*Note: Like last year, there are no current Diamond Dores players either I or any draftnik project to be first rounders. Like last year, this is a problem. There will be a few commits expected to hear their names in round one, of course. That, too, is a problem, but much less of one if we were still in the business of developing future first rounders like Enrique Shockwave. Let’s get back to that business soon. End of digression.
#22 Jr. LHP JD “Terror Lake” Thompson
2025 Stats: 6-5, 4.00 ERA, 12.20 K/9.
Here’s his MLB.com scouting report:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
Though he was a lefty with some of the best pitchability in Texas’ 2022 high school class, Thompson lacked the physicality and present stuff to prod teams to try to buy him away from his Vanderbilt commitment. Three years later, he’s still 6 feet tall and still doesn’t light up radar guns, but he’s one of the better southpaws in the college crop. He’s serving as the Commodores’ Friday-night starter in 2025 and could land in the top two or three rounds.
Though Thompson’s fastball camps at 90-93 mph and tops out at 95, it ranks near the top of college baseball in terms of getting strikes, chases and swings and misses both inside and outside of the strike zone. His heater features significant induced vertical break, and he also can command it to both sides of the plate. His second-best offering is a 77-81 mph sweeping slider that he uses primarily against lefties and can back-foot versus righties.
Thompson also can miss bats with his mid-70s curveball and low-80s changeup with mild fade but has more difficulty landing them for strikes. He has little effort in his delivery and repeats it well, so he could develop above-average control. He comes with a high floor as a No. 4 starter and might be better than that if his fastball continues to thrive at the next level.
Range: Rounds 2-5.
Prediction: Terror Lake’s not ever going to be someone who overpowers MLB hitters, but can be a crafty lefty with good accuracy in the mold of a Randy Wolf (who, coincidentally, was taken in the 2nd round in 1997 by the Phillies). Honestly, if he was a RHP with his traits, he might be drafted much later, but MLB teams believe lefties are worth their weight in gold. Just take a quick look at the mock drafts—some have three college lefties as the top three overall picks, and, well, I don’t get it. Not a one of them (LSU’s Anderson, FSU’s Arnold, and The Chuggers’ Doyle) screams “Ace” to me, though the first two have high MLB starter floors and the Chugger has more volatility, but a shot at ace-dom. Still, the market clamoring for them should tell you a little about the inflationary value of being a LHP viewed as a potential starter. For me, I might wait a few rounds before calling Thompson’s name, but teams might view him as someone with a #5 starter floor. I view him as having a #5 starter ceiling, too, however. That’s still a second or third rounder for many teams. He honestly just had an okay junior season with the Diamond Dores (upped his K/9, but was pretty much the same 4 ERA type pitcher he was before, otherwise), but these rankings indicate it didn’t hurt him in the eyes of MLB scouts. Anyway, I expect him to go in the top 5 rounds and sign with the team that drafts him.
Chance He Signs With an MLB Team: 99.999%.
#42 Jr. CF RJ “Stone Cold” Austin
2025 Stats: .257/.353/.383 with 15 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 42 RBI and 22-27 steals.
Here’s his MLB.com scouting report:
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 60 | Arm: 45 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45
Austin’s athleticism and versatility might have landed him in the top five rounds as a Georgia high schooler, but he withdrew from the 2022 Draft to fulfill his Vanderbilt commitment. He started at second base as a freshman and at first base as a sophomore, when he saw action at all four infield positions as well as left and center field. He hasn’t put up huge offensive numbers in three college seasons but had a strong 2024 summer with the U.S. collegiate national team and in the Cape Cod League.
Austin has a lot going on with his right-handed swing and employs a big leg kick, but his hand-eye coordination and sense of timing allow him to make repeated contact to all fields. He almost puts the bat on the ball too easily, producing too much ground-ball contact and cutting into his walk totals. He lacks power and rarely drives the ball in the air to his pull side, so he may not offer more than 10-12 homers per season.
With plus speed and a high baseball IQ, Austin is a proficient basestealer. He covers ground and has good defensive instincts, though his fringy if accurate arm limits his effectiveness on the left side of the infield. He fits best at second base or center field, and he manned the latter position capably this spring. Scouts love his makeup.
Range: Rounds 4-10.
Prediction: Yeah, that scouting profile above was definitely before this year happened and they didn’t bother to change it. While RJ didn’t have an atrocious junior campaign, he certainly dropped off when he needed to step up to improve his draft stock. His power stroke went the way of the dodo, his batting average tanked, and if not for his excellent speed and defense, I’m not sure he looked like a draftable player last year. He’s more of a project than a prospect at this point, so if a team throws money at him, it’s because they view 2025 as an aberration. At the very least, it knocked him down a few rounds, and bumped up the possibility he returns for his senior year to try to ratchet up his stock for 2026. Remember, though, that the O’s took Carter Young in the 17th round in ‘22 after a disastrous junior campaign and threw north of $1 million to sign him away from an LSU transfer NIL deal. I expect Austin to still be drafted after his rough ‘25 campaign, and likely to sign with the team that drafts him, but there is at least a chance his stock dropped enough so he returns now… and that was not remotely true a year ago.
