As we roll into mid-July, the Yankees have one series left before what feels like a mercifully timed All-Star break (recent success against Seattle notwithstanding). The Cubs, who sit atop the NL Central, are coming to the Bronx for the first time since 2023 with a three-game set on deck. It will be a battle of baseball’s two best outfields; buoyed by MVP candidates Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker as well as the slugging Seiya Suzuki, who’s split time between the corners and DH, and the ever-consistent Ian Happ, the North Siders lead all of baseball in outfield wins above average, with the Yankees — headlined by Aaron Judge — close behind.
Each team will start an All-Star pitcher this weekend in what figures to be a valuable test for the Yankees, still reeling from a recent skid that dropped them out of first place in the AL East.
Friday: Carlos Rodón vs. Chris Flexen (7:05 pm ET)
Carlos Rodón will draw the start in the series opener. The left-hander has performed well enough — with a 3.30 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 111.2 innings — to be listed on many All-Star snubs lists, a distinction as time-honored and nearly as encouraging as selection to the Midsummer Classic itself. Rodón’s last time out was likely his worst showing of the season, allowing seven runs (six earned) in five innings to the Mets. That matched his season low in innings, a remarkable achievement in durability in today’s game.
Until late on Thursday, the Cubs had yet to announce a starter for this game. They used an opener in the role last time. Veteran reliever Drew Pomeranz drew the start, allowing two runs to the Cardinals while recording only one out. Those were the first runs the left-hander had permitted all season in his 27th appearance, ending a remarkable run that could have earned him All-Star consideration of his own during his first healthy season since 2021. Chris Flexen, who’s served in a swingman role for the Mariners, Rockies, and White Sox in recent years, served as the bulk arm, allowing one run in 3.2 innings. Barring a last-minute call-up, expect the Cubs to deploy a similar opener strategy tonight. (Indeed, they decided to go with Flexen.)
Saturday: Max Fried vs. Matthew Boyd (1:05 pm ET)
Unlike his teammate and fellow southpaw, Max Fried was no All-Star snub, instead receiving his third nod and first for the AL squad. He leads all of baseball in wins (11) and winning percentage (.846) while allowing just 30 earned runs in 119 innings. Beginning with his first Yankees start allowing more than two runs, a six-run flameout against the Dodgers on May 30th, he’s looked more like a mortal, seeing his ERA jump by nearly a run. Still, his 3.67 ERA during that stretch is far from alarming.
Fried is slated to face perhaps this year’s most unlikely All-Star selection. After an up-and-down, nine-year career spent mostly in Detroit that saw him register a 5.08 ERA, Matthew Boyd made a minor statement return in eight starts with the Guardians last year, posting a 2.72 ERA along with a career-best strikeout-to-walk ratio. The 34-year-old has built on that late-career reclamation this season, going 9-3 with a 2.52 ERA while walking just 23 in 103.2 innings. Boyd dominated the Cardinals for five innings his last time out, keeping them off the scoreboard while punching out nine.
Sunday: Will Warren vs. Shota Imanaga (1:35 pm ET)
It’s been an inconsistent rookie season for Will Warren. His fastball has been among baseball’s best, providing 13 runs of value as he’s struck out more than 11 per nine innings. But, despite grading out above average with a Stuff+ rating of 106, opponents are demolishing his sweeper to the tune of a .319 batting average against. After an eight-run implosion on July 2nd, the right-hander bounced back nicely his last time out, keeping the Mariners off the board for 5.2 innings. Warren still leads all rookies with 111 K’s.
For their last game before the break, the Cubs are expected to give the ball to Shota Imanaga. After a sensational MLB debut last year that saw him finish top-five in both Rookie of the Year and Cy Young voting in the NL, the 31-year-old has been every bit as effective when healthy this season, posting a 2.80 ERA through 11 starts. He has seen his strikeout-to-walk ratio more than halved from its league-leading peak last season, precipitating an expected ERA of 4.19. His last time out, Imanaga held the Twins to two runs over 5.2 innings.