The Mariners escaped Wrigley with a series win thanks to the bats heating up along with the temperature in a series critics are calling “like Pee-Wee’s Big Adventure: absurd, but fun.” They now head to Minnesota, which can also be a Midwest weather house of horrors in its own right. Not only is it similarly steamy up north, but rain is in the forecast, with Wednesday almost certainly being a rainy day worthy of tarp-watch, and scattered thunderstorms on Thursday, making rescheduling difficult despite a four-game series. Petition once again that home teams without proper roof coverings have to forfeit games unplayable due to weather conditions if a convenient rescheduling date is not available. Target Field is nice, but the Metrodome had a roof and the bonus of looking like a hot dish, the Midwest’s regional delicacy.
At a Glance
Mariners
Twins
Mariners
Twins
Game 1
Monday, June 23 | 4:40 pm
RHP Bryan Woo
RHP Bailey Ober
50%
50%
Game 2
Tuesday, June 24 | 4:40 pm
RHP Luis Castillo
RHP Chris Paddack
51%
49%
Game 3
Wednesday, June 25 | 4:40 pm
RHP George Kirby
RHP Joe Ryan
45%
55%
Game 4
Thursday, June 26 | 10:10 am
RHP Emerson Hancock
RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
44%
56%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
Twins
Mariners
Edge
Overview
Twins
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
101 (9th in AL)
114 (2nd in AL)
Mariners
Fielding (OAA)
0 (6th)
-7 (11th)
Twins
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
97 (6th)
108 (8th)
Twins
Bullpen (FIP-)
84 (2nd)
106 (13th)
Twins
The Mariners just saw the Twins back in Seattle and earned a series win against them, a bright spot during a miserable swoon. The Twins went on to their own struggles, winning a series against the A’s but then dropping consecutive series to Toronto, Texas, Houston (a very unhelpful sweep), and Cincinnati. They’re coming off the hands of a sweep from their Midwest NL rival the Brewers and would be languishing in last place in their division if not for the existence of the White Sox. Their most brutal loss was maybe this past Saturday, when they got a strong performance from starter Simeon Woods-Richardson that was undone by sloppy fielding mistakes that catcher Ryan Jeffers called “embarrassing.” The Twins are in a tough skid lately, while the Mariners seem to be perking up. With a series win at Wrigley against a very good Cubs team thanks to the continued supernova season of Cal Raleigh and a rejuvenated-looking Donovan Solano, the Mariners come into Target Field with some momentum and a series win on their shopping list, although let’s be honest, they’ll probably wind up buying way more than they planned.
Twins Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Byron Buxton
CF
R
258
26.7%
8.9%
0.289
155
Matt Wallner
RF
L
141
29.1%
9.9%
0.234
110
Willi Castro
2B
S
218
24.3%
9.2%
0.176
133
Trevor Larnach
DH
L
298
21.8%
8.1%
0.160
107
Carlos Correa
SS
R
258
19.4%
6.2%
0.120
91
Ty France
1B
R
301
15.3%
4.3%
0.113
103
Brooks Lee
3B
S
233
19.7%
4.7%
0.128
99
Ryan Jeffers
C
R
242
19.4%
11.6%
0.152
114
Harrison Bader
LF
R
215
24.2%
9.3%
0.166
119
Forgive us for borrowing liberally from the last series preview, but not too much has changed since the past time these two met up. The question for this lineup always remains health, and right now a healthy Byron Buxton is performing at his peak. He’s playing elite defense and hitting well, and should probably be better represented in All-Star voting than he is. His fellow superstar, Carlos Correa, has slipped some and is currently struggling to hit around the .250-.260 mark the rest of this lineup is performing at outside of Buxton and Willi Castro, who’s having a career year at the plate but missed yesterday’s game with wrist soreness.
