The Arizona Diamondbacks (45-47) face the San Diego Padres (49-42) in the third game of a 4-game set Wednesday. First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Diamondbacks lead 3-2

After winning 6-3 Monday, the D-backs were shut out 1-0 Tuesday night. RHP Merrill Kelly was solid (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB,4 K), but the team mustered just 3 hits and fanned 12 times. They’ll have another tough task going up against RHP Dylan Cease Wednesday. The Snakes are 4-6 over their last 10 games.

The Friars had just 4 hits, but 1B Luis Arraez left the yard for the lone run in the game and his fifth dinger of the year. RHP Nick Pivetta was money, going 5 2/3 shutout innings, allowing 2 hits and no walks while fanning 7. The Padres have traded wins and losses in the last 8 games.

Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters

RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Dylan Cease

Pfaadt (8-6, 5.42 ERA) makes his 19h start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 91 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K Thursday against the San Francisco GiantsLast 5 starts vs. Padres: 1-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 29 K’s in 28 IP2025 vs. Padres: 1 home start (June 15), loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 8-2 defeat

Cease (3-8, 4.62 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 through 97 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 5-1 setback Wednesday vs. Philadelphia Phillies3 career starts vs. D-backs: 1-1, 2.49 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 24 K’s in 21 2/3 IPMassive home/road splits: 3-2, 2.76 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 in 8 home GS vs. 0-6, 6.27 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 in 10 road GS

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Diamondbacks at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -102 | U: -118)Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictionsPrediction

Padres 3, Diamondbacks 2

Cease has been well below his normal self, but his wild home/road splits need to be adhered to. Current Padres hitters hit Pfaadt at a .349 clip. The one having the most fun is Arraez, who is 10-for-16 (.625) off him.

Take the PADRES (-140).

PASS and stick to the ML.

I’ll take BRANDON PFAADT UNDER 17.5 OUTS (-140), though. He has gone 6 IP once in his last 8 starts. He has gone Under this total in his last 3 GS against San Diego.

It’s slated to be 74 degrees with a 10-mph breeze coming in from left-center at Petco, which are identical conditions to Tuesday night. The Padres are 4-6 O/U in their last 10, and the D-backs are 6-4. Eight of those Arizona games were in the desert, though.

The Under cashed Tuesday night, and I’m expecting a total that is a half-run higher to do it again. Give me the UNDER 8 (-118).

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