The calendar has turned to mid-June, and as the summer months heat up, so does speculation about what the Minnesota Twins will do at this year’s trade deadline. With the All-Star break just a month away and the deadline looming not far behind, the next five weeks could very well determine whether the front office decides to buy, sell, or simply stand pat.
At the moment, the Twins sit in one of the more precarious positions in baseball. Entering play on Friday, Minnesota is tied for the final AL Wild Card spot and holds a razor-thin half-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. The Wild Card race is brutally crowded, thanks to MLB’s expanded postseason format with three Wild Card teams per league. As many as five teams trail the Twins by fewer than four games in the standings. That logjam is a testament to the current landscape of the American League, a league lacking dominant teams and filled with deeply flawed contenders hovering around the .500 mark.
This leaves the Twins at a critical crossroads. Are they legitimate buyers who can justify parting with young talent to improve a roster with clear holes? Or are they better suited to capitalize on the market’s demand by selling some expiring or underperforming assets? Maybe the best course of action is to thread the needle and do little more than some small retooling?
What happens over the next five weeks will answer those questions.
A Schedule That Will Shape the Future
Minnesota’s performance in the next 30 games will likely swing the decision. The upcoming schedule is anything but forgiving. The Twins will play the Astros (away), Reds (away), Brewers (home), Mariners (home), Tigers (away), and Marlins (away) before the All-Star break. They’ll then close the first half with a critical nine-game homestand against the Rays, Cubs, and Pirates.
This is a stretch where the club must prove its legitimacy. The Astros, Brewers, and Mariners remain postseason contenders despite their flaws. The Reds and Marlins are all talented but inconsistent dangerous teams if the Twins overlook them. Detroit looms as a monster in the AL Central and the Twins can’t avoid dropping games in the division.
If Minnesota can post a winning record over this run, especially in AL contests, they could solidify themselves as buyers. But if they stumble? The argument to sell grows louder, especially as the rotation’s injuries mount.
Pitching Depth Stretched Thin
The state of the pitching staff might be the ultimate determinant of the club’s trade deadline plans. With Pablo López and Zebby Matthews both sidelined, likely until after this critical stretch, the Twins are relying heavily on young arms. David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson are filling important rotation spots, but expecting them to shoulder the load of a postseason push is risky.
Meanwhile, Bailey Ober has been battling a hip issue that’s impacted his mechanics, and the rotation’s reliability from top to bottom is in question. Even if Ober returns to form, is this group ready to hold down playoff-caliber lineups for another 100 games and a possible October run? The Twins may need to add a starter if they remain in contention, but with so many teams still in the race, pitching prices figure to be steep. Is this roster worth that kind of investment?
“It’s still June and there is a long way to go,” Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said. “We spent a lot of the year talking about how we feel really good about our pitching depth. The whole point of pitching depth is at some point you’ll actually end up needing it. Obviously, that’s now going to get tested over this next stretch.”
A Flawed Team Beyond the Streak
Minnesota’s May winning streak saved its season, pushing the club back into playoff position after a rocky start. But outside that hot run, the Twins have looked every bit like a sub-.500 team. They have struggled to string together consistent offense, seeing defensive lapses at times, and having bullpen hiccups that could cost them games against better opponents.
This inconsistency makes their path murky. Are they truly contenders hiding behind early-season injuries and bad luck? Or are they a middle-tier team that benefited from a hot streak and will settle back into mediocrity?
Buy, Sell, or Stand Pat?
If the Twins surge during this stretch and remain atop the Wild Card hunt or even climb above Detroit in the Central (insert laugh-track here), expect Derek Falvey to explore the market for affordable pitching or a bat to complement the offense. But if Minnesota stumbles and slips back in the standings, the front office could pivot to sell mode. The Twins aren’t loaded with expiring contracts, but players like Harrison Bader and Willi Castro could have market value. Moving such pieces would be a soft sell by keeping the core intact while looking to 2026 and beyond.
The most likely scenario might be standing pat or minor tinkering by trying to ride out the season with internal improvements. Last season, the Twins were in contention and only made a minor move to add reliever Trevor Richards. He didn’t even stick on the roster until the end of the season. The AL’s parity means an 85-win team could easily claim a playoff spot. Does it make sense to mortgage the future for a marginal upgrade in such a landscape?
Right now, the Twins are neither buyers nor sellers. But the next five weeks serve as one of the most important stretches of the season and it will force them to pick a lane. A hot run could justify a smart, aggressive push for October. A slide could make selling the obvious call. And if they hover near .500? Twins fans may see a quiet deadline and another gamble that the existing roster is enough.
Whatever path they choose, it will be shaped by the wins and losses to come between now and the All-Star break. Stay tuned because this story is far from over.