MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 22
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR vs. CHW)
Blue Jays vs. White Sox – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$39 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool does not have any standout pitchers for the featured slate, with RHPs Chris Bassitt and Bryce Elder looking the most appealing against two of the lesser offenses in the league while also not having to worry about the homer-happy weather in St. Louis, Chicago, Minnesota and Pittsburgh.
The projected lineup for Miami has a 19.7% strikeout rate versus righties this season, though Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby and Dane Myers have a collective 30% strikeout rate, which gives some potential upside to Elder.
Up north, veteran RHP Chris Bassitt gets to ply his trade against the second-worst offense in the league. Chicago set all sorts of records for futility last year, though it looks like the Colorado Rockies are going to be revising quite a few of those abysmal marks. Bassitt is clearly on the backside of his solid career, and the 36-year-old does not provide much in the way of strikeout stuff with a 22.1% rate across his last 1,132 batters faced. Fortunately for DFS gamers, the White Sox have Luis Robert Jr. (34.1%, 518 plate appearances), Ryan Noda (36.8%, 106 PAs) and Austin Slater (32.7%, 101 PAs) doing a fine wind farm impersonation at the plate. It looks like youngster Kyle Teel (28.1%, 32 PAs) may be joining this troupe as well, which bodes well for Bassitt.
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Robbie Ray (SF vs. BOS)
Giants vs. Red Sox – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
$11,200 at DraftKings
$10,500 at FanDuel
$50 at Yahoo
There is no denying that LHP Robbie Ray is the pitcher to target on the festive five-game late slate in a tremendous matchup against the meandering Boston Red Sox. Fortunately, the salary algorithms have assigned a hefty cap hit, though it is unlikely to be enough to dissuade most gamers from taking a ride on the Ray-ller Coaster.
Manager Alex Cora has been hesitant to play youngsters Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony in lefty-lefty matchups, so it is likely that one or even both will get the day off. Kristian Campbell was sent back down to the minors to work on his swing, and Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu are not particularly adept in against fellow lefties.
For those seeking differentiation, RHPs Ryan Gusto and Kyle Hendricks are squaring off in Anaheim. Hendricks is winding down his solid career, and Gusto looks like a young Hendricks. Each hurler will be facing a mostly right-handed lineup, which gives them the platoon advantage.
Shohei Ohtani will be starting for the Dodgers, though he is unlikely to go more than two innings unless he is efficient with his expected 35 to 40 throws. RHP Ben Casparius is expected to serve as the bulk pitcher, which would put him in line to be the pitcher of record in the fifth inning and eligible to earn the win.
The final option worthy of consideration on Sunday is RHP Lucas Giolito in San Francisco. The former ace missed last season with an elbow injury suffered in spring training. In the prior year while playing for three different franchises, Giolito allowed the most home runs in the league.
This season has been a nice comeback for the 30-year-old, who appears to have put the longball issue to rest. He has his lowest strikeout rate of the last five seasons but has upped his ground ball rate while also limiting walks. San Francisco has the best pitching weather of the five California locations this afternoon.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Seattle Mariners
Mariners at Cubs – 6.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Colin Rea
DK Top Stack %: 20.6%
FD Top Stack %: 14.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is giving everyone the green light to target the Seattle Mariners in Chicago this afternoon. That holds true even those playing on FanDuel, with the blue site including the Coors Field Extravaganza, which accounts for the disparity in the Top Stack Percentage for the M’s on the two main DFS sites.
Cal Raleigh has a trio of taters so far in this series, hitting his 30th on Saturday and becoming the first catcher as well as the first switch-hitter to reach that milestone before the All-Star Break. The Big Dumper is also the first to reach 30 home runs in 75 games since both Barry Bonds and Luis Gonzalez accomplished that feat in 2001.
In addition to the favorable weather, RHP Colin Rea will be on the mound for the Cubbies, with his below-league-average strikeout rate and a .203 ISO ceded to the last 508 lefties to face him. Luke Raley has returned from his injury, bringing his light-tower power back to the lineup, with switch-hitter Jorge Polanco also doing his best work from the left side of the plate. Dominic Canzone is a desirable discount dandy, while regulars J.P. Crawford, Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena can be employed to round out full stacks.
Late Slate Secondary Target: Cleveland Guardians
Guardians at Athletics – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP JP Sears
DK Top Stack %: 15.2%
FD Top Stack %: 15.9%
Targeting RHP Michael Soroka with the Dodgers in Los Angeles is appealing, even on DraftKings where the top 5 hitters are all listed at $5,000 or higher. Of course, working in a four-man stack while also rostering Ray is going to be tricky, so Cleveland should be considered as an alternative in West Sacramento.
Sears rarely walks anyone, posting a 6.1% rate across his last 1,089 batters faced, and while that would be a good thing for most pitcher, it is a detriment to the 29-year-old and highlights how few bats he actually misses. For those wondering, since the start of last year, he has a 17.9% strikeout and 9.1% swinging strikeout rates with an abysmal .205 ISO.
Look to the top 6 in the Guardians lineup: Switch-hitters Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana lead the way, along with outfielders Steven Kwan and Lane Thomas. David Fry is also in play, though he is likely to be removed for a pinch-hitter when a right-handed reliever replaces Sears. Gabriel Arias is the punt du jour across the main DFS sites for the afternoon action.
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