A little while back, I dropped my Cubs DEFCON to 4. I saw warning signs that suggested a slump might be coming. If you aren’t following me every day, I’m not in possession of any magic formula or inside info. The last time I saw the signs, I was dead wrong and they turned it on a dime and started dominating again. As I said earlier in this series, if Matthew Boyd is hurt, even with Shōta Imanaga returning this week, I’m inclined to drop the number to 3. To be clear, this team doesn’t have enough pitching when Imanaga and Boyd are both healthy and productive. I’m sure they can float it if Boyd needs a precautionary minimum stay on the injured list.

This weekend really got me thinking. The Mariners have had a fair amount of buzz around them in recent years. This year, that buzz is surrounding Cal Raleigh who turned that up to about 14 with his massive weekend at Wrigley Field. It’s not fair to call a coming out party to a guy who was probably already running second in the AL MVP race. But this weekend took it to another level for him. That kind of series against a team that has jockeyed around the best record in the NL is a big deal. He’s building quite a story for himself. It’s probably anti-Yankee bias, but I’m rooting for Raleigh to carry on and win that MVP.

Before this year, the buzz around the Mariners surrounded their very strong starting rotation. The Cubs saw three talented first round pick pitchers. They actually performed pretty well, all things equal, against those three starters. Against one, they rode it all of the way to victory. The guys who are arguably the top two starters for the Mariners, Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo, didn’t pitch in this series. Castillo was an international free agent signing way back in 2011. Woo was a sixth round pick in 2021. Two very different roads to the Major Leagues.

But this is bouncing around in my head recently. I’ve been noting how many top pitchers that the Cubs have faced. The vast majority of those really talented pitchers the Cubs face are former first round picks. The Cubs have two of those, Jameson Taillon and Cade Horton. They also have Jordan Wicks still trying to develop into a major league talent at Iowa.

When Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer took over the Cubs, they had a strategy. That strategy focused on offense in the first round. In 2011, the previous administration had drafted Javier Báez. In their first draft in 2012, they took Albert Almora first. They had two additional picks and grabbed Pierce Johnson and Paul Blackburn. Both of those two eventually reached the majors, though the value both provided to the Cubs was as trade chips. In 2013 it was Kris Bryant. In 2014 it was Kyle Schwarber. Then Ian Happ in 2015.

All of those guys reached the majors. This team has been very good at drafting and developing and scouting. Perhaps some portion of the success is that they’ve avoided the “risk” of drafting first round pitchers. I’ve talked about it recently. I work in the insurance industry. Managing and protecting from risk is a part of who I am. For the dozen plus years this front office has run this team, I’ve supported what they’ve done. I see the wisdom in it.

Ryan Jensen in 2019 was the first, first-round pick of the current management team that missed the major leagues entirely. In total fairness, he had a fluke injury and the pandemic interfere with his career. He also is still in the Twins organization. He’s not done well there, but I am tap dancing prematurely.

I think I was wrong and I now think they are wrong. You can’t just avoid all risk. They’ve done some things through the years and we will, from time to time, see some of their scrap heap relievers be washed out former first round picks. The largest source of star talent is the first round of the amateur draft. That is becoming more true and not less as scouting and player development become more of a science and less art. Given relative health, I’ll expect the player the Cubs draft in the first round next month to eventually reach the majors.

Since 2011, the only two that haven’t reached the majors are Jensen in ‘19 and Ed Howard in ‘20. Both had the pandemic at a crucial time in their player development and serious injuries that set back their development. Howard is still playing for the organization. He’s at Knoxville and rarely plays. He doesn’t produce a lot when he does. He’s going to need a plot twist to get straightened out.

But the point remains. Other than the effective and nasty duo of injuries and pandemic, the Cubs have been excellent in the first round. If I go look at the Cardinals, one pick in ‘18 and one in ‘16 (their third, first round pick) missed. Looking at the Brewers, one in ‘17. The Reds, I go all of the way back to 2014. I’m ignoring 2020 to present with all of these teams. But as a for instance, The Reds have a 2023 pick who already has 1.9 bWAR at the MLB level and a 2021 selection with 3.9.

Teams are better than ever at getting their picks to the big leagues. Four first-round players drafted last July have already appeared in the majors, including Cam Smith, drafted by the Cubs. Ten such players from 2023, including Matt Shaw, of course. Nine from 2022, including Cade Horton and 21 from 2021, including Jordan Wicks. Even from a year as odd as 2020, 29 of the 37 players considered first round picks have reached the majors. Ed Howard was selected three picks ahead of Pete Crow-Armstrong and signed for $400,000 more. That was a huge miss.

