The Tampa Bay Rays (50-45) and the Boston Red Sox (51-45) play the third game of a 4-game series Saturday. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 4-1

After edging the Rays 4-3 in Thursday’s opener, the Red Sox followed up with a 5-4 win Friday to extend their win streak to 8 games. Boston has been red-hot, posting back-to-back sweeps over the Washington Nationals (July 4-6 on the road) and Colorado Rockies (Monday through Wednesday at home). The Red Sox are 6-2 on the run line during that stretch and now sit at an even 48-48 on the season.

While the Rays are 0-2 straight up in the series, they’ve covered the run line in both games. Tampa Bay, currently fourth in the AL East, has dropped 4 of its last 5.

Rays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Shane Baz vs. LHP Garrett Crochet

Baz (8-4, 4.34 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 103 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in 5-1 defeat at Detroit Tigers Monday2025 road stats: 3-2, 3.10 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 8 startsCareer vs. Red Sox (regular season): 3-0, 2.96 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.62 WHIP, 10 H, 5 BB, 29 K in 4 starts

Crochet (9-4, 2.39 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 120 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-4 victory at Nationals Sunday2025 home stats: 1-3, 2.79 ERA (48 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 8 startsCareer vs. Rays: 0-0, 7.71 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 3 relief appearances

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Rays at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:59 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rays +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Red Sox -200 (bet $200 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-135) | Red Sox -1.5 (+110)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)Rays at Red Sox picks and predictionsPrediction

Red Sox 5, Rays 4

PASS.

There’s no playable moneyline value. With how well Crochet has pitched, the Rays (+165) are too risky. Similarly, the Red Sox (-200) are far too expensive.

BET RAYS +1.5 (-135).

The Rays are 6-2 in Baz’s road starts, though they’ve gone just 2-6 in their last 8 games away from home. However, they’re 6-2 on the run line during that stretch, with 4 of those losses coming by a single run.

The Red Sox sit in the bottom half of the majors when it comes to covering at home this season, going just 21-29 on the run line. Back RAYS +1.5 (-135).

BET OVER 8 (-105).

The Red Sox have been surging offensively, going 7-1-1 O/U in their last 9 contests. They have scored at least 4 runs in all 9 of those games. Boston is 2-0 in Crochet’s last couple of starts as well.

The Rays are 3-3-1 O/U in their last 7 games and have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of those contests. Back OVER 8 (-105).

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