The New York Mets (45-31) and the Philadelphia Phillies (46-30) play the middle contest of a 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-1

The Phillies pounded the Mets 10-2 in Friday’s series opener as heavy favorites (-185) as the Over (9) cashed, getting some revenge after New York posted a 3-game series sweep at Citi Field April 21-23 in the first meetings of the 2025 season.

Tied 2-2 heading into the bottom of the seventh Friday night, the Phillies erupted for 6 runs, then tacked on 2 more in the eighth. OF Nick Castellanos finished 3-for-5 with 3 runs scored and 3 RBIs, including a 2-run HR in the eighth. OF Brandon Marsh ended up 3-for-4 with a double and a solo homer from the ninth spot of the order.

The Mets didn’t have a ton of success at the plate Friday, but 2B Jeff McNeill was a bright spot with a solo homer, while 1B Pete Alonso also launched a solo shot, his 18th homer of the season.

New York has lost a season-high 7 straight, with the Over hitting in 5 of those games. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has won 3 in a row and 8 of 9 since June 11.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

RHP Griffin Canning vs. RHP Mick Abel

Canning (6-3, 3.80 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 68 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 9-0 home setback vs. Tampa Bay Rays last Sunday2025 road stats: 4-1, 2.51 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 6 starts2025 vs. Phillies: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 5-1 home victory April 22Career vs. Phillies: 1-0, 4.50 ERA (10 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 6 BB, 6 K in 2 starts

Abel (2-0, 2.21 ERA) makes his fifth start. The rookie has allowed 17 hits and 4 walks with 17 K’s in 20 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 5-2 road victory vs. Miami Marlins June 162025 home stats: 1-0, 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 11 H, 3 BB, 12 K, 3 solo HR in 2 startsHas never faced Mets

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Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+155) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -118 | U: -102)Mets at Phillies picks and predictionsPrediction

Phillies 5, Mets 3

The PHILLIES (-120) are a strong play against the skidding Mets behind the rookie Abel.

The Mets have struggled on the road this season, posting an 18-21 record and currently enduring an ugly 7-game losing streak. Their offense has gone silent during the skid, scoring just 16 runs total — an average of 2.3 runs per game (RPG). Meanwhile, the pitching staff has allowed at least 5 runs in each loss, surrendering an average of 7.3 RPG, including 10 in Friday’s outing — the first time the Mets have allowed double digits this season.

The Phillies +1.5 (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, which is way too much risk for not enough reward if you need insurance for some reason. The Mets are ice-cold right now, so if you like Philadelphia, just bet it straight up.

PASS.

UNDER 9.5 (-102) is worth a look, as the Mets haven’t been able to get the bats going, and that should continue against the up-and-coming rookie Abel.

The risk with backing the Under lies in New York’s pitching struggles. The Mets allowed a season-high 10 runs Saturday and have surrendered at least 5 runs in 7 consecutive games since June 13, with the Over hitting 5 times during that stretch. Be careful.

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