Chance He Signs With an MLB Team: 80%.
#55 Jr. RHP Cody “Bowser” Bowker
2025 Stats: 3-5, 4.38 ERA, 12.38 K/9.
Here’s his MLB.com scouting report:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Cutter: 45 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40
A two-way player as a Georgetown freshman in 2023, Bowker became a full-time pitcher last spring and earned Cape Cod League all-star honors during the summer. After transferring to Vanderbilt, he has become a solid No. 2 starter for the Commodores thanks to one of the more unhittable fastballs in the Draft. It’s his lone better than average offering but could propel him into the top four or five rounds.
Bowker usually operates at 90-95 mph with his fastball, but it’s not velocity that makes it special. He uses a drop-and-drive delivery and a low arm slot, producing unusually high spin from an unusually low release height, which makes his heater appear to be rising more than most. He pounds the zone with his fastball and also gets chases with it, and it’s almost impossible to deal with when he throws it at the letters.
Bowker doesn’t land his other pitches for strikes consistently, though he can entice batters to chase his sweeping low-80s slider. His cutter and sinking changeup both arrive in the mid-80s but can get pounded if he doesn’t locate them well. Because he has just one weapon that can miss bats, he’ll nibble around the strike zone with his other offerings.
Range: Rounds 5-10.
Prediction: Bowker was a solid transfer addition, but more as a depth starter than someone who comes in and dominates. When I saw him live in Norman, he had about as bad a pitching performance as anyone can have and still be allowed to take the ball again in a college baseball game. It was an aberration, sure, but it was abysmal. Damn, I’m going dark in these draft previews this year, aren’t I? How the hell did the NCAA give us the #1 overall seed going into the tournament???
Regardless, Bowker looks to be someone who could turn into a useful bullpen arm for an MLB team and, as such, should expect to be drafted and signed. Beyond that, his lack of experience as a pitcher might prompt teams to elevate him based on projectability. Like pretty much everyone on Vanderbilt’s 2025 pitching staff, he sure could strike people out.
Chance He Signs With an MLB Team: 95%.
#88 Sr. RHP Sawyer “Exit the Warrior” Hawks
2025 Stats: 4-0, 1.60 ERA, 11.80 K/9.
Here’s his MLB.com scouting report:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 40
Hawks pitched with Paul Skenes at Air Force in 2022 and spent another year with the Falcons before transferring to Vanderbilt in 2024. He missed the last three months of last season with a sprained elbow ligament but bounced back this spring to star as the Commodores’ closer and become one of the better senior prospects available. He posted a 1.60 ERA, struck out 36 percent of the hitters he faced and earned eight saves, including the clincher in the Southeastern Conference tournament.
Hawks’ fastball operates at 92-94 mph and tops out at 96, playing better than its velocity because of its life (ride and run), metrics (low release height and extension) and his ability to command it. His go-to secondary pitch is a tight low-80s slider, though his fading mid-80s changeup is more effective. He also can catch hitters off balance with a mid-70s curveball that he lands for strikes.
Because he has a legitimate four-pitch arsenal, Hawks likely will get a chance to start in pro ball. He helped his cause by improving his control as a senior, slashing his walk rate to 7 percent, down from 15 percent in his first three years in college. He only worked 120 1/3 innings in four years in college and missed two weeks in the middle of this season with mild shoulder inflammation, so he’ll have to prove his durability.
Range: Rounds 5-10.
Prediction: Unlike the others above, Sawyer Hawks had an excellent year that, in a fair and just society, would elevate him to the top few rounds of this draft. I would certainly take him, maybe even as early as the 2nd or 3rd round, and fast-track him to an MLB bullpen. He looked ready for that this year, honestly. However, MLB teams almost alway downgrade relievers, which makes very little sense given the importance of relief pitching in the current era of major league baseball. So yeah, I like his arm better than any other Vanderbilt draft eligible player, but MLB teams will likely disagree. While Hawks does have the ability to return as a RS Sr., he has likely elevated his draft stock as much as possible right now.
Chance He Signs With an MLB Team: 90%.
#32 Jr. 1B Riley “The Vice-Admiral” Nelson
2025 Stats: .344/.450/.526 with 13 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 47 RBI and 7-9 steals.
Range: Rounds 11-Undrafted.
Prediction: Similar to Hawks, Nelson had a fantastic junior year, but MLB positional versatility will hurt him even more, as he’s a contact over power first baseman who is likely limited to 1B, DH, and LF defensively (though that would be more like Kyle Schwarber in LF defensively, so buyer beware). However, scouts seemingly have yet to warm up to him, opening up a the possibility he could return to The Hawk as a senior.
Chance He Signs With an MLB Team: 50%. I would absolutely love it if he returns.
That will likely do it for players likely to be selected in the top 10 rounds, certainly, but rounds 11-20 are much harder to predict, so consult Aria’s chart for other draft eligible players (those in green are draft-eligible, but much more likely to return).
With the MLB draft 9 days away, I’ll look into the commits in the coming days.