Last season was a disappointing one for Jhoan Duran. After quickly emerging as one of the game’s elite closers, posting a 2.15 ERA while punching out 173 in 130 innings between 2022 and 2023, the right-hander missed the season’s first month with an oblique strain. He initially performed well upon his return but fell off after the All-Star break, allowing more than a run every other inning down the stretch. As Duran went, so went his team; in second place in the Central and 12 games above .500 as late as September 5th, the Twins finished in fourth place at 82-20, a stunning collapse for the reigning division champs.
Still, there were plenty of signs for optimism. For one, opponents had a batting average on balls in play of .452 off Duran in the second half, a shocking number that suggests a slew of bad luck. In addition, his 37:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio indicated his stuff still played at an elite level. These factors led to an encouraging 2.76 expected ERA for the 2024 season. That expectation has been borne out this year. Minnesota’s relief ace is back in a major way, posting a microscopic 1.52 ERA through 42 appearances. He’s blown just two saves, helping stabilize a bullpen that has the AL’s fourth-worst ERA despite his exploits.
Duran is finding success with an evolving formula. For the first time in his career, he’s throwing his “splinker” most frequently. The pitch is a splitter-sinker hybrid which befuddles hitters through its unique blend of velocity and movement. “I don’t know how you prepare or game-plan or think about a pitch like that as a hitter,” said Twins manager Rocco Baldelli of the splinker. “I’ve never seen anything like it in my life. I can honestly say that.”
His deployment of the splinker has been to great effect. Opponents are slugging just .238 against the pitch, which has racked up nine runs of value. Baseball Savant categorizes the pitch as a splitter which makes it, along with Toronto starter Kevin Gausman’s splitter which has been thrown nearly thrice as often, the most valuable splitter in baseball per run value, which is a counting stat. This increased reliance on the splinker makes Duran’s triple-digit fastball more of a complementary pitch, and batters are slugging more than 150 points lower against the heater than they did last year.
This shift has the fireballer’s strikeout numbers, while still above average, less spectacular than in years past while his groundball rate of 70.1 percent is second-to-none. He rounds out his arsenal with a knuckle curve against which opponents are yet to record an extra-base hit and a sweeper he’s thrown 52 times without allowing a hit of any kind.
As in his sensational 2023, Duran’s walk rate is also below league average, a potential issue ameliorated by his ability to induce groundballs and strikeouts as well as the fact that he’s yet to allow a long ball this season. And, while effective against righties, the right-hander has been particularly dominant against lefties this season, holding them to a miniscule .189 slugging percentage in 74 at-bats.
All of this makes Jhoan Duran a slam-dunk target for any contender in need of bullpen help, which is to say pretty much all of them. As the purely aesthetic cherry on top, the man also has one of the cooler entrances in all of baseball, as demonstrated last night before his save against the Pirates.
That all leads to the million-dollar question: will the Twins make Duran available at the deadline? At 46-48, the team is only 3.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot, albeit while also trailing a few other clubs. Even if the Twins do decide to punt on this season, their 24-year-old closer is under club control through 2027.
Minnesota, which has expensive pieces like shortstop Carlos Correa, center fielder Byron Buxton, and starter Pablo López signed through the rest of that window as well, may be reticent to part with an arm of Duran’s caliber unless the front office is confident that the return can help them win as soon as 2026. Still, with as fickle as relievers can be and how in demand they’ll likely be at this year’s deadline, expect the Twins to at least listen on Duran as they hover on the fringes of the playoff race.