Probable Pitchers
Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Bailey Ober
79.1
17.8%
6.0%
10.8%
28.8%
4.54
4.70
Bryan Woo
89.1
22.3%
4.0%
10.3%
40.3%
3.12
3.49
RHP Bailey Ober
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
37.3%
90.4
94
86
113
0.348
Sinker
3.3%
90.6
Changeup
29.2%
83.3
106
98
106
0.24
Curveball
4.2%
75.4
80
Slider
17.3%
83.4
92
76
110
0.384
Sweeper
8.7%
79.0
92
130
98
0.317
From a previous series preview:
Bailey Ober uses every inch of his 6-foot-9 frame to maximize his lackluster raw stuff. His elite extension down the mound helps his fastball play up, his release point is much higher than normal, and the movement profile of his pitches is not what you’d expect from a pitcher with his stature. He has one of the most extreme fly ball profiles in the game but manages to keep the ball in the yard thanks to a huge popup rate and plenty of lazy fly balls. His strikeout rate has taken a pretty steep drop this year, though all his underlying pitch metrics look in line with his career norms.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Chris Paddack
80.1
16.7%
6.8%
10.0%
39.4%
4.48
4.35
Luis Castillo
85.1
20.1%
7.8%
10.3%
40.2%
3.38
4.11
RHP Chris Paddack
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
48.0%
93.5
96
77
110
0.337
Changeup
24.0%
84.0
101
90
140
0.331
Curveball
12.2%
77.9
86
51
149
0.254
Slider
14.4%
86.4
85
69
109
0.376
From a previous series preview:
Chris Paddack had two terrible starts to his season, allowing 13 runs in 7.1 innings. He’s allowed no more than three runs in any of his nine starts since then and has looked like a perfectly solid member of the Twins rotation. His strikeout rate has fallen pretty significantly from where it was when he was a highly regarded prospect with the Padres. Now, he mostly relies on some excellent contact suppression skills with just enough swing-and-miss in his profile to make the whole package work. His changeup is still his best pitch, but he’s also integrated two breaking balls into his pitch mix, giving him two additional weapons he never had while he was in San Diego.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Joe Ryan
85.1
28.7%
6.0%
9.4%
37.0%
3.06
3.36
George Kirby
30.2
25.0%
6.1%
20.6%
38.2%
6.16
4.86
RHP Joe Ryan
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
54.0%
93.3
107
124
123
0.288
Sinker
9.5%
92.9
100
99
157
0.422
Splitter
14.9%
87.5
94
69
67
0.308
Curveball
1.5%
78.4
Slider
5.9%
87.0
107
Sweeper
14.3%
80.2
107
118
88
0.257
Joe Ryan has leveraged one of the best four-seam fastballs in the majors into a fantastic start to his career. A slight velocity boost last year helped him lower his FIP by more than half a run and it’s even better this season. His big hurdle has been trying to find the right mix of secondary pitches to pair with his heater and he’s settled on a splitter and two variations of his slider, a harder gyro slider and a slower sweeper. And because his arsenal results in so much fly ball contact, he’s even introduced a sinker to his repertoire to try and keep the ball on the ground just a little more often. The whole package is extremely impressive and you could argue that he’s developed into the ace of Minnesota’s pitching staff.
Game 4 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Simeon Woods Richardson
53.1
19.6%
8.9%
10.5%
31.5%
5.06
4.58
Emerson Hancock
66.1
17.7%
8.5%
19.4%
43.2%
5.43
5.48
RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
45.6%
93.1
81
107
99
0.374
Changeup
8.6%
83.2
107
Splitter
2.3%
86.3
Curveball
15.3%
77.5
85
40
100
0.373
Slider
28.3%
85.4
92
73
94
0.298
Simeon Woods Richardson enjoyed some success in his first full season in the majors last year. His extreme over-the-top delivery creates a ton of carry for his fastball but it also means his entire repertoire is oriented north to south without much horizontal movement to speak of. As a result, his breaking balls don’t miss many bats and instead generate plenty of weak contact. He also doesn’t have a consistent offspeed pitch to keep left-handed batters at bay, which makes him a five-and-dive starter at best. He’s pitched into the seventh inning just twice in his career and his six inning outing in his last start was the longest of this season.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Astros
45-33
0.577
—
W-L-W-L-W
Mariners
39-37
0.513
5.0
W-L-W-L-W
Rangers
38-40
0.487
7.0
L-L-W-W-L
Angels
37-40
0.481
7.5
W-L-L-W-L
Athletics
32-48
0.400
14.0
L-W-W-L-L
AL Wild Card Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Rays
43-35
0.551
+3.0
W-L-W-W-L
Blue Jays
41-36
0.532
+1.5
W-L-L-W-L
Mariners
39-37
0.513
—
W-L-W-L-W
Guardians
39-37
0.513
—
W-L-L-W-W
Red Sox
40-39
0.506
0.5
L-W-W-L-L
Annoyingly, the Mariners didn’t get anything out of their series win at Wrigley because Houston also won their series against the Angels, who will see Baltimore at home this week. The Astros will go on to play the Phillies this week, so LET’S GO BIRDS, or things of that nature. The Rangers are coming off a series win against the Pirates, duh, and will play at Baltimore this week before they return home to face the Mariners, who will be finishing up this long road trip. The A’s managed a series split against the Astros but went on to lose against the same Guardians team the Mariners just swept; they’ll have a tough slate this week against the Tigers and Yankees