The Detroit Tigers (54-34) and the Cleveland Guardians (40-45) open a 3-game series at Progressive Field in Cleveland Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB.TV Free Game of the Day). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 3-1

The Tigers might have a comfortable 12½-game cushion over both the second-place Guardians and Minnesota Twins, but Detroit struggled with Cleveland in a 4-game set at Comerica Park May 22-25. The Guardians won 3 of 4 in the series, outscoring the Tigers 17-11. The only game the Tigers won was the May 25 finale, a 5-0 complete-game shutout victory behind LHP Tarik Skubal.

Detroit lost 2 of 3 in Washington earlier in the week, including an 11-7 loss Thursday. 2B Gleyber Torres and OF Parker Meadows each had multi-games, posting 2 singles apiece in 4 at-bats, while both players also drove in a run. DH Spencer Torkelson had the team’s only extra-base hit, a homer, which was his 19th of the season.

RHP Reese Olson, Friday’s probable starter, is expected to come off the 15-day injured list, according to manager A.J. Hinch. The 25-year-old Georgia native hasn’t pitched since May 17.

Cleveland enters with 7 consecutive losses, but what is even more alarming is that it has been shut out 4 times in that skid. That includes a 1-0 setback in 10 innings at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs Thursday, spoiling a decent, short effort in the season debut of RHP Joey Cantillo and good work by the bullpen. CL Emmanuel Clase took the loss, allowing a run in the bottom of the 10th.

With all the recent shutout losses, it’s no surprise the Under is on a tear for Cleveland — hitting in 5 of 7 games during their current skid and going 12-4 in the past 16 since June 15. The Guardians have been shut out in 5 of those games.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

RHP Reese Olson vs. RHP Slade Cecconi

Olson (4-3, 2.96 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 48 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 2-1 road loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 172025 road stats: 1-2, 3.76 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 1 HR in 5 startsHasn’t faced Guardians in 2025Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 1-0, 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 0.83 WHIP, 7 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K in 2 starts

Cecconi (3-3, 3.64 ERA) makes his ninth start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 42 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 5 K in 9-6 home loss vs. St. Louis Cardinals last Saturday2025 home stats: 0-1, 5.79 ERA (14 IP, 9 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 16 H, 4 HR, 6 BB, 16 K in 3 startsCareer vs. Tigers: 1 road start (May 23), win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H (solo HR), 2 BB, 6 K in 3-1 victory

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Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:22 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Tigers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Guardians +105 (bet $100 to win $105)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+140) | Guardians +1.5 (-170)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)Tigers at Guardians picks and predictionsPrediction

Tigers 5, Guardians 2

The TIGERS (-125) might have had difficulty with the Guardians earlier in the season, but that’s when Cleveland was playing well. The offense has been a hot mess lately, and while the pitching has been OK at times, it isn’t good enough to mask the horribly inconsistent and unproductive bats.

Cecconi will likely keep the home side in it, but the bats are unlikely to provide much resistance to the Tigers. The only concern is Olson, but even if things are turned over to the Detroit bullpen early, that’s OK. The Tigers have a 3.82 ERA, which is middle of the road in the AL. Detroit is eighth in the AL in bullpen ERA, just ahead of Cleveland (3.88 ERA – ninth).

If you’re a little more adventurous, TIGERS -1.5 (+140) is worth a look at plus-money. Detroit did lose a pair to the lowly Nationals earlier this week, so it isn’t a slam-dunk play. But again, Cleveland has been shut out 4 times in its 7-game losing streak.

If you’re really looking for a good value, consider the ALTERNATE RUN LINE – TIGERS -2.5 (+210) for the chance to more than double up.

UNDER 8 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

While the Guardians have struggled to plate runs, ticking off the Under in 12 of their last 16 games, the Tigers have averaged 7.0 runs over their past 5 outings, cashing the Over in 4 of them.

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