MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 23
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Bryan Woo (SEA at MIN)
Mariners at Twins – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
$9,600 at DraftKings
$9,600 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool has good news and bad news. Starting with the unfortunate, there are no standout pitchers on Monday’s slate. On the positive side, everyone has the same choices. There are 10 pitchers on FanDuel with between a 6% and 9% probability of leading the slate, while on DraftKings five have between a 15% and 21% of being a top-2 fantasy pitcher.
It is RHP Bryan Woo projecting a tick higher than the rest of his counterparts on Monday, though he also has an elevated salary. Woo is very efficient, leading the league among qualified starters with only 13.96 pitches per inning. This has helped him stay in the top 10 with 10 quality starts in his 14 appearances; however, the tradeoff is a below average strikeout rate in the 21% to 22% range each of the last two seasons.
The sixth-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft does an excellent job of shutting down fellow righties, posting a 52.5% ground ball rate, though he has struggled against left-handed batsmen that have power. It won’t be a walk in the park tonight with Trevor Larnach (.281 ISO, 322 at-bats), Matt Wallner (.182 ISO, 604 ABs), Kody Clemens (.270 ISO, 206 ABs) and switch-hitter Brooks Lee (.167, 152 ABs), but Woo is the leading candidate for “safety” as far as that goes in the context of this slate.
Main Slate Value Pitching Target: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI at CHW)
Diamondbacks at White Sox – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
$7,300 at DraftKings
$8,400 at FanDuel
$30 at Yahoo
Because there are so many pitchers muddled near the top of the projections, the next highlighted option is LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, who projects as a solid fantasy point-per-dollar option on both DraftKings and Yahoo, making him a fine SP2.
Rodriguez is in his age-32 season, having missed the 2020 campaign after contracting COVID and suffering myocarditis. Though he has not had Tommy John surgery, E-Rod has had a myriad of injuries across his decade in the league. Last year a shoulder issue cost him the first four months of the season, but this year he has been healthy.
Chicago has an 84 wRC+ against left-handed hurlers this season, which is in the bottom third of the league. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes ballpark factors, among other variables, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This means that the Pale Hose are creating runs 16% less efficiently than league average.
Temperatures will be in the upper 80s for the first hour or two of this game with 50% to 60% humidity, which is a boost to the bats.
Other options for today include RHP Spencer Schwellenbach in New York against the Mets. The bottom of the order presents three-up, three-down potential, though the first five players on the lineup card are pretty fierce.
In Milwaukee, RHP Chad Patrick is facing a Pittsburgh offense that has little power against righties, recording a league-low .106 ISO, and the Pirates’ 81 wRC+ is among the bottom 3 teams.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: New York Yankees
Yankees at Reds – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Nick Lodolo
DK Top Stack %: 12.9%
FD Top Stack %: 13.1%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool has the Yankees just above the rest of the fray, gaining both a weather and a venue upgrade in Cincinnati’s Great American SMALLPark, where temperatures are in the low 90s with 60% humidity.
DraftKings is making things fun by assigning a $6,600 cap hit to Aaron Judge, who leads the league with a .367 average while trailing Cal Raleigh by four home runs and ranking fifth with 61 RBIs. Paul Goldschmidt has been resurgent this season, recording a .525 wOBA and a .315 ISO in 83 plate appearances against lefties. Cody Bellinger has also been a source of production in same-handed matchups to the tune of a .381 wOBA and a .194 ISO.
Giancarlo Stanton is back, though he is looking a little rusty, so Anthony Volpe is a better stacking candidate for those looking to go beyond the aforementioned trio.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Los Angeles Angels
Angels vs. Red Sox – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Walker Buehler
DK Top Stack %: 5.4%
FD Top Stack %: 4.9%
It is going to be a cooler evening in Anaheim with game-time temperatures in the upper 60s. This will be augmented later in the evening as the marine layer arrives after sunset. Even with the relatively sedate 4.5 implied run total, Los Angeles is appealing against RHP Walker Buehler.
The trio to target is at the top of the order with Zach Neto, Taylor Ward and Mike Trout all boasting exceptional power against same-handed hurlers. For those seeking a full stack, first baseman Nolan Schanuel has good contact in lefty-righty matchups, and catcher Logan O’Hoppe is worthy of consideration to fulfill the backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo.
Buehler has really struggled with same-handed hitters, ceding a .344 wOBA and a .215 ISO across the last 308 batters he has faced. The 30-year-old journeyman also has a below-average strikeout rate (20.1%) over the last two seasons, with his main hopes of survival being his ability to induce ground balls at a nearly 50% rate. The last four starts were particularly putrid, resulting in a 10.50 ERA, 7.35 FIP and 4.89 xFIP in 18 innings. In this stretch he allowed half a dozen round-trippers and 23 overall runs in just 18 frames. Enjoy!
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