Not much better following a frustrating loss than a scoreless first and two homers on the first four pitchers. Kudos to Cade Horton, Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker for getting the game off on the right foot. Two veterans who you look for leadership from and a rookie who has burst onto the scene for this team.
Let’s start with Cade. The line looks rough. If you watched the game, you know that Horton had one of the weirder games that you’ll ever see. Cade was largely effective and was also charged with six runs and failed to get our of the fifth. Our own Josh is fond of pointing it out and I heard JD reference it during the broadcast too, the unearned runs count too. But really, this had to feel like a Low-A game for Cade. Three different fly balls in the vicinity of outfielders dropped. At least two of them would have been caught on an ordinary day. Vidal Brujan’s throwing error was the cherry on top.
Cade ran a bunch of pitch count creep that he maybe shouldn’t have had to and he allowed three unearned runs. This felt like a game where he maybe could have gotten through six with ordinary Cub defense behind him.
Fortunately, the Cubs offense had their A-game, particularly early. The Cubs scored nine runs in three innings. Ian Happ was an enormous part of that with a pair of homers and four runs driven in. Kyle Tucker chipped in with a first inning homer as well. Michael Bush added a three-run homer and PCA tacked on a fifth inning homer to give the Cubs some breathing room.
One recent issue remains front and center and we can look at two old issues that have re-emerged of late that bear watching. The recent issue is that the offense has become extremely homer dependent. The Cubs scored 10 runs but eight of them came off of four homers. That demon still hanging out in plain sight. The bullpen? One run in 4⅓ innings, though they did allow a pair of inherited runners as previously untouchable Drew Pomeranz had a rough day. So the bullpen as a whole? Fine. Some of the anticipated regression is surfacing and it’s coming quickly. The other issue is third base production. No hits, one walk, and along for the ride on a homer. Third base remains an offensive black hole for the Cubs, though largely outweighed by phenomenal outfield and catcher production.
Long story short, nothing that bothered you heading into Saturday’s game went away. But as I covered in the open for Friday’s recap, the Cubs are lethal when they score at least five runs. This makes them 33-5 when they score five or more. Most teams are excellent when they have an offensive outburst. It is not normal to score five or more in a full half of your games. This team is an offensive powerhouse.
It simultaneously amuses, terrifies, and frustrates me that there is such a large part of Cubs social media that is still jaded about this team. I hope not too many of you are that way. I’d think my unending praise and mostly unwavering optimism would drive away most of anyone who feels that way.
Pitch Counts:
Mariners: 175, 39 BF (8 IP)
Cubs: 162, 43 BF
I have 180 labeled as nearly an automatic loss. So the Mariners were well beyond, throwing 175 in just eight innings. There’s not much of anywhere to hide when the wind blows out at Wrigley Field. So unsurprisingly, the Cub numbers were pretty bad too. I will say that the Cubs don’t look quite as bad on a pitches per batter analysis. But, 43 batters faced is evidence of a lot of carnage. 14 hits, two walks, eight strikeouts chewed up a ton of pitches.
The Mariners used three relievers and I’m not sure any of them will be available Sunday. Zach Pop threw 24 pitches. That doesn’t definitely take him out, but it is a lot of pitches for the front of back-to-back. Trent Thorton threw 51 pitches then left the game medically. I’m not sure if that was heat related or an injury. I didn’t see anything obvious. Casey Legumina only threw six pitches, but also threw Friday and has yet to throw three straight days this season. I suspect Pop and Legumina could both throw, but might be second tier options.
On the Cubs side, Brad Keller threw 31 pitches. Brad has only thrown 25 or more pitches on three previous occasions. He one time threw 25 on the front end of back-to-back. Caleb Thielbar has thrown 30 pitches over two days. He’s thrown three straight days at least once that I remember for sure. So we could see him Sunday, particularly if it might be a one or two batter situation to escape an inning. So I’d say six fully available options and two second tier options.
Three Stars:
Brad Keller gets my top spot. Not only did he get five outs on six batters, but he came in first and third with no outs and struck out three straight. He got the win and as much as bullpen wins can be random, this one felt right.
Ian Happ had a pair of homers and a walk. He drove in four and scored two. His wRC+ has hit 118 and he’s an eyelash off of his numbers of the last three seasons. His power numbers are still down a bit, but this recent surge has really helped.
Pete Crow-Armstrong had a homer and a wind blown double. He scored twice and drove in once. That wRC+ is 140. We have no base line for him. The one thing that jumps out at me, that I’ll counter with to those who expect his results to crater. He has a BABIP of .293. I’ll eat my hat if PCA eventually settles out that low. I know big league defense is better and all of that. There is no reason that a guy who hits the ball very hard and has top 1% speed should have a low end average BABIP.
Game 76, June 21: Cubs 10, Mariners 7 (46-30)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Ian Happ (.240). 2-4, 2 HR, BB, 4 RBI, 2 R
Hero: Brad Keller (.143). 1⅔ IP, 6 BF, H, 3 K, HBP (W 3-0)
Sidekick: Kyle Tucker (.089). 1-4, HR, BB, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Drew Pomeranz (-.145). ⅓ IP, 5 BF, 4 H, K
Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.024). 0-5
Kid: Cade Horton (-.019). 4⅔ IP, 23 BF, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 R, 3 ER, 2 K, HBP
WPA Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s three-run homer with one out in the second made it 6-1. (.141)
Mariners Play of the Game: Randy Arozarena batted with a runner on first and one out in the second, the Cubs up two. That was the first of the lost fly balls PCA couldn’t come up with. (.114)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
0%
Michael Busch (2-3, HR, BB, 3 RBI, 2 R)
(0 votes)
0%
Caleb Thielbar (1 1⁄3 IP, 4 BF, K)
(0 votes)
0%
Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(0 votes)
0 votes total
Yesterday’s Player of the Game: Michael Busch received 93 of 105 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +27
PCA +15
Jameson Taillon +14
Shōta Imanaga/Miguel Amaya +11
Jon Berti -9
Ben Brown -14
Julian Merryweather -15
Seiya Suzuki -16.5
Dansby Swanson -22.33
Up Next: The third and final game of the series, winner takes the series. Colin Rea (4-2, 3.84, 68 IP) starts for the Cubs for the 12th time. He’s 2-2 with a 4.93 ERA over his last seven appearances, six starts (and one bulk relief appearance) totaling 38⅓ innings. He’s been better at home (3.57 ERA). He had a terrific start last year against them in Milwaukee. He allowed seven hits, no walk, two runs (one earned) in six innings.
Ho hum, another first round pick. Logan Gilbert was the first-round selection (14th overall) by the Mariners in 2018. The righty is 1-2 with a 2.55 ERA in 35⅓ innings. He’s made seven starts. He’s only made one start after returning from a flexor elbow strain to his pitching arm. He lost that one start, despite only allowing two runs over five innings. He allowed three hits and walked one, striking out 10. He has 54 strikeouts, seven walks on the season. This guy is no joke when healthy.
This is not a wonderful matchup. Hopefully, the Cubs can get a couple of balls into this wild summer wind.