That is a lot of words expressing my appreciation for first round pitchers. I’ll be following Wicks in his route back to the majors and the emergence of Cade Horton. I will hope that the front office tabs first-round pitching talent. To be fair, before Paul Skenes the last first-round pitcher who produced significant value was Garrett Crochet in 2020. Also an amusing last note was looking at first rounders through the years and seeing Gerrit Cole reject the Yankees in 2008 to go to college, getting drafted by the Pirates in 2011 and then going to the Yankees in 2020 as a free agent.

On to the game. You might want to avert your poor eyes.

Pitch Counts:

Mariners: 155, 38 BF
Cubs: 164, 47 BF

The Mariners had a clear approach early to attack early in the count. The pitch count for the Cubs in no way reflects how garish this performance was. On the other side, the Cubs did continue to have an effective offensive performance. 33-6 now when scoring at least five. The offense did enough to win on an ordinary day. This day wasn’t ordinary and neither was the weekend. A Mariners team that had notoriously struggled the last few weeks took out a ton of frustration over the weekend and just battered the Cubs pitching all weekend long.

It’s tough to differentiate between Ben Brown and Colin Rea as to who should leave the rotation (assuming Boyd doesn’t need the IL) for the returning Imanaga. It would be easy to over react to this Rea start. Rea is probably more likely to adapt to a bullpen role, but Brown probably have the stuff that plays best there.

As to the bullpen, heading into four straight in St. Louis, neither pitcher who threw Sunday will be seen early in the Cardinals series. Chris Flexen threw 34 pitches. I wouldn’t expect to see him before Wednesday. Nate Pearson threw 41 pitches. No ill will, but this feels like a guy heading back to Iowa for the next man up.

Three Stars:

Seiya Suzuki with two homers and three runs driven in.
Kyle Tucker with two hits, one a homer. Two runs driven in.
Reese McGuire had a solo homer. Those were five of the Cubs10 hits. The rest were all singles. No one had two hits. The only walk was to pinch hitter Justin Turner.

Game 77, June 22: Mariners 14, Cubs 6 (46-31)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.256). 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R

Hero: Kyle Tucker (.020). 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, 2 R

Sidekick: Justin Turner (.018). 0-0, BB, R

THREE GOATS:

Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.413). 4⅓ IP, 27 BF, 11 H, BB, 7 ER, 2 K (L 4-3)

Goat: Chris Flexen (-.123). 1⅔ IP, 8 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 ER, WP

Kid: Michael Busch (-.063). 1-4

WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s second homer was a two-run homer with two outs in the fifth. It cut the deficit to just one. (.198)

*Mariners Play of the Game: Cal Raleigh’s first inning two-run homer for the game’s first two runs. (.178)

Cubs Player of the Game:

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Yesterday’s Winner: Ian Happ (100 of 177 votes)

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

Kyle Tucker +29
PCA +15
Jameson Taillon +14
Shōta Imanaga/Miguel Amaya +11
Jon Berti -9
Seiya Suzuki -13.5
Ben Brown -14
Julian Merryweather -15
Dansby Swanson -22.33

Up Next: Objects in the rear view mirror are closer than you’re happy with. It’s entirely too early to worry about the standings. If this team does the things it is capable of doing, I do believe it eventually runs away with the division. But, the Brewers are now 3½ games back and the Cardinals 4½ after the Cubs dropped three of the last four games.

The Cubs finally see the 42-36 third place Cardinals. Ben Brown (4-5, 5.57, 74⅓ IP) starts for the Cubs. Those numbers aren’t terrific, but over his last seven outings, it’s even worse (1-2, 6.16, 38 IP). He was pretty good against Milwaukee last time out, allowing two runs over five. Two starts earlier, he was quite good in a loss to the Tigers. He can be very good. But there isn’t a lot of rhyme or reason to it.

The Cubs face lefty Matthew Liberatore (4-6, 4.08, 79⅓ IP). The 25-year-old is one of those first round picks. He was selected by the Rays in 2018 (16th overall). His numbers are also trending in the wrong direction (1-3, 5.17, 38⅓ IP). He threw well in Chicago against the White Sox, allowing two runs on five hits over six with no walks.

Not a lot of good news here. Hopefully, the Cubs bats will be dialed in.