With the 2025 MLB draft right around the corner, we at LL want to prepare you for all the possibilities still out there for your Seattle Mariners. It isn’t all that clear where they’ll end up spending their money with their first pick, but after getting lucky in the lottery and receiving the third overall pick in the draft, they’re all but assured to bring in a super talented player that slots firmly into their upper echelon of prospects. Let’s break it down and see what direction they might go.
The Lefties
Kade Anderson, Louisiana State LHP
Arguably the best collegiate pitcher all season and the D1 leader in strikeouts, Anderson has the best combination of projection, command, and stuff of any pitcher in this class. He’s not the prospect that Chase Burns or Hagen Smith was last season, but he’s definitely got a leg up on any other arm in this class. I don’t expect him to be around at three, but if he is, I’d be floored if he wasn’t the guy.
Anderson would cost the most of any of the college arms as his absolute floor is a top three pick, and it should be noted he had to get TJ surgery back in 2022 as a high schooler. It’s not a major concern with how commonplace the surgery has become, but it’s something to point out. Regardless, he’s the best player available.
Jamie Arnold, Florida State LHP
This is where things begin to look more realistic. I’d be pretty surprised if Arnold wasn’t available for Seattle at three, but if he were to go, it’d likely be to the Angels rather than the Nationals. The uber-unique Arnold is a true sidearmer from the left side and can hold his fastball velocity into the mid 90’s with tons of carry for his arm slot. Better still, his slider-splitter combo is deadly and can miss a ton of bats. If everything were to click for Arnold, you could be looking at three plus pitches.
Arnold doesn’t come without flaws, however. He’s a bit smaller than you’d prefer (6’1 192 lbs) for a top line starter and his overall performance was just a tick lower than it was in 2024, largely due to stagnating command and less value from the fastball. People were hoping he’d take that next step this season, and while he was still a great arm against ACC competition, it was largely much of the same as what we’d previously seen.
He’s worked with driveline in the past and works on his pitch shapes quite a bit, potentially making him a solid fit for the Seattle development chain. I think Arnold would be the cheapest of the three college lefties and is a name I’m watching closely.
Liam Doyle, Tennessee LHP
Maybe the flashiest name we’ve covered so far, Doyle made headlines after he transferred to Tennessee and immediately lit up radar guns with a truly special fastball. It’s a double-plus pitch for him and he uses it heavily. There’s a slider/cutter combo that acts as his primary off speed and he’s used a splitter as well, but the major calling card here is the heater. It’s dominated SEC hitters and is plenty good enough to carry his profile.
Doyle employs a high effort delivery that has some scouts understandably worried about relief risk, however he’s been relatively consistent at the college level with command and he’s able to hold his velocity late into games. If he can refine his secondaries a bit more and continues to command the baseball as a professional, Doyle likely possesses the highest ceiling of the three college starters. Naturally, however, he comes with the most risk. There’s a non-insignificant chance he’s a leverage reliever long term.
The Golden Child
Seth Hernandez, Corona High School RHP
The player with the highest potential in the entire class, Hernandez is the blueprint for how you draw up a top of the rotation arm. Coming in at 6’4 195 lbs, Hernandez has plenty of projection left on his frame and is already hitting triple digits with his fastball. He’s a buttery smooth athlete on the mound and repeats his mechanics well, an excellent sign for his command down the line. He’s got one of the best changeups in the entire class, a nasty breaker that has good late bite, and can throw any one of his four pitches for strikes. There’s a ton to love with Hernandez’s profile.
The risk you run here is the relatively low hit rate on high school right handers at the top of the draft. Jackson Jobe is the last one to go in this range of the first round, and though he’s looked dominant at time in the minors, it’s taken him a long time to put things together and he’s dealt with several major injuries as most pitchers ultimately do. You’re essentially cranking the risk/reward meter up to eleven and hoping your pitching development team can both keep him healthy and transform him into the ace he’s shown he can be. It’d cost a pretty penny to bring him in, but if they end up going this route, he’d immediately be in contention for the team’s top prospect spot.
RHP Seth Hernandez with an electric outing today.
FB – 93-98 T99, hit 99 in 7th, arm-side run with flat angle to plate
CH – 81-84, + pitch with serious fading life
CB – 77-82, big breaker with depth
SL – 86-88, CT/SL hybrid
Very explosive. #1 RHP in HS on @JustBB_Media Top 200. pic.twitter.com/2LmV3WxAcd
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 10, 2025
The Prep Shortstops
Ethan Holliday, Stillwater High School SS
Likely the name people are most familiar with, Ethan Holliday is the son of former Colorado slugger Matt Holliday and younger brother of former #1 overall pick Jackson Holliday. Ethan has been in the spotlight as a potential top pick for several years and has tremendous ceiling on the offensive side of the ball. It’s plus power or better from the left side in an athletic 6’4 frame. He’ll stick on the left side of the infield, though more likely at third base rather than shortstop.
