The Rays have been a model for sustainable success on a budget, although they are still seeking the first title in club history. They made five consecutive playoff appearances until they regressed last year to have their first losing season since 2017.
This year, they have bounced back and the turnaround has been primarily through a huge improvement in offense. Last year the Rays were second-worst in runs scored, this year they are sixth-best.
Tampa Bay Rays (43-35) vs. Kansas City Royals (38-40) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Rays: 4.76 runs scored/game (6th in MLB), 3.86 runs allowed/game (8th)
Royals: 3.36 runs scored/game (29th), 3.63 runs allowed/game (2nd)
The Rays are hitting .256 as a team, tied for fourth-best in baseball, and they have the third-highest groundball rate. They are hitting .285/.362/.452 with runners in scoring position, the third-best wRC+ in those situations.
Junior Caminero has taken a step forward to become one of the top power hitters in baseball, and he is currently tied for third in the American League in home runs. But Caminero is just a .167/.239/.392 hitter on the road. Jonathan Aranda has destroyed right-handers, batting .335/.414/.524 against them. Yandy Díaz is hitting .418/.477/.684 with five home runs in his last 19 games. Brandon Lowe is a career .290/.353/.597 hitter at Kauffman Stadium with five home runs in 16 games.
Christopher Morel has a 34.3 percent strikeout rate, the fourth-highest in baseball for players with at least 150 plate appearances. Díaz has a 54.2 percent groundball rate, sixth-highest among qualified hitters. Brandon Lowe has a 15.6 percent swinging strike rate, tenth-highest in baseball, and he is hitting just .161/.212/.258 against lefties. Josh Lowe is hitting just .155/.259/.254 in the month of June.
The Rays lead all of baseball with 104 steals with an 82 percent success rate. José Caballero leads the Majors with 29 steals, and the Rays will call up Chandler Simpson and his 19 steals today. The Rays are also without infielder Ha-Seong Kim, and outfielders Johnny DeLuca and Richie Palacios due to injuries. The Rays are fifth-best at Defensive Runs Saved, with shortstop Taylor Walls leading the league, but second baseman Brandon Lowe among the worst in baseball.
Rays starting lineup
Starting Lineup
PA
HR
SB
BA
OBA
SLG
wRC+
fWAR
Starting Lineup
PA
HR
SB
BA
OBA
SLG
wRC+
fWAR
DH Yandy Díaz (R)
320
12
3
.282
.331
.463
125
1.3
2B Brandon Lowe (L)
303
15
2
.264
.314
.461
120
1.2
3B Junior Caminero (R)
306
19
5
.265
.310
.523
134
2.1
1B Jonathan Aranda (L)
282
8
0
.325
.411
.486
160
1.9
CF Jake Mangum (S)
159
1
10
.318
.361
.392
119
1.2
RF Josh Lowe (L)
143
4
5
.230
.317
.381
103
0.7
LF Christopher Morel (R)
172
6
4
.224
.297
.410
102
0.2
SS Taylor Walls (S)
203
2
9
.222
.302
.307
78
0.5
C Danny Jansen (R)
188
7
0
.196
.303
.356
93
0.6
Bench
PA
HR
SB
BA
OBA
SLG
wRC+
fWAR
C Matt Thaiss (L)
39
0
0
.281
.395
.313
116
0.3
IF Curtis Mead (R)
111
33
3
.250
.342
.385
113
0.6
IF José Caballero (R)
205
2
29
.223
.328
.331
96
1.3
OF Chandler Simpson (L)
133
0
19
.285
.315
.317
83
-0.1
Taj Bradley has seen his strikeout numbers fall and his walk number rise this year. He got just four outs in his last start, giving up two home runs and seven runs against the Orioles. He hasn’t gone more than four innings in his last three starts, giving up 19 runs. Taj Bradley has the ninth-highest walk rate in baseball and he has allowed the highest pull rate in baseball at 50 percent. He has a 96 mph fastball, a cutter, a splitter, and a curve.
