April 13th was the last time the Yankees were not alone in first place in the AL East. A choppy 8-7 start had the Yanks a half-game behind the Blue Jays following a series loss against the San Francisco Giants. The next day, the Yankees smashed four home runs off of Seth Lugo in a win over the Royals, while the Jays dropped a home game to the Atlanta Braves. Since then, the Yankees have sat atop the AL East by themselves for the past 79 days.

Tonight, that can all end. With a Yankees loss, the Blue Jays will pull into a tie for first place and will technically be in front due to a head-to-head tiebreaker. To further turn up the urgency, the Rays held off the A’s earlier today to stave off a home sweep and pull to within a game as well. This skid has to stop very soon to avoid tumbling in the standings.

After the Yankees’ two All-Star pitchers couldn’t do the job in the past few days, they’ll turn it over to rookie Will Warren, who’s looking to continue his positive momentum. Despite walking three in the first inning of his start against the A’s at Yankee Stadium, he gritted his teeth and got through five shutout innings, picking up his fifth win. In 17 starts, he has a 4.37 ERA (93 ERA+), 2.87 FIP, and 103 strikeouts in 80.1 innings. Warren leads all rookies in strikeouts.

Warren’s peripherals paint the story of a significantly better pitcher than what his ERA states, as his FIP ranks 10th in MLB among pitchers with at least 80 innings. Since a catastrophic blowup start at Chavez Ravine and his outing against Boston that was ruined by late command issues, Warren has allowed just five runs in 23 innings with 28 strikeouts over four starts. He’ll look to keep it rolling against a Blue Jays lineup that strikes out less than every other team in baseball.

José Berríos will take the mound for the Blue Jays. In 17 starts, the Puerto Rican native has a 3.26 ERA (128 ERA+) and 4.08 FIP in 102 innings. Despite striking out less and walking more batters than he has for most of his career, the 31-year-old is putting together his best season in a Blue Jays uniform. He tossed 5.1 shutout innings against the Yankees in late April, but has been historically mediocre against the Yankees with a career 4.86 ERA across 15 starts. Over nine starts from 2022-24, he had a 5.47 ERA.

Despite his good numbers, his peripherals look mediocre. His fastball is down a tick from last season, and he’s running a high barrel rate. He doesn’t induce a ton of groundballs, and his wOBA allowed is 39 points lower than his xwOBA. He’s been mainly sinker-slurve, but leans on his four-seamer and changeup considerably more against lefties. The expected stats on his sinker look rough, and the Yankees do pretty well against sinkers. Food for thought.

Austin Wells and Trent Grisham are still not in the lineup today. According to Aaron Boone, Wells is available off the bench and should start tomorrow, while Grisham could start in tomorrow’s series finale if he has a good day today:

Trent Grisham (hamstring) is seeing improvements. Bryan De La Cruz is no longer here on the taxi squad. Aaron Boone said if Grisham has a good day today, he could be in tomorrow’s lineup.

— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) July 2, 2025

Ben Rice will lead off and start his third career game behind the plate. Judge bats second, Bellinger third, and Stanton cleanup. DJ LeMahieu once again gets the start and will bat ninth at second base, as Jazz Chisholm Jr. stays at third and will bat fifth despite an ongoing discussion on their positions going forward.

Andrés Giménez will lead off for Toronto for the first time this season after his go-ahead home run off of Fried yesterday. Alejandro Kirk is back behind the plate, while Will Wagner returns to the lineup. Bo Bichette is out for the third consecutive game.

How to watch:

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada

First pitch: 7:07 pm EDT

TV Broadcast: Sportsnet, TVA Sports (TOR) [Amazon-exclusive for NYY]

Radio Broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | SN590, SN App (TOR)

Online Steam: Amazon Prime Video, MLB.tv (out-of-market)

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