The concerns with Holliday are over the hit tool. Evaluators have expressed concern over his contact rates at the plate and fear he could eventually become more of a three true outcome player at the plate. Combine that with his almost certain move off of shortstop to the hot corner and he’s reduced his overall ceiling rather significantly. If you think the hit tool is anywhere near average, however, you’ve got an electric athlete with tremendous twitch and a potential as high as anyone. It’s not the type of player the M’s have coveted in the past, but if he slips to three, I’m sure they’ll consider him as an option. He’ll cost their entire slot bonus or more if he’s their guy, though it feels more likely he’ll be off the board entirely.
1️⃣1️⃣1️⃣ mph off the bat
‘25 Ethan Holliday (OK) delivers a thunderous barrel to this one for a missile single.
Wow. Some real loud stuff from the top player in the class.
#MLBDraft || @PBR_DraftHQ pic.twitter.com/hTPncRX9x6
— Shooter Hunt (@ShooterHunt) July 18, 2024
Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton High School SS
Willits is one of the youngest players in this draft after reclassifying from the 2026 class and possesses an exceptionally well rounded profile across the board. It’s a plus hit tool as a switch hitter and he should be a more than competent shortstop at the next level with a plus run tool. He’s the product of baseball bloodlines as well, with both his dad and brother currently affiliated with the Oklahoma baseball team. He gets a lot of “baseball rat” labels as someone who “does all the little things right”, however there are some serious tools here to dream on. He could be a really fun player.
The question here is how much impact is going to be in the bat. He won’t even be 18 by the time the draft comes, but his body has a ton of filling out to do and it’s fringy power right now. If he can get up to average power, you’re looking at a very special player. He might not even need to get there to be an everyday stalwart for your squad, but it’s the biggest concern as of now. He would be another pricey signing that won’t save you any cash, but he’s the exact kind of player Seattle has targeted in the past.
JoJo Parker, Purvis High School SS
Parker has been flying up the rankings this spring and has positioned himself as a potential top ten pick this July, however he acts as a bit of a sneaky option for the M’s at three. With as polished of a hit tool as anyone in this class and some power projection left to his physical frame, his offensive upside might just be enough for Seattle to consider him as an underslot option with their first pick. He doesn’t have the run tool that Willits has and he’s not quite the defender Willits is either, but he might save you upwards of a million bucks and probably has a similar ceiling if everything goes right. I don’t think it’s the likeliest outcome based on what they’ve done historically, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Draft Spotlight: SS JoJo Parker Purvis HS (MS)
Huge LH hit tool upside on the dirt; good athlete w/ can flat out spray it all fields & well-rounded tools across the board. Getting into power. Riser this spring garnering plenty of buzz.@Parker2Jojo @PG_DeepSouth pic.twitter.com/mMCPcXU1Fc
— Perfect Game Draft (@PG_Draft) May 13, 2025
The PNW Connection
Aiva Arquette, Oregon State SS
Arquette is the best all around college bat in this class. With a mix of above average shortstop defense and some prodigious power at the plate, the 6’5 infielder has a rare combination of size and athleticism that is slated to get him selected within the top ten picks of this draft. Arquette, formerly a Washington Husky, transferred to Oregon State this season and lead the Beavers to Omaha with a strong postseason. Some have postured he’ll need to move off shortstop due to his size, but he truly is smooth out there and would probably be at least a plus defender at third if they moved him, but I think he’ll be fine up the middle for now.
There are some concerns over the hit tool with Arquette and he’s got some holes in his swing, but if the M’s want to go for a college bat, Arquette seems like the easy choice. Whether he would be a big money saver or not isn’t all that clear at this point, but I doubt he would break the bank. He’s an interesting option to look at for those who are wary of taking a pitcher at the top of the draft.
Aiva Arquette is squarely in the 1-1 conversation. Now hitting .350 with 17 HRs and 69 RBIs after he punished this hanging SL. Ceiling is immense, advanced athlete who has played well at SS this spring. Bat speed is there, plus power… enticing profile.pic.twitter.com/9JlnzqEEy0
— Peter Flaherty III (@PeterGFlaherty) May 10, 2025
That wraps up the list of who seems most likely to go to Seattle with the #3 pick. There could always be something completely unexpected happen between now and the draft, but I’d expect the newest Seattle Mariner farm hand to be on this list. Let us know who your favorite is below and as always, GOMS!!