Prior to Wednesday’s shutout loss in Minnesota, the Mariners were averaging 6.6 runs scored per game over their previous 11 games. Even when you include the single run scored over the last two games against the Twins, the M’s runs scored per game over this stretch only falls to 5.6, fourth highest in the majors. The final two games in Minnesota are just the most recent example of how hot and cold this team can get at the drop of a hat. Included in this 13 game stretch are another shutout and one-run game sandwiching an eight-run affair against Boston. The rain delay on Thursday was unfortunate because the team is in the middle of a 17-game stretch without an off day and needed to fly from Minneapolis to Arlington immediately after the game. Hopefully there won’t be any tired legs during this series in Texas.
At a Glance
Mariners
Rangers
Mariners
Rangers
Game 1
Friday, June 27 | 5:05 pm
RHP Logan Gilbert
RHP Nathan Eovaldi
49%
51%
Game 2
Saturday, June 28 | 1:05 pm
RHP Bryan Woo
RHP Kumar Rocker
50%
50%
Game 3
Sunday, June 29 | 11:35 am
RHP Luis Castillo
RHP Jack Leiter
53%
47%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
Rangers
Mariners
Edge
Overview
Rangers
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
85 (13th in AL)
112 (2nd in AL)
Mariners
Fielding (OAA)
11 (4th)
-7 (11th)
Rangers
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
87 (2nd)
110 (11th)
Rangers
Bullpen (FIP-)
87 (4th)
108 (13th)
Rangers
Speaking of inconsistent teams, the Rangers have been lurking on the fringe of the AL Wild Card race for a while now. They stumbled a bit toward the end of May, going 6-14 over a 20 game period from May 15 to June 6. They’ve gone 11-6 since then and have climbed to within one game of .500. Their pitching staff has continued to be a strength, leading the majors in runs allowed per game. The offense has been a bit better in June, which explains some of their success this month, but if you look a little closer, they’ve been just as inconsistent as they’ve been all season long. Thirty-two of their runs scored this month came in two games against the Twins a few weeks ago — if you ignore those two games, their runs scored per game in June falls to 3.4, right in line with what they’ve done all year long.
Rangers Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Josh Smith
1B
L
267
17.2%
9.0%
0.142
117
Wyatt Langford
LF
R
292
26.0%
9.6%
0.189
103
Corey Seager
SS
L
208
20.7%
11.1%
0.148
102
Marcus Semien
2B
R
323
18.3%
9.9%
0.113
85
Adolis García
RF
R
297
24.6%
6.1%
0.163
86
Evan Carter
CF
L
98
16.3%
8.2%
0.172
124
Josh Jung
3B
R
277
23.5%
5.4%
0.138
90
Sam Haggerty
DH
S
115
16.5%
10.4%
0.147
112
Jonah Heim
C
S
214
22.4%
4.7%
0.150
78
It’s pretty easy to see why this lineup isn’t scoring runs; all the guys who you’d expect to be driving the offense just … aren’t. Corey Seager, Marcus Stroman, and Adolis García are all suffering through the worst seasons of their careers and Wyatt Langford has struggled in his second big league season despite some excellent underlying metrics. The lone bright spot has been the follow up season Josh Smith has put together after his breakout last year. It’s a real problem when Sam Haggerty, yes, that Sam Haggerty, is one of your best and most consistent hitters.
Probable Pitchers
Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Nathan Eovaldi
69.1
27.4%
3.8%
7.7%
50.9%
1.56
2.33
Logan Gilbert
40.1
38.0%
4.4%
22.6%
44.4%
3.12
2.96
RHP Nathan Eovaldi
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
28.8%
94.1
94
53
100
0.382
Cutter
19.1%
90.8
87
96
72
0.348
Splitter
29.2%
87.4
104
106
111
0.262
Curveball
21.4%
76.0
107
144
96
0.205
Slider
1.5%
85.7
From a previous series preview:
With Jacob deGrom sidelined for nearly the entire time they’ve been teammates, Nathan Eovaldi has essentially been the Rangers’ de facto ace for the last two years. He’s always had a hard fastball and good command of his entire repertoire, but the key that unlocked his ceiling was the development of his fantastic splitter. Now that he’s reached his mid-30s and his fastball velocity has dipped to under 95 mph, he’ll need to rely on his secondary offerings even more. Beyond his split, his curveball is probably his second best pitch, and he’ll use a cutter to keep left-handed batters at bay.
