The Minnesota Twins experienced a monumental collapse in the final six weeks of the 2024 season, and three other American League Central teams overtook them in the standings and secured a spot in the postseason.

Part of that unsightly outcome lands squarely on the backs of the Twins themselves. Most of it, even. But it can’t be overlooked how brilliantly the Detroit Tigers played in the second half of last year, even after designating themselves as sellers at the deadline.

And with the Twins sitting at a 40-44 record entering July, it’s easy to envision a reality where they, too, sell off a few pieces by month’s end. Still, even if they are light sellers, what else would need to take place for Minnesota to go on a miracle run to the postseason, much like the Tigers did a year ago?

There are some interesting similarities between the clubs, as well as some significant differences. Time will tell if the Twins can put on a second-half surge, but that time feels like it’s running out with every loss.

And to be honest, this shouldn’t be seen as any sort of blueprint for the Twins. There isn’t really a way for a team to aim for this outcome. It’s mostly a matter of players making the most of their opportunity.

If the Twins are going to make that leap, here’s what it would probably have to entail.

Cy Young Caliber Arm Atop the Rotation

Simply put, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal absolutely carried the club to their first playoff appearance in a decade. His second half solidified his Cy Young award and put him squarely in the national spotlight as one of the best starting pitchers in the game.

In 15 starts after July 1st, Skubal pitched 91 innings of 2.46 ERA ball with a 31.5% strikeout rate. That would take quite the leap from a Twins pitcher to be able to have that kind of stretch.

Joe Ryan would probably be the lead candidate to accomplish anything close to that. Don’t get me wrong, Ryan has had a great, All-Star-worthy campaign so far, but he would need to take yet another pretty significant leap. Ryan has impressed with a 2.75 ERA across 17 games with a solid 28.2% strikeout rate.

Is it fair to expect even more from him in the season’s remaining months?

Four-Plus Everyday Contributors, and Then Some

This one feels like it’s going to be the hardest for the Twins to attain. Detroit’s offense was buoyed by four near-everyday players who stepped up and produced 15% or better than league average.

Not only did it include their premier outfielder, Riley Greene (135 wRC+ in 54 games), but also supporting characters like Parker Meadows (142 wRC+, 50 games), infielder Colt Keith (121 wRC%, 75 games), and Matt Vierling (115 wRC+, 69 games). On top of that, two part-time standouts gave them even more gas. Former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, (125 wRC+, 38 games) and especially Kerry Carpenter (167 wRC+ in just 30 games), also helped lead the way.

For the Twins, they have a similarly premier outfielder in Byron Buxton (142 wRC+, 70 games) and utilityman Willi Castro (124 wRC+, 65 games), who have already shown the capability to produce. But beyond those two, it’s difficult to envision a supporting cast that goes five-deep of bats that are that much better than league average. Carlos Correa is expected to be among that class of hitters and even has a 124 wRC+ since the start of May.

Guys like Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, and Matt Wallner have been streaky, and former top prospects Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis haven’t provided nearly enough pop so far. Will a handful of these underperforming regulars all take the next step at the same time? Will Buxton and Castro maintain their current level of production?

True Grit

A true sign of how much magic was running through the veins of the Detroit Tigers last year, the club won a whopping 19 one-run games in the second half. They had the gumption to pull through in late and close situations. Some of that credit has to go to a rock-solid bullpen with tons of unexpected contributors.

The Twins have had a terrible time reeling in one-run wins so far this year. Before beating the Miami Marlins 2-1 on Wednesday, they went more than a month without tallying such a victory, and they lost nine of them in that span. Not only do those losses sting because it’s yet another step down into the hole that the club is trying to climb out of, but they’re deflating on the mental side of things.

Is it possible that the Twins could find their footing and regain some of the spark that propelled them to a 13-game win streak? Yes, it’s possible.

Am I expecting a second-half run from these Twins that I’ve been watching, who seem turned around and sparkless? I’m not, but it’s fun to think about what that could look like.

And you know what? The Tigers were probably thinking the same thing around this time last year.