The expanded playoffs can make it difficult to pick out the definite sellers right up until the Trade Deadline, but that is not a problem that applies to the Marlins. Despite it being easier than ever to sneak into the postseason, Miami seems like one of the few teams actively trying to avoid playing baseball once the regular season ends. Their only offseason signing was a one-year, $3.5 million pact for the recently non-tendered fifth starter Cal Quantrill, despite an offense whose preseason projections placed in the historically bad realm.
How they are not last in the division escapes me (way to go, Nationals). Regardless, FanGraphs gives them a 0.1-percent chance of making the playoffs. Despite sitting an out-of-character seven-game winning streak, they sit 37-45, 8.5games back of the final Wild Card spot with the second-worst run differential in the National League. Add all that to president of baseball operations Peter Bendix’s stated preseason focus on the future and if that’s not the definition of a clear seller, I don’t know what is.
It seems like a yearly tradition that we hear about the Marlins surplus pitching at the Trade Deadline, but is it possible they’ve missed the boat? Ever since he signed his five-year, $56 million extension prior to the 2022 season, it has felt like a matter of time that the Marlins would deal Sandy Alcantara to a contender. There is scant chance of that happening this season. Among the 82 pitchers who have thrown at least 80 innings this season, his 6.98 ERA ranks dead last entering play on Sunday.
Although Alcantara’s velocity has remained constant since returning from Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2024, he looks a hollow shell of the pitcher who unanimously won the 2022 NL Cy Young. Strikeouts are down while walks, home runs, hard-hit rate, and barrels are up, and with $17.3 million owed both this year and next, you would be hard-pressed to get a team to bite even with a miraculous turnaround in form in the final month before the deadline. They could, of course, still try to trade him if someone makes the right offer, but it’s easier to envision a scenario where they try to get Alcantara back on track in the second half in anticipation for a possible offseason deal with a better return.
Quantrill is the only player on an expiring contract but a 5.56 ERA is hardly an upgrade to a starting rotation. Ryan Weathers might’ve been an intriguing piece but his season is seemingly over with a lat strain. Edward Cabrera is likely the most available starter, the hard-throwing righty posting a 3.78 ERA and 4.06 FIP in 13 starts, but with three years of team control beyond this season would not come cheap. Otherwise, guys like Eury Pérez and Max Meyer are far enough away from free agency that the Marlins would want to build around the pair should they ever intend on contending. (Meyer in particular is done for 2025 due to hip surgery.)
The same could be said for the impact players on the offensive side. The Marlins’ two best position players basically fell into their laps, Kyle Stowers arriving alongside Connor Norby from the Orioles for starter Trevor Rogers at last year’s deadline while Otto Lopez was claimed off waivers from the Giants at the start of last season. Stowers is slashing .278/.356/.494 with 13 home runs, 40 RBIs, and a 133 wRC+ while splitting time between the corner outfield spots. Lopez has been one of the best defensive second baseman in the league this season while slashing .260/.330/.394 with eight home runs, 38 RBIs, a miniscule 13.9-percent strikeout rate and a 101 wRC+ overall. However, both are under team control through the 2029 season and figure to be the centerpieces of an ostensible rebuild.
Xavier Edwards broke out putting up over two wins in just 70 games last season but he’s gone from a 128 wRC+ to a 94 wRC+ this year and has yet to hit a home run in 68 games. It feels like Jesús Sánchez’s name is floated at every deadline but he’s hitting at a league-average clip with poor right field defense.
Instead, it appears the most likely unit to have a player dealt is the relief corps. Ronny Henriquez is the most exciting arm of the bunch, a rare four-pitch mix for a reliever allowing him to place in the 96th percentile league-wide in whiff and chase rates and the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate. At 5-foot-10 and 155 pounds he doesn’t have the typical frame of a late inning reliever, but his 3.00 ERA and high-90s fastball with elite carry prove he could close for a lot of teams.
Anthony Bender and Cade Gibson are a pair of middle relievers with sub-three ERAs, but they rely more on groundballs than wipeout stuff to collect outs. The Yankees have added a reliever at every deadline in the recent past, so Miami might be a team to watch in that regard.
Thus, the Marlins are in the weird position of being sure-fire sellers without a whole lot of players to deal. Barring a complete reversal from Alcantara and a team in desperate need of a body in the rotation, they may have to settle for moving a reliever or two without receiving a possible core piece for the future.