A minor triceps injury has interrupted Eovaldi’s fantastic season. He’ll be making his return from the IL without making a rehab start and could be on a limited pitch count as a result. In his last start against the M’s, he allowed three runs in five innings.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Kumar Rocker
33.2
19.7%
7.0%
12.1%
46.4%
6.68
3.94
Bryan Woo
95.1
23.1%
4.0%
11.4%
40.1%
3.12
3.59
RHP Kumar Rocker
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
20.8%
96.0
85
83
122
0.390
Sinker
28.1%
95.6
98
59
70
0.434
Cutter
14.6%
90.6
102
Changeup
4.7%
88.5
Curveball
8.2%
77.5
102
Slider
23.6%
84.0
100
123
123
0.317
From a previous series preview:
Kumar Rocker’s wild path to the majors finally came to its conclusion last fall when the Rangers called him up for a cup of coffee in September. At that point, he had thrown just 64.2 innings as a professional, thanks in part to a Tommy John surgery in 2023. He was as raw as you’d expect from a polished college starter who spent a year in independent ball after the Mets draft shenanigans left him high and dry. Still, despite the lack of pro ball experience, he held his own against major league competition across three starts last year. His slider is his best pitch by a wide margin — batters simply cannot touch it. The rest of his repertoire is still a work-in-progress and he has some serious relief risk because he doesn’t really have a third or fourth pitch that’s very reliable.
After a brief demotion to the minors, Rocker is back in the majors with a revamped pitch mix. He’s added a cutter to his repertoire which gives him an intermediary pitch between his four-seamer and devastating slider. The results have been promising, though his entire profile still rests on his ability to locate his pitches. In his last outing against the M’s, he allowed four runs in 3.1 innings.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Jack Leiter
65.1
18.3%
11.5%
11.3%
40.4%
4.55
4.87
Luis Castillo
90.1
19.7%
7.9%
10.6%
41.0%
3.69
4.21
RHP Jack Leiter
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
31.5%
97.4
121
107
84
0.361
Sinker
18.6%
96.4
104
110
66
0.411
Changeup
12.2%
90.9
105
100
79
0.383
Curveball
9.7%
81.5
94
82
117
0.469
Slider
27.9%
87.7
105
69
96
0.309
From a previous series preview:
Despite a phenomenal college career and a lofty draft pedigree, Jack Leiter has had some real trouble adjusting to professional baseball. Command issues have plagued him throughout the minor leagues and his brief cup of coffee in the majors did not go very well last year. He added a sinker and a new changeup to his arsenal this offseason and the widened repertoire gives him a few more tools to keep batters off balance. More than anything, he really needs to show that he’s developed his command to stick in the big leagues.
The Mariners handed Leiter his worst start of the season back in early May; he allowed six runs on eight hits in just 4.1 innings.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Astros
48-33
0.593
—
L-W-W-W-W
Mariners
41-39
0.513
6.5
W-W-W-L-L
Angels
40-40
0.500
7.5
W-L-W-W-W
Rangers
40-41
0.494
8.0
W-L-L-W-W
Athletics
33-50
0.398
16.0
L-L-L-W-L
AL Wild Card Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Rays
46-35
0.568
+4.5
W-L-W-W-W
Blue Jays
43-37
0.538
+2.0
W-L-W-L-W
Mariners
41-39
0.513
—
W-W-W-L-L
Guardians
40-39
0.506
0.5
W-W-L-W-L
Angels
40-40
0.500
1.0
W-L-W-W-W
The Rangers are coming off a nice little 4-2 road trip through Baltimore and Pittsburgh, their fourth and fifth series wins of the month. The Astros continue to push their lead in the division after sweeping the Phillies at home. They haven’t lost a series since losing two of three to the Rays in mid-May. Houston will host the Cubs this weekend. A sweep of the Red Sox has pushed the Angels back to .500 and they’ll look to continue making headway in the Wild Card standings in a three-game series against the Nationals this weekend.
In the Wild Card race, the Blue Jays took a three-game series from the Guardians this week. Toronto will travel to Boston over the weekend while Cleveland hosts the Cardinals. The Rays lead in the Wild Card standings grew to 4.5 games after they swept the Royals and they’ll look to keep their hot streak going with a series in Baltimore.