The Detroit Tigers (56-34) and the Cleveland Guardians (40-47) wrap up a 3-game series at Progressive Field Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET (MLB.TV Free Game of the Day). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 3-3
The Tigers nipped the Guardians 1-0 behind RHP Casey Mize, as he outdueled LHP Logan Allen in a pitcher’s duel. Mize allowed 4 hits and 1 walk across 7 scoreless innings. 1B Spencer Torkelson cracked a solo homer, his 20th long ball of the season, as he produced the only offense Mize would need. Torkelson has hit safely in 8 straight games, going 11-for-31 (.355) to push his batting average from .224 to .234 since June 26.
Detroit gave up 20 runs over the final 2 games in Washington Wednesday and Thursday, but has allowed just 1 run through the first 2 games of this series — while scoring only 3 in a pair of wins. The Under has a 6-4 edge in the past 10 games.
Cleveland is in the midst of a 9-game skid and has been shut out 5 times during the slide, including Saturday’s 1-0 loss. It’s tough for the pitching staff, as the Cleveland starters and bullpen have combined to allow just 4 total runs in the past 3 games, or 1.33 runs per game. The Under is 5-1 in the past 6 games for the Guardians, while going 14-4 in the past 18 games since June 15 in Seattle.
Tigers at Guardians projected starters
LHP Tarik Skubal vs. RHP Gavin Williams
Skubal (10-2, 2.15 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 0.83 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 through 109 innings.
Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 13 K in 3-0 home victory vs. Minnesota Twins last Sunday (June 29)2025 road stats: 2-2, 2.28 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 7 startsLast 5 starts: 5-0, 1.89 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 10.5 K/92025 vs. Guardians: 1 home start (May 25), win, CG, 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 13 K in 5-0 victoryCareer vs. Guardians (regular season): 3-2, 2.84 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 9 starts (1 CG)
Williams (5-4, 3.86 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 86 1/3 innings.
Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 5-2 road setback vs. Chicago Cubs Tuesday2025 home stats: 4-2, 3.72 ERA (46 IP, 19 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 9 starts2024 vs. Tigers: 1-1, 1.65 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 12 H, 4 BB, 22 K in 3 startsCareer vs. Tigers: 1-2, 2.53 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 18 H, 6 BB, 26 K in 4 starts
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Tigers at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:12 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Tigers -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Guardians +180 (bet $100 to win $180)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (-135) | Guardians +1.5 (+110)Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Tigers at Guardians picks and predictionsPrediction
Tigers 5, Guardians 0
The Tigers (-220) have their ace and potential Cy Young Award winner on the bump for the series finale, and that’s bad news for a Guardians offense that continues to struggle at the plate.
The last time Skubal faced the Guardians, he turned in a complete-game victory at Comerica Park. Cleveland has been shut out 5 times in the past 9 games, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Guardians get blanked again Sunday. However, you can’t risk more than 2 times your potential return.
PASS.
The TIGERS -1.5 (-135) are a better value on the run line. The Guardians have been getting phenomenal pitching in this series, allowing just 3 total runs, but they have nothing to show for it. It’s hard to imagine the Cleveland offense suddenly coming alive against one of the best in the majors.
If you’re a little more adventurous, consider the ALTERNATE FULL GAME SPREAD – TIGERS -2.5 (+125) for a much better value at plus-money.
UNDER 7.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board.
It’s hard to imagine the Guardians cobbling together much offense against the southpaw Skubal. On the flip side, Cleveland pitching has allowed just 3 runs in the first 2 games, so Detroit’s offense shouldn’t be able to take care of the Over on its own.
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