Drew Rasmussen already had 15 starts this year, the second-most in a season in his career. He has the tenth-lowest ERA in baseball this season, and his 2.76 ERA since 2021 is the sixth-lowest in the game. He has not gone more than six innings in a start this year. He had a 23-inning scoreless streak earlier this year, but has given up eight runs in 16 1⁄3 innings over his last three starts. He has been much worse on the road this year with a 3.86 ERA, as opposed to 2.16 in 11 stats at home.
Shane Baz has already hit a career high in innings pitched after battling injuries for years. He has a 6.08 ERA in ten starts since the beginning of May, but has won his last four decisions. He throws his 96.8 mph fastball nearly half the time, but opponents are hitting .429 against his slider this year. Rasmussen, Baz, and Bradley are all in the top 13 in baseball in groundball rate, each around 50 percent.
Expected pitching matchups
Tuesday, June 24, 6:40 CT
ERA
FIP
IP
K/9
BB/9
fWAR
Tuesday, June 24, 6:40 CT
ERA
FIP
IP
K/9
BB/9
fWAR
RHP Taj Bradley
4.95
4.62
80.0
8.2
3.8
0.4
LHP Kris Bubic
2.12
2.52
85.0
9.3
2.9
2.7
Wednesday, June 25, 6:40 CT
ERA
FIP
IP
K/9
BB/9
fWAR
RHP Drew Rasmussen
2.61
3.53
79.1
7.6
2.0
1.4
RHP Michael Wacha
3.24
3.80
86.0
6.8
2.4
1.6
Thursday, June 26, 1:10 CT
ERA
FIP
IP
K/9
BB/9
fWAR
RHP Shane Baz
4.79
4.83
82.2
8.4
3.7
0.2
RHP Michael Lorenzen
4.81
4.70
82.1
7.5
3.1
0.5
The Rays have a 3.29 ERA from their bullpen, third-lowest in baseball, with the third-lowest walk rate. Former Mizzou pitcher Pete Fairbanks has converted 13-of-15 save opportunities and has allowed a run in just four of his last 22 outings. Eric Orze has the second-highest pop-up rate at 25.6 percent. Garrett Cleavinger has the highest hard-hit rate in baseball at 45 percent. Opponents are hitting .351/.390/.459 off Mason Montgomery this month. The Rays recently acquired former top 100 prospect Forrest Whitley from the Astros, but he has allowed six runs in 3 2⁄3 innings since joining the Rays.
Rays bullpen
Bullpen
ERA
FIP
IP
K/9
BB/9
fWAR
Bullpen
ERA
FIP
IP
K/9
BB/9
fWAR
RHP Pete Fairbanks
2.15
2.73
29.1
8.0
4.3
0.7
LHP Garrett Cleavinger
2.70
4.14
30.0
11.4
1.8
0.1
RHP Edwin Uceta
4.94
5.91
31.0
9.3
4.1
-0.8
LHP Mason Montgomery
5.00
3.89
27.0
12.0
4.3
0.1
RHP Kevin Kelly
3.07
4.64
14.2
6.8
1.2
-0.1
RHP Eric Orze
1.97
3.29
32.0
8.2
3.4
0.4
RHP Paul Gervase
0.00
5.07
2.0
4.5
9.0
0.0
RHP Forrest Whitley
13.09
6.89
11.0
7.4
4.9
-0.2
The Royals swept the Rays in Tampa earlier this year, and the two teams split their six games last year, with each team taking a series on the road. The Rays have won seven of their last ten, and haven’t lost a road series since mid-May. The Royals will face a tough homestand with the Dodgers coming to town this weekend, but they could show they are up to the challenge with some wins over the Rays.
Poll
How will the Royals fare against the Rays this series?
33%
Royals sweep 3-0
(1 vote)
0%
Royals take 2 of 3
(0 votes)
0%
Rays take 2 of 3
(0 votes)
3 votes total