The Twins are without three infield bats they were counting on in Lewis, Miranda and Julien, so the need for Brooks Lee to show some life offensively is greater than ever. Thankfully he’s making his case that he is up to the task. He had an exceptional week at the plate, extending his hitting streak to 15 games while collecting eight hits in 19 at-bats, including a pair of home runs to Houston’s Crawford Boxes over the weekend. The emergence of a little pop is a welcome sight from Lee, who has struck out 17 times with only one walk in his past 20 games.

It remains difficult to feel much conviction in his offensive outlook until he can find some semblance of discipline at the dish, but right now Lee’s swinging a hot stick, pushing his OPS up over .700, and the Twins will take that for sure.

LOWLIGHTS

Simeon Woods Richardson got crushed in his return to the rotation on Tuesday, coughing up six earned runs in 4 â…” innings against a Rangers offense that ranked as the league’s worst coming in. It set the tone for a lackluster week on the pitching front. 

On Thursday, Bailey Ober was obliterated by that same Texas team in an outing that set off major alarm bells. His velocity continued to lag, his control uncharacteristically went totally amiss, and hitters were crushing everything he got into the zone. Ober has allowed 12 earned runs in 11 â…” innings in June, inflating his ERA from 3.48 to 4.40 in two starts.

Ober and the Twins continue to insist he’s not injured, although they acknowledge he’s been dealing with an issue in his left hip along with faulty mechanics. “I think I’ll be fine. I mean, obviously if I keep pitching like this, then probably not,” Ober told reporters after his second straight ugly outing. 

Adding to the rotation misery, Chris Paddack took a pummeling to kick off the Houston series, allowing nine runs (eight earned) on 12 hits in four innings of work. Paddack tallied only one strikeout, his lowest total of the season, and gave up more runs than his previous six starts combined. You hope it’s merely a hiccup because Paddack has gone from a luxury back-end starter to a veteran linchpin in this ravaged corps.

In six games last week, Twins pitchers allowed 49 runs on 63 hits and 11 homers with an ugly 43-to-24 K/BB ratio. Brutal stuff all around. The rotation was bad and the bullpen wasn’t a whole lot better. They couldn’t keep the lopsided losses remotely close and, when actually asked to hold down some tight late-game situations in Houston, Jhoan Durán and Cole Sands came up short in walk-off losses.

A staff that previously was giving the Twins almost no chance to lose is now too often giving them no chance to win. Potentially this is just a blip on the radar, and a bit of regression catching up following a charmed run that included three straight shutouts in May, but if guys like Ober and Paddack can’t flush their latest outings and get back on track, it’s going to be tough sledding ahead.

Even if the pitchers do rediscover their groove, the Twins will be going nowhere if the offense can’t find some life. Production from Buxton and Castro hasn’t been enough to elevate this short-circuiting unit, which has averaged just 3.6 runs in their last 10 games while the team has gone 2-8. 

Understandably, you’re going to get streakiness from guys like Ryan Jeffers (2-for-16 last week), Matt Wallner (2-for-21) and Trevor Larnach (1-for-9). It’s hard when those slumps seem to so frequently come in unison. The Kody Clemens cooldown (0-for-7 last week, 3-for-28 in June) shouldn’t be a huge surprise, nor should the ongoing ineffectiveness of Jonah Bride, who’s gone hitless in 24 straight at-bats and is now getting more run as a pitcher than as a hitter. For better or worse, the Twins figure to find themselves needing to lean on those two more with Lewis going down.

Week after week, though, it’s Carlos Correa who stands out as Minnesota’s most glaring and inexcusable underperformer,. Pitchers are still showing no fear of his diminished bat whatsoever, peppering the strike zone with minimal blowback. Correa went 6-for-25 last week with a couple of doubles, striking out six times with zero walks. He let the team down in several key moments and is now slugging .283 in the month of June.

We’re approaching the halfway point of the season and Correa still hasn’t shown any real propensity to differentiate himself from the sub-par form we saw in 2023. If he can’t lift this team then they’re simply not going to rise up, and his contract is going to increasingly look like a debilitating millstone.

TRENDING STORYLINE

The big challenge for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins right now: eating through midsummer innings without running their bullpen into the ground. This past week saw only two of six starts last into the sixth inning, and that’s probably going to be standard going forward in the absence of López. Minnesota’s top bullpen arms are almost exclusively one-inning guys and the lower end of the unit is a rotating door of marginal pitchers that can’t be trusted in a meaningful spot.

Justin Topa has been exclusively reserved for low-leverage situations. Baldelli showed no real inclination to use Travis Adams while he was here. He also hasn’t shown much faith in Wentz, and that appears justified based on what little we’ve seen. Tonkin could return soon, but has been hit hard during his rehab in Triple-A. Is he an answer to anything?

The Twins have got to find a way to get through these games and relieve some pressure on their best relievers. It would be nice if game circumstances gave them more opportunities to turn to those mop-up types like Topa and Wentz, but what we’ve come to see is that the script for this Twins team is either losing huge or winning close. Right now it’s hard to envision a sustained run of success for Minnesota that doesn’t burn out all of their best relief arms — barring a run-scoring surge from an offense that’s scored more than six runs just three times in the past 25 games, with two of those coming in the extremely favorable environment of West Sacramento. Unless and until Correa wakes up, I’m not feeling the most optimistic in that regard.

LOOKING AHEAD

It’s a week of interleague ball, with the Twins lined up to face a pair of NL Central opponents. First they’ll head to Cincinnati for three games against the Reds, and then it’s back to Target Field for a weekend series against the Brewers. The Twins are slated to see left-handed starters in three of their first four games, making it all the more interesting that they opted for Keirsey over Miranda as Lewis’s roster replacement. 

TUESDAY, JUNE 17: TWINS @ REDS — RHP David Festa v. LHP Andrew Abbott
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 18: TWINS @ REDS — RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Nick Lodolo
THURSDAY, JUNE 19: TWINS @ REDS — RHP Chris Paddack v. RHP Nick Martinez
FRIDAY, JUNE 20: BREWERS @ TWINS — LHP Jose Quintana v. RHP Joe Ryan
SATURDAY, JUNE 21: BREWERS @ TWINS — RHP Quinn Priester v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
SUNDAY, JUNE 22: BREWERS @ TWINS — RHP Chad Patrick v. RHP David Festa