Even though the series loss to the Red Sox left a sour taste at the end of the homestand, the sweep of the Guardians last weekend meant that the Mariners stayed right in the thick of the crowded AL Wild Card race. Their playoff odds have been holding steady around 50% for the past couple of weeks, befitting their spot alongside eight other teams vying for three playoff spots. The rotation looks healthy again and Luke Raley is back to give the lineup a jolt of energy. Call me optimistic, but things might be looking up in the near future. First, the M’s will have to overcome a pretty significant challenge in the form of a weekend series in Chicago — not against the hapless White Sox but against the Cubs, the best team in the National League.
At a Glance
Mariners
Cubs
Mariners
Cubs
Game 1
Friday, June 20 | 11:20 am
RHP George Kirby
LHP Matthew Boyd
46%
54%
Game 2
Saturday, June 21 | 11:20 am
RHP Emerson Hancock
RHP Cade Horton
42%
58%
Game 3
Sunday, June 22 | 11:20 am
RHP Logan Gilbert
RHP Colin Rea
54%
46%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
Cubs
Mariners
Edge
Overview
Cubs
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
115 (2nd in NL)
110 (2nd in AL)
Cubs
Fielding (OAA)
13 (4th)
-9 (11th)
Cubs
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
106 (11th)
103 (8th)
Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)
92 (3rd)
104 (13th)
Cubs
The last time the Cubs won their division was back in 2020 when Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Báez still formed the core of their roster. Chicago moved on quickly from that trio, despite their legendary status, and embarked on a very quick reset of their roster. They made a few key free agent signings during their down years, bringing in Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga in successive offseasons. Recognizing an opportunity to push past their middling division rivals, Chicago swung a huge trade for Kyle Tucker this offseason. Everything has worked out according to plan so far: the Cubs have one of the best lineups in baseball and they’re leading their division by 5.5 games with the best record in the National League.
Cubs Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Ian Happ
LF
S
306
22.2%
12.4%
0.144
110
Kyle Tucker
RF
L
325
14.5%
15.1%
0.228
150
Seiya Suzuki
DH
R
311
27.0%
8.0%
0.270
132
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CF
L
307
24.1%
4.6%
0.288
140
Dansby Swanson
SS
R
310
27.1%
7.1%
0.191
103
Michael Busch
1B
L
259
22.4%
11.2%
0.231
141
Carson Kelly
C
R
178
16.9%
14.0%
0.219
130
Nico Hoerner
2B
R
291
7.2%
5.2%
0.070
97
Matt Shaw
3B
R
167
21.6%
9.0%
0.099
80
Tucker is obviously the centerpiece of the Cubs lineup. Nothing’s really changed from his time with the Astros; he hits the ball hard, takes more walks than strikeouts, and is more than fine in right field. Suzuki has been the main beneficiary of Tucker’s on-base skills; he’s third in the majors in RBIs and has continued to impress during his fourth season in the US. The biggest surprise has been the breakout of Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’s always been an elite defender in center field and used his speed very well on the basepaths, but all of a sudden he’s now slugging .558. That’s the highest his slug has ever been as a professional at any level, majors or minors. With five plus plus tools now, he’s unsurprisingly leading the National League in fWAR.
Probable Pitchers
David Banks-Imagn Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Matthew Boyd
80.2
22.3%
5.8%
8.8%
36.4%
2.79
3.60
George Kirby
25.2
27.3%
6.4%
20.8%
43.7%
5.96
4.31
LHP Matthew Boyd
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
51.3%
95.6
92
54
108
0.400
Changeup
11.4%
87.8
88
Curveball
13.5%
83.6
98
Sweeper
21.6%
83.8
112
119
87
0.274
Matthew Boyd overcame another significant elbow injury to make eight fantastic starts for the Guardians late last season. Altogether, he’s made just 74 appearances in total over the last six seasons, but he appears to be fully healthy now. With so many injured pitchers, Boyd has become the de facto ace of the Cubs rotation. His fastball velocity is the highest it’s ever been and his slider and changeup are still the potent weapons that fueled his breakout with the Tigers all those years ago. He’s throwing in the zone more often than ever before — perhaps the additional velocity is giving him a boost of confidence — which has led to the lowest walk rate of his career.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Cade Horton
36.1
19.0%
5.2%
10.0%
46.4%
3.47
3.73
Emerson Hancock
62.1
17.2%
8.0%
14.9%
43.5%
4.48
4.81
RHP Cade Horton
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
46.8%
93.1
87
73
96
0.338
Sinker
3.3%
91.6
Changeup
23.5%
79.1
94
100
145
0.272
Curveball
10.0%
74.1
109
53
85
0.276
Slider
16.4%
81.6
113
104
94
0.284
Cade Horton entered the season as the Cubs top pitching prospect and made his big league debut in early May. A shoulder injury that cut his 2024 season short raised a bunch of questions about Horton’s readiness for the majors, but the Cubs called him up once the injury situation in their rotation spiraled out of control. His sweeper and changeup are easily his best pitches and he uses both to attack both lefties and righties. His fastball is merely average though it does have a unique cutter-esque shape to it — similar to Justin Steele’s cut four-seamer — though that hasn’t stopped opposing batters from teeing off on it when they see it.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Colin Rea
68
18.2%
6.3%
10.8%
37.6%
3.84
4.14
Logan Gilbert
35.1
39.7%
5.1%
17.4%
48.6%
2.55
2.16
RHP Colin Rea
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
46.7%
93.7
88
69
120
0.366
Sinker
6.8%
93.4
97
Cutter
9.7%
87.8
91
82
159
0.325
Splitter
9.6%
87.2
94
88
139
0.450
Curveball
9.8%
80.3
100
88
117
0.300
Slider
9.1%
84.3
115
122
81
0.274
Sweeper
8.3%
81.9
115
After serving as an unremarkable innings-eating back-end starter for the Brewers the last two years, Colin Rea was thrust into that same role for the Cubs after Justin Steele went down with his elbow injury in mid-April. He’s gained more than a mile per hour on his four-seam fastball and is now throwing that pitch nearly half the time. It’s a decent heater, and the velocity bump certainly helps, but his pitch mix is six pitches deep and it seems like he’d have a bit more success if he mixed it up a bit. He throws all five of his other pitches essentially 10% of the time each but his splitter and slider are the standouts.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Astros
43-32
0.573
—
W-L-W-W-L
Mariners
37-36
0.507
5.0
W-W-L-W-L
Angels
36-38
0.486
6.5
L-W-W-W-L
Rangers
36-39
0.480
7.0
W-W-L-L-L
Athletics
31-46
0.403
13.0
W-W-L-L-W
AL Wild Card Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Rays
41-34
0.547
+2.5
W-W-L-W-L
Blue Jays
40-34
0.541
+2.0
L-L-W-W-L
Red Sox
39-37
0.513
—
W-W-W-L-W
Mariners
37-36
0.507
0.5
W-W-L-W-L
Guardians
37-36
0.507
0.5
L-L-W-W-L
Twins
37-37
0.500
1.0
L-L-L-L-W
The Astros and Athletics split a hard fought four-game series this week — both of the A’s victories came on walk-off home runs from Nick Kurtz. The Astros will travel to Anaheim this weekend to face the suddenly very tough Angels. Speaking of the Halos, they were one win away from sweeping the Yankees in four games this week. The Rangers fell back down the standings after being swept by the Royals; they’ll head to Pittsburgh this weekend, looking to get back on track.
In the Wild Card race this weekend:
the Rays host the Tigers
the Blue Jays host the White Sox
the Red Sox travel to San Francisco
the Guardians travel to Sacramento
the Twins host the Brewers