The Tampa Bay Rays (47-36) visit the Baltimore Orioles (35-47) as the AL East foes meet Sunday to close out a 3-game series. The first pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Rays vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 3-3
Tampa Bay lost Friday’s series opener 22-8 and then routed Baltimore 11-3 on Saturday. The Rays are 6-2 over their last 8 games and have won 11 of 14 games since June 13.
The Orioles have lost 5 of their last 7 games. The last-place club in the AL East exploded for 14 extra-base hits in Friday’s 22-8 triumph. The 22 runs marked Baltimore’s most in a single game since 2000. But on Saturday, the Orioles logged just 4 at-bats with runners in scoring position in a rout that went the other way.
Rays at Orioles projected starters
RHP Taj Bradley vs. RHP Dean Kremer
Bradley (5-5, 4.57 ERA) is making his 17th start. He owns a 1.28 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 86 2/3 innings.
Last outing: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 5-1 win at Kansas City Royals TuesdayCareer vs. Orioles: 1-2, 8.71 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 26 H, 6 BB, 26 K in 5 starts
Kremer (6-7, 4.60 ERA) is making his 16th start and 17th appearance. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 90 innings.
Last outing: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-2 loss at New York Yankees last SundayCareer vs. Rays: 3-1, 2.25 ERA (40 IP, 10 ER), 33 H, 17 BB, 36 K in 8 starts
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Rays at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:27 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Rays -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Orioles -115 (bet $115 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+150) | Orioles +1.5 (-185)Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -118 | U: -102)Rays at Orioles picks and predictionsPrediction
Rays 5, Orioles 4
The Rays have gone 26-17 against clubs playing .500-or-worse ball. And they are 4-2 over their last 6 games at Camden Yards.
Baltimore has played worse than expected this season and yet runs, runs allowed and base analytics would indicate the Orioles have perhaps been a few games fortunate so far. Tampa has played better than expected, yet the opposite holds true with how the Rays have performed in those expected-vs. actual measures.
Bradley has been hurt by a .341 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations. A couple recent missteps have been significant, and one such game came against these Baltimore Orioles two starts back (7 runs allowed in 1 1/3 IP June 18). But he has a bit of a gulf between his actual and expected-ERA figures. He’s a ground-ball pitcher, and Baltimore has struggled mightily against such types.
BET TAMPA BAY (-105).
No interest. PASS.
This series has seen a lot of runs. But Sunday figures as a push-back.
The back ends of both bullpens are well rested, and the starter matchup has stronger analytics than it does surface-line appeal. Neither side has filed impressive series-finale offensive performances over recent weeks.
The UNDER 9.5 (-102) is the value side here.
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