Nationals Early, Astros Late (June 19)

Thursday brings several waves of games, culminating with a five-game featured slate locking at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo has a variety of slates, so be cognizant of their different start times. As always, the best way to find top MLB DFS picks is via Stokastic’s industry-leading tools and MLB DFS projections to figure out how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and build strong daily fantasy baseball lineups top to bottom. The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool likes the Houston Astros in West Sacramento against Jacob Lopez, and the Washington Nationals profile well against Chase Dollander, who is bringing Coors Field to the Beltway. Christopher Sanchez is the frontline starter to target on the featured slate, with Carlos Rodon and Tarik Skubal the bucks deluxe options for the afternoon action.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 19

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool likes LHP Cristopher Sanchez tonight in Miami. In his 14 starts this season, the 28-year-old has a high of four earned runs, with 11 of his outings resulting in two or fewer. He has eight quality starts, which is also helpful on FanDuel since the blue site grants a bonus for attaining that milestone.

Miami has a 91 wRC+ against lefties this season, which is in the middle of the league, even though the advanced metric indicates that the team is creating runs 9% less efficiently than league average. The team is sorely lacking power against southpaws, recording a .121 ISO. The Marlins do limit strikeouts with a 20.9% rate this season, and the projected lineup is even better at an 18.2% rate since the start of last year.

The current Miami roster has only nine combined at-bats against Sanchez, so the lefty will at least have surprise on his side this evening the first time through the order. The Marlins will counter with a nearly full right-handed lineup, though the biggest threats are rookies Agustin Ramirez, Eric Wagaman and Rule 5 acquisition Dane Myers, who has barely one year of service time.

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool likes the Dodgers in Los Angeles wrapping up a three-game set against the San Diego Padres. On the mound for the Friars is rookie RHP Ryan Bergert, who is a marginal prospect that is one of the better arms in the San Diego system, though the sixth-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft is not on any industry top-100 lists.

He has survived in his three starts, getting a few looks as a reliever. The 14 strikeouts have been solid; however, the eight walks in 15.1 innings are concerning, particularly against a loaded lineup like that of Los Angeles.

In West Sacramento, the game-time temperatures are going to be a little cooler than they have for the last two days, though still in the mid-70s. Houston piled up a hefty 24 runs in the last two games, and the A’s bullpen is one of the most utilized in the league. This unit has a 6.13 ERA this season and an 11.6% walk rate, both of which are the worst in MLB. Most other standard and advanced metrics are also in the bottom 5, and the team is not afraid to turn to position players for the last inning or two when getting curb-stomped.

On the mound tonight, it will be LHP Jacob Lopez for the hometown nine, which bodes well for the Astros, who have a lofty 139 wRC+ and a .229 ISO against southpaws, even without Yordan Alvarez. San Francisco chose Lopez in the 26th round of the 2018 MLB Draft. He was traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline in 2019, missing 2020 due to the cancelation of the MiLB season, and he also did not pitch in 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Last December, the Rays sent him to the Athletics, along with Jeffrey Springs, for a package centered around Joe Boyle, a hard-throwing right-hander who lacks command and control but has flashed serious strikeout stuff.

Back to Lopez, he has put up to solid starts with one unearned run and three walks across 10 innings, accompanied by 14 strikeouts. However, in the two preceding tilts, he allowed 12 runs in just half a dozen innings, with seven of the “Ernies” coming in Toronto against a very mediocre Blue Jays squad.

Cam Smith continues to impress for Houston, providing some salary relief for stacking purposes. The foundational plays are Jose Altuve, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Pena and catcher Yainer Diaz. Christian Walker has struggled against southpaws over the last season-plus, but the former Arizona first baseman used to mash in opposite-handed situations. Jake Meyers enters the picture on the late slate, providing differentiation and additional salary relief.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:

Early Slate Primary Target: Washington Nationals

Nationals vs. Rockies – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chase Dollander
DK Top Stack %: 10.1%
FD Top Stack %: 10.4%

There are afternoon showers in the forecast, which is typical for the DC Metro area this time of year. It looks like the rain should hold off until after the game, though with the heavy humidity, that can be hard to predict with complete accuracy. Similar to the Yankees and Angels, this is the last time these two teams will meet. The game should start, but if one team is ahead after six innings and weather is an issue, we could see an officially shortened game, particularly since neither team is going to be in the race for the postseason.

It is crazy to see the Nationals with a five-plus implied run line, though the team does set up well against right-handed pitchers. Dollander is the top prospect for the Rockies, and he is also a top-20 mention across most industry lists. His projected full-time arrival is for next year, but it is likely he will finish out the season with Colorado unless he needs a confidence-booster assignment back in the minors after the All-Star Break.

The 23-year-old has reasonable strikeout stuff, though walks have been challenging this season. He also has allowed above-average power on the road, but we are looking at a slim 30-inning sample size.

CJ Abrams was an All-Star last year, and it looks like outfielder James Wood is on a similar path this season, though it will be tougher at his position. This duo was part of the Juan Soto deal (which also included LHP MacKenzie Gore and outfielder Robert Hassell III), which has helped rapidly restart the Nationals rebuild.

Luis Garcia has been a solid contributor when he has the platoon advantage, and he should be backed up by veterans Nathaniel Lowe and switch-hitter Josh Bell. DraftKings did bump the salary for Abrams and Wood to Coors Field levels, though there are enough cheapies on the early slate that rostering a full stack of Nats with top pitching is not particularly daunting.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Ryan Bergert under 3.5 total strikeouts. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

Bergert is making his fourth MLB start, and he projects for a tick over three strikeouts against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. In his last two starts, he had eight and four strikeouts in Arizona and Milwaukee, though most season-long projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc.) have him with around seven strikeouts per nine innings, even giving him credit as a reliever.

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