How do the Padres stay in contention?

The San Diego Padres are currently in third place in the NL West, 5 games back of the Dodgers with a 39-33 record. They have been struggling offensively since their fast start got them off to a 14-3 record. Over the past month the team has a .227 batting average, last in MLB. Their OBP, SLG and OPS are all last in baseball. It is no wonder that they have slid from only a half game behind the Dodgers to third place and sinking fast.

Offense

If you look at the lineup, there are four hitters that carry an average above .250 and they are all at the top four positions. From there down the production tapers off significantly, although Jake Cronenworth carries an OPS of .750 for the season (.626 for the last month). That improves to five hitters when Jackson Merrill is in the lineup (.304 average and .823 OPS for season).

Over the last month of the season, only Manny Machado (.944) and Gavin Sheets (.816) have an OPS over .700.

The lack of production with runners in scoring position has been noted on many occasions and the Padres currently stand 26th in baseball with a .245 average. They are 28th in slugging with RISP at .333.

They have glaring offensive holes in left field and the catching position (.216 and .214 averages, respectively). The shortstop position is mostly manned by Xander Bogaerts with Jose Iglesias relieving him when needed. The shortstop position has a .227 average. Due to the struggles at the beginning of the season, the DH position has a .209 average for the season although Sheets has produced well as of late.

Pitching

Turning the attention to the pitching staff, it is not as bad a situation. Although the pitchers are not in the top rankings in any category, they have a team ERA of 3.60 and rank 21st in MLB. The starters come in at 15th with a 3.87 ERA and the bullpen at 6th with a 3.27 ERA. The team ERA over the past month is 3.94 and ranks 16th in baseball. Bullpen overuse as a result of starting pitching floundering early in games has moved the bullpen from the best in baseball to start the year.

Individually, Nick Pivetta leads the staff with 3.40 ERA and has eight quality starts (6 innings or more with 3 earned runs or less). Jason Adam leads the relievers with a 1.50 ERA in 36 innings pitched.

Improvements needed

All of this leads to a couple conclusions. There must be an upgrade offensively, and the players currently on the roster not batting in the first four to five slots need to improve their production. Otherwise, the season is in serious jeopardy in regards to playoff contention.

Although adding another starter needs to happen, there is a chance that can occur from within. Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek have contributed quality innings and there is still the hope that Michael King and/or Yu Darvish can contribute. There is also a good chance Matt Waldron can contribute going forward. He has had three good starts in El Paso and looks ready, if needed.

But there is nothing in the minor leagues that can help offensively. Luis Campusano has been a bust times three. Brandon Lockridge and Bryce Johnson are not major league level offensively and are defensive replacements, at best. Jason Heyward is completing his rehab in the minors and still isn’t hitting. None of the Padres prospects are ready to help out this season.

Although Martin Maldonado and Elias Diaz represent a quality catching tandem, they are woefully underproductive at the plate and are frequently an automatic out. Diaz strikes out once every 3.46 at bats and Maldonado once every 2.74 at bats.

General Manager A.J. Preller has a big task ahead of him. The trade deadline is July 31. It is not clear that the Padres have that long to improve the team. They could be completely out of contention by then if things don’t change soon.

The offense needs upgrading and fast. Getting Jackson Merrill back will help a bit but their struggles won’t go away just because he lengthens the lineup a little. The bottom four have to produce more and the best way to do that is to eliminate the two black holes that currently exist.

It is probably not realistic to think that Bogaerts is anyone other than who we have seen this year so far. If that assessment is wrong, I will be the first to rejoice. But he has swung at bad pitches frequently, missed pitches down the middle of the plate, hit into double plays in key situations and generally not produced when needed. His three home runs are tied with Maldonado, who plays half time. His OPS is .615, basically tied with Elias Diaz.

Manager Mike Shildt is relentlessly positive and would never criticize his players publicly. Positive reinforcement and support are his hallmarks. But Shildt and the rest of the leadership team are not stupid, they know that change must be made. Let’s hope it comes soon enough to save the season.

This was written prior to tonight’s loss.

How do the Padres stay in contention?

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