Heroes and Goats warning, this is one of those days where WPA might feel less than entirely satisfying. Something I’ve said for so long that I was saying it before I was even the one writing this feature. When the game gets lopsided quickly, whatever happens first tends to set the order. To that end, Colin Rea threw two shutout (perfect) innings to start the game. That first inning gave him .047 WPA and the second .048. It was already lopsided by the third, but you can see the effect happening. He added .033. Even when he allowed a run in the fourth, he only dipped by .002 for the inning.
This is one of those games that people will remember. A holiday game and a record setting day. You’ll have read about it before you got here. Eight homers in one game. None of us has ever seen the Cubs do that. Michael Busch with three homers as a Cub first baseman. Very few of us has ever seen a Cubs first baseman do that, despite a tradition of good first basemen for this franchise.
It was great for multiple reasons. This picked up the momentum off of the sweep of Cleveland. This was a great pick me up after word of the Jameson Taillon injury. I feel like I spoke that into existence a little. I’ve long held that you don’t talk about how personnel decisions will work out. This is how such things often work out. It looks like you have too many pieces for available space. With Jordan Wicks on fire and the looming trade deadline, it looked like maybe Chris Flexen was in a tough spot. Now he may get the load opportunity Saturday (though it could also be Wicks.)
This team just keeps winning. People have questions. Some of them are even legitimate questions. 53 of 88 games have been wins. That’s a 98-win pace. Teams that work to acquire talent at the deadline frequently do better after the deadline. I said it yesterday and I’ll double down. This team could win 100 games.
What a magical ride.
Key Storylines:
Starting Pitching? Rea was terrific. 24 batters, 20 outs. One hit, unfortunately a homer, and two walks. The Cardinals have been struggling. He did not let them flip the script.
Relief Pitching? The Cubs only needed four outs out of their bullpen. It took them just four batters to get there and three of them were strikeouts.
Homer Over Reliance? Well, truthfully, yeah. 10 runs on eight homers. This is an odd one. Just four singles, one double. They drew no walks. They stole no bases. So they did none of the extraneous things to create offense. It’s actually decent sequencing that they even got 10 runs off of the eight homers. If this category bothers you, then you didn’t enjoy this game as much as you should.
Third Base Production: Nope. Four hitless at bats.
Dansby Swanson: batted fifth. Two hits, one of the homers. Two runs, two runs driven in. He was 1-2 when PCA was on first, the one hit a homer.
Opposing starter? A righty starter allowed 10 hits, six homers totaling eight runs. 41-22 versus righty starters. For what it’s worth, they added three runs on a pair of homers off of lefty John King. PCA a single and Busch a homer in there.
Pitch Counts:
Cardinals: 134, 37 BF (8 IP)
Cubs: 141, 36 BF
Such was the unusual nature of the Cub outburst on Friday, the numbers aren’t wildly different. Yes, the Cardinals faced one more batter in one whole inning less. That said, an 11-3 game is off way different. The Cubs only left two men on base. The Cubs were 1-2 with runners in scoring position. Two at bats with runners in scoring position and 11 runs anyway.
Both teams rode their starter. John King, even with three runs allowed, threw only 19 pitches. He hadn’t pitched in a few days. The Cardinals should have their full pen available Saturday. Caleb Thielbar faced one batter for the Cubs. Porter Hodge threw 16. The only Cub reliever who looks to be down Saturday is Jon Berti. It’s hard to imagine him throwing again after throwing 25 pitches in the ninth.
Three Stars:
This is tougher than it usually is. But I think Michael Busch gets the nod. Four hits in four at bats. Three of them were homers and he drove in five runs all together.
Pete Crow-Armstrong had four hits as well and two of them were homers.
Colin Rea. This was a big start ahead of at least a modified bullpen day. There is no pitcher available to the Cubs Saturday who they will be comfortable seeking to face 27 batters.
Game 88, July 4: Cubs 11, Cardinals 3 (53-35)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Colin Rea (.146). 6⅔ IP, 24 BF, 1 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 4 K (W 6-3)
Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.138). 4-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
Sidekick: Michael Busch (.121). 4-4, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 3 R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Kyle Tucker (-.029). 0-4
Goat: Ian Happ (-.015). 1-4, 2B
Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.009). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki started the scoring with two outs in the first. (.108)
*Cardinals Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s fly out in the bottom of the first, the game still scoreless. (.022)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
1%
Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(2 votes)
112 votes total
Yesterday’s Winner: Cade Horton 191 of 223 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +26
Matthew Boyd +15
PCA 14.5
Shōta Imanaga +13
Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
Jon Berti -9
Julian Merryweather -15
Ben Brown -17
Seiya Suzuki -19
Dansby Swanson -24.33
Up Next: The Cubs will seek a fifth straight win and their eighth in their last 10 games. Drew Pomeranz (2-1, 0.00, 23⅓ IP) gets the opener role. Drew is, without question, my favorite story of 2025. As fun as it is to watch PCA and Busch emerging as true stars in this league, or even Seiya Suzuki to a lesser extent, I love watching a guy who hadn’t thrown a major league pitch in four years. Who will get the bulk behind Drew? Jordan Wicks’ MLB totals this year are only two innings over two games, allowing three runs in one game and picking up a loss in the other game. Chris Flexen (5-0, 0.62, 29 IP) is the other most likely option.
I can definitely see Drew for an inning, Chris for as long as he is effective and then Jordan for as long as he’s effective. That makes an interesting left/right/left combo platter. As noted, Craig Counsell should have a full range of options and then Matthew Boyd goes Sunday before an off day Monday. This is a spot where he can really deploy the bullpen hard.
The Cardinals start lefty Matthew Liberatore. The 2018 first-round pick of the Rays has won his last three starts. One of those was a two runs in seven innings start against the Cubs in St. Louis. His home/road splits are pretty dead even. His day/night splits favor day games. This looks like a tough one on paper. I had said that the Cubs would be well served to ambushing the Cardinals Friday and they did. Then you have to hope you can win behind Matthew Boyd on Sunday. So that leaves trying to steal Saturday’s game.
Games are not won on paper.