Trade speculation season is in full swing, and the latest proposal making waves involves the Minnesota Twins shipping off one of their best players in recent history. A potential deal between the Twins and Phillies would send center fielder Byron Buxton to Philadelphia in exchange for right-handed pitcher Mick Abel and catching prospect Alirio Ferrebus.

It’s a headline-worthy idea. Buxton has been a cornerstone of the Twins’ organization for over a decade, since he was taken with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft. When healthy, he’s a game-changing talent who can impact both sides of the runs ledger. This year, he’s shown flashes of his best form again. Through 67 games, he’s already posted 3.3 bWAR ,with 19 home runs and a 149 OPS+, plus elite defense in center field. But as intriguing as the hypothetical may be, the reality is far more complicated.

Why the Phillies Would Pick Up the Phone
Philadelphia’s outfield production has been among the worst in the league. Their revolving door of Brandon Marsh, Max Kepler, and Johan Rojas has combined for -0.7 bWAR. Even more staggering: Phillies center fielders have just two home runs all season, the fewest in baseball.

With postseason ambitions and a pressing need to upgrade their outfield, the Phillies could be in the market for an impact bat. Buxton, when healthy, checks every box. He brings elite speed, power, and defense. Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, has made it clear that the Phillies will be buyers, with his primary focus being upgrading their bullpen. However, he has been known to take big swings when his team is in contention. 

The cost to acquire Buxton? Likely steep. A proposed deal includes 2020 first-rounder Abel, a 23-year-old pitcher with frontline potential, and Ferrebus, a 19-year-old catcher with tools and upside currently ranked in the organization’s top 30. But with Aaron Nola expected back from the IL and top prospect Andrew Painter nearing MLB readiness, the Phillies may feel they can afford to part with pitching depth in the name of a championship run.

Why the Twins Might Listen… in Theory
If the Twins decide to pivot toward the future, Buxton’s contract of roughly $50 million through the 2028 season could be viewed as a long-term hurdle. Trading him would open payroll space, add a top arm in Abel to a pitching pipeline that needs more depth, and potentially clear a path in center field for top prospects Walker Jenkins or Emmanuel Rodriguez down the line.

Ferrebus would also help replenish the system’s depth behind the plate, a position with no clear long-term solutions. The Twins could look at this as an opportunity to retool on the fly, while maximizing Buxton’s current value. But even if that logic holds, there’s one critical detail that makes this deal highly unlikely.

The No-Trade Clause Matters—A Lot
Buxton has full no-trade protection through the 2026 season, and there’s little indication he’s eager to leave. In fact, one of the primary reasons Buxton signed a long-term extension with the Twins (well below his projected market value) was to keep his family rooted in Minnesota. He and his wife have spoken publicly about how much they enjoy raising their kids in the state and building a life in the community. Even after 2026, he’ll have the right to reject a trade as he’ll have surpassed 10 years of service time by then. Players with at least 10 total seasons of service and five continuous years with one team have de facto no-trade rights, regardless of contract terms.

That loyalty helped the Twins land a potential franchise player at a discounted rate. It also gives Buxton complete control over where he plays, and there’s no indication he’s asked to move on even as the team has struggled to stay in postseason contention this summer. Buxton has endured multiple injuries, roster shakeups, and managerial changes during his tenure in Minnesota. He’s still here. That doesn’t sound like someone looking for a change of scenery.

A Tempting Offer, But a Long Shot
From the Phillies’ perspective, the deal makes a lot of sense. They need outfield help, they’re in a win-now window, and Buxton could be the kind of October weapon that pushes them over the top.

For the Twins, it would be a tough emotional pill to swallow, but potentially a logical baseball decision if the franchise shifts its focus toward the future. But Buxton holds the final say. And based on everything we know, this is a player who isn’t looking to jump ship anytime soon. Nor is it clear that the team is willing to give him up, given everything he means to both the clubhouse and the fan base, in addition to his raw on-field value.

Thus, while the idea of Buxton roaming center field at Citizens Bank Park might make for good content in trade season articles, don’t expect it to become a reality. If Buxton leaves Minnesota, it won’t be because the front office pushed him out. It’ll be because he decided it was time to go. And that time doesn’t appear to be now.

Does the deal make sense for the Twins? Is there a scenario where Buxton would waive his no-trade clause? Leave a comment and start the discussion.