Update 2 p.m. ET: The Cleveland Guardians were projected to start RHP Luis Ortiz when this story was first published, but MLB placed the right-hander on non-disciplinary paid leave due to an MLB investigation. LHP Joey Cantillo is now expected to start.

Original column below (published 1 p.m. ET), which has been updated with pitching information and the latest odds.

The Cleveland Guardians (40-44) visit the Chicago Cubs (51-35) in the Thursday finale of their 3-game series at Wrigley Field. The game’s first pitch is slated for 8:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Chicago leads 2-0

Cleveland hit 3 home runs, but still managed to lose Wednesday’s game 5-4, and the Guardians head into Thursday’s contest looking to avoid a sweep after a 5-2 loss in the series opener. Cleveland has lost 6 in a row overall and has slashed a meager .145/.222/.258 (.480 OPS) along the way.

The Cubs are 5-2 with a 2.51 ERA over their last 7 games. They have won 3 games in a row and 6 of their last 9 contests in their ivy-covered home environs on Chicago’s North Side.

Guardians at Cubs projected starters

LHP Joey Cantillo vs. RHP Cade Horton

Cantillo (1-0, 3.81 ERA) is being recalled from Triple-A Columbus to replace Ortiz on the hill. It will be his first start at the big-league level this season after 21 relief appearances in 2025 and the first time in his career he faces the Cubs.

Last outing: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 15-6 Columbus Clippers loss at Iowa Cubs Friday2025 for Guardians: 1-0, 3.81 (28 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9, 11.9 K/9 in 21 gamesSince demotion to Triple-A May 27: 0-0, 3.86 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 7 H, 4 BB, 15 K in 4 starts2025 MLB road stats: 1-0, 1.35 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 7 H, 7 BB, 14 K in 12 relief appearances

Horton (3-2, 4.80 ERA) is making his ninth career start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 45 innings.

Last outing: Loss, 4 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 7-4 loss at Houston Astros Friday23-year-old rookie owns a 6.52 ERA over his last 4 starts

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Guardians at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:23 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Guardians +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Cubs -145 (bet $145 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-185) | Cubs -1.5 (+150)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Guardians at Cubs picks and predictionsPrediction

Cubs 5, Guardians 4

The Guardians (+120) have been a fade team of late, and that has paid off for bettors who saw some analytics that paled in comparison with surface results as of a few weeks back. The rookie Horton has scuffled for the Cubs (-145), but the Guardians are still in fade territory.

The Cubs have banged out a high-contact .845 OPS over their last 11 games. The Guardians are 1-4 across their last 5 series finales. BACK CHICAGO (-145).

No interest. PASS.

Not much of a lean here, but both of these bullpens could use — and are not getting — a Thursday off day ahead of the holiday weekend. The back ends of those relief units figure to be in fatigue territory, and the OVER 8.5 (-115) is worth a partial-unit look.

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