Score one for numerology. The Cubs win game number 80 by a score of 8-0.
This game feels like the sports equivalent of turning your computer off and back on again. The system rebooted and things rolled back to an earlier boot of this season. I don’t have delusions that this just magically fixes what’s been wrong for this team in recent weeks. But, it sure was nice to break the constant stress of the last few weeks and just have an easy win.
While it most certainly doesn’t flip some switch and make everything great again, it is heartening to see all of the things that put this team on top early. Pitching, defense, offense. They all clicked and contributed. Everyone who played (other than Jon Berti getting a token plate appearance) made at least some contribution.
I know some of you are discouraged. But the team we fell in love with is still there. Matthew Boyd shaking off that scary line drive and some bruising and soreness in his pitching shoulder was terrific. He was outstanding Wednesday night. Thursday afternoon’s game with the return of Shōta Imanaga is another big step. If he can make some impact, that’s going to be a huge lift for the team.
Let’s stay with bullet pointing some recent themes:
Poor Starting Pitching: there’s a reason this is top of the list. A good start changes everything. Boyd’s start was in the upper tier of those made by Cub starters this year, Six scoreless. Three hits, no walks, three strikeouts.
Poor Relief Pitching: this has been absent all series long. Three relievers, all notably spent time on the injured list this year, each threw a scoreless inning. One hit, no walks between them.
Homer Happy Offense: half of the eight runs scored on homers. Let’s be clear, no one is saying that homers are bad. Ignore any jokes you’ve ever heard about them being rally killers. A homer always helps. But, you do need to be able to score without them. The team drew four walks, had two doubles on top of three homers, stole three bases. They had 12 hits. All of the ingredients for scoring and shocker, they posted eight runs.
Third Base Production: Interesting day for Matt Shaw. A walk, a run, a run batted in and a stolen base. A reminder of the range of talents. The offense needs an upgrade, it’s almost certainly going to have to come at third base.
Dansby Swanson: batted fifth again. Single, double, two runs scored. Two strikeouts. He did reach on a wild pitch on one of the two strikeouts and that led to a run. Still managed to strike out with runners on second and third with two outs in the eighth. He’s been terrible with runners and scoring position.
Pitch Counts:
Cubs: 106, 32 BF (8 IP)
Cardinals: 153, 44 BF
This one should get a small asterisk in your thinking. The Cubs saw 150 pitches over eight innings and 41 batters faced. The Cardinals waved a white flag and the Cubs went up swinging in the ninth. The Cubs really worked the Cardinals hard through eight innings. 20 pitches an inning really exerts immense pressure on the other team. The Cubs were under 20 but over 19.
The Cubs pitchers were terrific. The Cardinals worked at bats in the ninth, so they didn’t wave any white flags offensively. But the Cubs really held the Cardinals offense in check start to finish.
John King threw 37 pitches and Matt Svanson 35 of them. They are possibly the last two arms in the Cardinal pen, or at least two of their lower tier arms. But they are probably both unavailable tomorrow. The biggest impact of that is always visible if the Cubs can ambush the Cardinals starter tomorrow. Facing games all the way through Sunday, they’ll probably have to roll at least four or five innings with their starter. Probably a remote possibility, but as tonight shows, when the offense explodes, it explodes.
Three Cubs relievers topped out at 13 pitches. I’m not sure how likely the Cubs are to use Porter Hodge right away. Otherwise, looks like a full pen available for the Cubs on Thursday. Michael Fulmer and Ryan Brasier have each thrown twice in the series. All other Cub relievers have thrown once each. The Cubs have done extremely well at balancing out their pitching over this last month where they’ve been playing basically every day.
Three Stars:
I said it above, six innings, three hits, no walks, no runs. Matthew Boyd gave the Cubs a good start and they won. Go figure.
Ian Happ started things right with a homer on the first pitch. A pair of hits, a walk, three runs batted in. Every year features a long Happ cold stretch, people going off about how terrible he is, and the inevitable reversion to his very consistent career numbers. Still a little slug under. At 20.2 bWAR, he’s fifth among all players drafted in the first round in 2015. I guess it’s a shame the Cubs didn’t sign Alex Bregman who is first, because they already have Dansby Swanson and Kyle Tucker who are second and third. Not bad for the ninth overall choice.
Kyle Tucker gets the third spot. A homer, a single, a walk, a run, a run driven in, a stolen base. The man knows how to fill a box score.
Game 80, June 25: Cubs 8, Cardinals 0 (47-33)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Ian Happ (.138). 2-4, HR, BB, 3 RBI, R
Hero: Matthew Boyd (.137). 6 IP, 22 BF, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 3 K (W 7-3)
Sidekick: Ryan McGuire (.127). 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.023). 1-4
Goat/Kid: Seiya Suzuki/Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.020). Suzuki: 0-4, BB; PCA: 1-5, 2B
WPA Play of the Game: Reese McGuire’s two-run homer with two outs in the second to make it 4-0. (.149)
*Cardinals Play of the Game: Yohel Pozo’s lead off double in the third inning with the Cardinals down five. (.036)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
This poll is closed
0%
Michael Busch (3-5, RBI, 2 R, SB)
(1 vote)
0%
Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(0 votes)
186 votes total
Yesterday’s Winner: Seiya Suzuki received 70 of 147 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +31
PCA +15.5
Matthew Boyd +12
Jameson Taillon/Shōta Imanaga/Miguel Amaya +11
Jon Berti -9
Seiya Suzuki -14
Julian Merryweather -15
Ben Brown -17
Dansby Swanson -24.33
Up Next: The fourth and final game of the series, with some remaining chance of a split for the Cubs. Shōta Imanaga (3-2, 2.82, 44⅔ IP) makes his ninth start for the Cubs and first since May 4. He made two starts against the Cardinals last year and was 1-0 with five runs allowed in 13⅔ innings. He will be making his first start in St. Louis.
Andre Pallante (5-3, 4.48, 82⅓ IP) was a fourth round pick of the Cardinals in 2019. The righty is 26 years old. He’ll be making his 16th start of his season. He was very good last time, allowing three hits, a walk and no runs over six innings while beating the Reds. He’s nominally better at home (4.34 v 4.60) and during the day (4.05 v 4.69). He made just one start against the Cubs last year, throwing 3⅓ innings and allowing two runs, one earned on five hits and no walks.